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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

One trend worth watching here, which could extend into next month's Markey-Moulton race in Massachusetts: The voters most enthusiastic about generational change in New England seem to be senior citizens.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

New: Israel has not been a top issue in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire's 1st District -- but one candidate has received over ~$300K from AIPAC/UDP donors. And a poll shows someone in the race views it as a potential vulnerability. www.huffpost.com/entry/aipacs...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Two things are true. 1. Progressives' biggest wins this cycle -- NYC Mayor, Maine, Michigan, even CA-22 -- have come when the establishment tries to pretend it is still 2006 or 2018. 2. The "McMorrow would've won!" case has some notable holes in it. www.huffpost.com/entry/centri...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

New: The Nirav Shah talking point that Troy Jackson called “bullshit,” and which nicely illustrates the difference between the two progressives seen as the leaders in an unpredictable battle to replace Graham Platner on the ballot. www.huffpost.com/entry/progre...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Notable: The narrow focus on abortion and voting rights is a contrast to the ACLU's political activity in Trump 1.0, which touched on third rails like immigration, criminal justice and ultimately trans rights. They say they're focused on what will be most effective.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

Giving keynote speech at South Carolina Dem Party dinner, @andybeshearky.bsky.social had a long riff going after "advocacy speak," specifically calling out the terms "justice-involved population," "substance use disorder" and "food insecurity."

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

There's been some suggestions Platner's working-class appeal is mostly a myth, but a new Pan-Atlantic poll has him up 48-41 over Collins, and notably outperforming Gideon among voters in the 2nd District and those w/o a college degree. panatlanticresearch.com/omnibus

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

New: The apparent GOP meddling campaign in Nebraska's 2nd District is prompting some head-scratching among Democrats. Rs seems to want to run against the moderate candidate who would NOT give them an outside shot at eliminating Omaha's electoral vote. www.huffpost.com/entry/republ...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

New: Democrats are winning the redistricting wars. A key reason why? They were facing bottom-up pressure from their grassroots, while Republicans were dealing with top-down pressure coming from Trump. One is easier to resist than the other. www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

What will determine tonight's Virginia redistricting vote: What % of Harris voters vote 'no' -- if it's between 5-10%, Democrats probably get their new maps. If it's around 15%, things look really good for the GOP. www.huffpost.com/entry/vote-t...

The key is whether a chunk of the voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 will vote against drawing the new maps. If the number is 10% or less, Democrats are confident they’ll prevail. As it approaches 15%, Democratic operatives said Republicans are more likely to triumph.

Another Democrat who was briefed on the race but did not have authorization to speak to the press, said internal polling showed stubborn resistance to new maps among many white liberals in Northern Virginia – a bloc of voters long attracted to “good government” positions on issues like gerrymandering – even as Black voters throughout the state quickly got behind the new maps. But more recent polling has shown that resistance to drawing new lines is fading in the heavily Democratic suburbs of Washington, D.C.

In many cases, voters simply did not understand why Democrats needed to draw the new maps – a sharp contrast to a successful November referendum in California, where voters understood the state’s new maps, eliminating five GOP-held seats, were meant to be a direct response to Texas’ elimination of five Democratic-held seats.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Two noteworthy tidbits: - Some progressives clearly see crypto as the lesser of two evils, both politically and morally, when compared to AIPAC. -Crypto gave IL09 winner Daniel Biss an 'A' on their scorecard, which he seemed baffled by in an interview.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Black voters also said they felt abandoned by their civic and political leaders, feeling Congressional Democrats, civil rights groups and Black church leaders weren't doing enough to push back on Trump.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

New: Polling from a coalition of Black civic groups and unions found fear of violence + retaliation is keeping Black voters away from political participation in Trump 2.0, helping lead to a "resistance of privilege." www.huffpost.com/entry/black-...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Biss campaign is out with an internal poll showing him with a substantial lead over Fine and Abughazaleh, 31% to 18% to 18%

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Those who turn down the money (often but not always progressives) argue you can't stand up to Trumpian corruption while taking cash from those who enable it. Those who take it say the other side rarely has totally clean hands. See this exchange between Craig and Flanagan:

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Most interesting part in the new Pew poll on Trump is the decline in GOP confidence, which is really starting to mirror Dems losing confidence in Biden. Just 2/3 of GOP-leaning voters think he has the mental capacity to do the job and only 42% thinks he acts ethically.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

From Nate Cohn's latest newsletter, this is why it's a lot more useful to think about "affordability" in terms of the cost of living rather than strictly about inflation: Voters are concerned about the cost of a middle-class life more than about the cost of things they buy daily -->

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Talarico already has a super PAC -- a sign of how operatives expect most major Democratic senate campaigns to have big money outside backing. Big driver of this: Fear of AIPAC and crypto money. www.huffpost.com/entry/jasmin...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Now splashed @huffpost.com: The $100 million three-way battle over AI that is splitting both parties and the tech industry and could define the midterms. Populist backlash to data centers vs. the AI industry vs. scientists worried about existential risk. www.huffpost.com/entry/the-co...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

Incredible finding from Pew: Out of 107 democracies worldwide, only one -- Micronesia -- draws legislative districts through the same convoluted process the United States does. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

New from @delaneyrules.bsky.social: House Ag Committee chair says RFK push to let states ban unhealthy food from SNAP will drive up grocery prices, an intra-party break over a key part of the MAHA Agenda. www.huffpost.com/entry/snap-j...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

NEW: The redistricting wars aren't going to end with the midterms. -Hochul committed to pushing through new maps in NY, Bennet + Weiser say the same in Colorado -Dems will look to redraw in Wisconsin if they win a trifecta - other possibilities in MN, NV, MI. www.huffpost.com/entry/the-re...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

New: With Crockett's entrance into Texas Senate, the Democratic Party is starting to see the downsides of its Tea Party moment. -Dem Sens largely avoid weighing in on the race. -TX-Sen not high enough priority at the moment for establishment to spend big political capital to keep her out.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

New Pan-Atlantic Research Center poll of Maine Dem Gov. Janet Mills 43% GOP Sen. Susan Collins 43% Dem Graham Platner 43% Collins 42% In the Dem primary, they have Mills up 47% to 37% over Platner, with big splits around age and gender. hs-21701012.f.hubspotstarter.net/hubfs/217010...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Absolutely bonkers details here about how Democrats trying to defang a corruption watchdog in New Jersey treated Sen. Andy Kim when he tried to speak against it. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/n...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

The COVID backlash theory was popular among a certain group of very online writers and thinkers, but a simple look at its total absence from paid political media would have told you it wasn't actually a big vote mover for either party, especially after 2020.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Incredible world cloud results from this poll: The old vs. the unknown.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

New: The most surprising part of the 2025 elections, and one with major implications for 2026, is how the GOP candidates have barely even tried to distance themselves from an increasingly unpopular Trump. www.huffpost.com/entry/2025-e...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

The strategy is also inherently causing conflicts with the party's insurgents, who want a clean break from unpopular party leadership + young, media-savvy candidates. Platner is probably the candidate who best embodies the insurgency at the moment. www.huffpost.com/entry/the-de...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Why are Senate Democrats recruiting 77-year-old Janet Mills? Because they're focused proven vote-winners: Everyone likes that they recruited Cooper + Brown. But the same philosophy is leading them to back Mills, Stevens and Turek, which is causing grumbling. www.huffpost.com/entry/the-de...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

This is a noteworthy escalation from Sanders, who actually very rarely gets crosswise with the DSCC -- the only time he has endorsed against the DSCC's pick in his career was in Kentucky in 2020. This cycle, he's backing both Platner + El-Sayed.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

New Pew Research Center data: 66% say Trump has improperly used his office to punish people 62% say he's improperly encouraged fed'l investigation of his opponents 61% say he's improperly used his office to enrich himself. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

Polis vs. Whitmer in the most explicit Democrat vs. Democrat argument we've seen so far on tariffs.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Dow down 2,000 points, proving this has all been a master plan by Trump NEC Director Kevin Hassett to make his book relevant again.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Top seven donors in the 2024 election were all solidly Republican, gave campaigns and super PACs a combined $1 billion. Graph from @opensecrets.org: www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/03...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

This was the Democrat's closing message in a special election upset in PA tonight: "On Tuesday, you’ll get to make the choice between more Musk, or Lancaster values." lancasteronline.com/news/politic...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

Related: Voters’ top four concerns about Elon Musk all have to do with Social Security, per Democratic polling outfit Blueprint.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

For example, these are from a former top Biden policy advisor and a former DSCC executive director. Neither could remotely be called a progressive bomb thrower.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Quinnipiac out with some of the first polling I've seen on a potential shutdown: 31% would blame Congressional Republicans 32% would blame Congressional Democrats 22% would blame President Trump 15% not sure poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

One thing worth watching: How Trump’s relative weaknesses shape the nature of the resistance to him. Many things people now knock Dems for focusing on in Trump 1.0 — immigration, racism — were his major weak points then. For right now, it’s the economy.

CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
March 6-9
Opinion of Trump's
Handling of Economy

             Approve   Disapprove
Now           44%         56%
March '20     54%         42%
March '19     51%         42%
March '18     48%         45%
March '17     55%         41%

March 6-9
How Trump Is Handling
His Job as President

Approve       45%
Disapprove    54%

Margin of error: +/-3.3% pts

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

reality show host president, podcast host vice president

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Incredible survey here, conducted by one of Trump’s pollsters for an Elon-backed group, showing extending health care subsidies is far more popular with swing-district voters than extending the Trump tax cuts.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

Innovative strategy from a pro-Ukraine Republican congressman here, arguing abandoning Ukraine would be DEI.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

FTC/DOJ keeping the Biden-era merger guidelines is a win for the small handful of Dems/progressives who insisted the Trump admin was sincere about antitrust enforcement. But we’re also only less than a month into the admin, so...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Two recent poll findings show the public would clearly start on the side of the judiciary in a fight w/ Trump. Pew: Just 33% of the country thinks Trump shouldn’t have to “worry so much” about Congress/the courts. Marquette: 83% say the president has to follow a SCOTUS ruling.

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

New Gallup poll: 45% plurality of Dems/Dem-leaning indys want the party to become more moderate, compared to just 22% who want it to stay the same and 29% who want it to become more liberal. Big shift from 2021. news.gallup.com/poll/656636/...

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Kevin Robillard @robillard.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Congress, after negotiating a bipartisan deal because they couldn’t pass a clean CR, only to have Musk + Trump blow up said deal, have their preferred option fail, and then ultimately getting ready to pass a clean CR in the end anyway.

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