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Rob Schmied

@robschmied.bsky.social
509 followers 248 following 20 posts

Investor, Trader, Former Investment Banker and CFO. Skeptical about most things. And an occasional whale video in season. Scottsdale and Maui.

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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Hence why they created a sham vesting schedule. Is there a viable "business purpose" for Musk to agree to voluntarily risk $100b on vesting that he would otherwise own outright?
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Its all @niedermeyer.online Surprised his excellent blog hasn’t received more attention.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Imagine the surprise when you are deeply in love and get an invoice from Jean Luc Brunel for the woman of your dreams…..priceless stuff.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Got it. I meant the son should spill the beans and profit. He just seemed naive and in love, but perhaps he has unclean hands also. Great work.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Fink should just take a massive short position and spill the beans.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
So the reason Kimbal hasn’t resigned yet is that if what you are suggesting is true, then Elon would need to follow suit if ultimately proven to be true. Are we one redaction away from the ultimate key man risk materializing?
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Reposted by Rob Schmied
e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 11/02/2026
New blog post: Musk-Epstein: Year One niedermeyer.online/2026/02/10/m...
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
This madness won't end until Trump supports Hamas buying US Steel $X
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
10-Q does outline the directors settlement of $277m received and $176m paid to lawyers....
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
*$450m, not $550m.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
5. Net Inc was exactly $420m (haha) 6. D&A lower (counterintuitive) although I believe they use Units of Prod method for some plants (Berlin?) 7. Inventory probably needs impairment 8. No impact from the Director settlement (proxy info by 4/30) 9. Nothing for Tornetta yet
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
3. Other non-current assets rose by $750m in the quarter. Total approaches $5b. They list some of the components throughout, but over half is unexplained. Deserves a schedule. 4. Construction in Progress jumped over $500m in the quarter, total $7.3b.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
2. Max exposure under RVG increased by $550m in the quarter, up to $1.9b. Have recorded zero reserves for this. Using their old 50% of original price guarantee metric, this suggests over $1b of auto sales were under RVG deals, or over 8%.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Tesla 10-Q items of note.... 1. "the Company’s Board of Directors has established a Special Committee to consider certain compensation matters involving Mr. Musk"
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
The other big point is that X already owned between 15%-20% of xAI (initially 25% but has been diluted). So assume it is now 15%. Following this deal, the X shareholders will own 29%. So they sold out the economics of the Twitter business for (only) 14% of a massively overinflated startup.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
"Elon's Q" hit an all time high of 7 today Elon's Q is the ratio of: Tesla's market cap loss since Inauguration / Estimated DOGE savings Imagine saving the US government a dollar and losing 7 dollars doing it. That isn't very efficient.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
I would not have expected any prior disclosures regarding this, although it is possible it appears in an updated risk factor in the future or perhaps in proxy disclosure regarding his responsibilities.
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
🫡
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
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Rob Schmied @robschmied.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Good first day on the water in Maui.
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