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Riordan Frost

@riordanfrost.bsky.social
274 followers 118 following 45 posts

Researcher at @harvard-jchs.bsky.social focused on housing, demographics, migration, inequality, and climate change.

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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Happy #MapMonday! This interactive map of interstate migration from Pew has a striking finding: pandemic-era migration into New England wasn't driven by young adults, but instead by higher-income working-age & retirement-age movers. www.pew.org/en/research-...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Webinar alert! I'll be a panelist today (Thurs 9/10) in a journalist-focused webinar on using demographic data to inform stories, hosted by @shorensteinctr.bsky.social & Pew Charitable Trusts. Joining Alexandre Fall & Sol Baik, moderated by Clark Merrefield: shorensteincenter.org/event/data-a...
shorensteincenter.org
Data, aging and housing: Reporting on demographic changes and migration in the U.S. - The Shorenstein Center
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Gen Alpha has 2M fewer people than Gen Z did at the same age—and low immigration means they won't close that gap by their prime formation years. That's one of two headwinds facing young adult HH growth. The other: affordability. My @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/afforda...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Declining immigration is undermining national population growth, per the @harvard-jchs.bsky.social State of the Nation's Housing report, and my most recent blog post explains how that breaks down on the local level: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/declini....
jchs.harvard.edu
Declining Immigration Undermines Urban and Rural Population Growth
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
#MapMonday: how did sheltered homelessness change by state in Jan 2025? Per @airbrycki.bsky.social, an overall decline was driven by drops in NY, IL, CO & MA, offsetting increases elsewhere, including a hurricane-related jump in NC: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homeles... @harvard-jchs.bsky.social
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Reposted by Riordan Frost
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Our Center seeks applications for a 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to research topics related to home improvement and repair markets, housing preservation and adaptation, disaster recovery and climate resilience, demographics and finances, housing policy, and more. www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-ass...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Happy #MapMonday! Where are mobile homes most vulnerable to flooding? Find out in this interactive map from Headwaters Economics: headwaterseconomics.org/natural-haza.... Mobile homes are key to housing affordability, making these climate risks especially urgent to understand and address.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
How important has immigration been for recent state population growth? My new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post has an interactive state map exploring this question: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat.... The patterns imply that the recent & projected declines will be felt unevenly. #MapMonday
This state map shows immigration as a share of population growth from 2021-2025. In 7 states, there was aggregate population loss in this period, so no share is reported. For the remaining states, the share varies widely, from less than 25% to 100% (where immigration outpaces total population growth). States in which immigration is a lower share of their population growth are largely in the Sunbelt and Mountain West. States in which immigration is a higher share or outpaces their growth are concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
With high interest rates and prices, houses are less affordable than almost any time in recent memory. "The promise of the Sun Belt has often been more affordability... but as that wanes, that could discourage people," says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/...
theatlantic.com
How the Midwest Became the Place to Move
It’s (mostly) about affordability.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Immigration fell sharply in 2025, dragging down US population growth. Census projects that immigration will be even lower in 2026, which would likely result in historically low growth. I explore how this might affect states in a new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat...
Line chart of US net international migration, natural population change, and total population change, 2015–2026. Natural change (births minus deaths) declines, drops sharply in 2021, partly recovers by 2023, then flattens. Immigration dips around the pandemic, then spikes in 2022–2024, driving population growth, before falling in 2025. Census projections show immigration lower in 2026, with the newest projection below even the prior low-immigration scenario.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Household mobility fell to its lowest rate on record in 2024, with just over 1 in 10 households moving. Homeowners drove the decline as they faced high interest rates and home prices, while renter mobility stayed flat. @riordanfrost.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...
jchs.harvard.edu
Household Mobility Fell to Record Low in 2024
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
New ACS data show US household mobility hit another record low in 2024, driven by homeowners staying put amid high prices & rates—especially younger owners. In my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post, I unpack the data and reflect on what may have happened in 2025: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Happy #MapMonday! In top homebuilding metros, immigrants play a major role in supplying housing. Check out this bubble map (size = building permits, color = foreign-born share of the construction trades) in my latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homebui...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Rural home prices soared after the pandemic, by 36% in non-metro counties and fully 47% in vacation counties from 2020–2023, per new work from my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues @aherm.bsky.social & @pjwhit.bsky.social. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Where are deaths outpacing births? Per @washingtonpost.com, mostly older, whiter counties: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202.... Similar patterns in my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog on how migration has offset natural loss in many places: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....
washingtonpost.com
Column | In these U.S. groups, deaths now exceed births. What’s happening?
The United States is not far from the point where, each winter, deaths will regularly edge out births
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Net migration in rural areas surged during the pandemic—and remains high. In many of these communities, migration is offsetting steep natural loss. See where in the dark green on the map, and read more in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
The @gsd.harvard.edu seeks to appoint a distinguished scholar and/or practitioner with a deep understanding of housing markets, practice, and policy to serve as the Nicolas P. and Joan B. Retsinas Director of the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. www.jchs.harvard.edu/nicolas-p-an...
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
After losing population for much of the 2010s, rural areas have been consistently gaining population in the post-pandemic era, writes @riordanfrost.bsky.social in a new blog. Try the interactive map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
In just five years, the income needed to afford the median-priced home nearly doubled—from $68k to $131k. Getting payments back to 2020 levels would require interest rates to be nearly zero, per @harvard-jchs.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/lower-i... #FigureFriday #housing #affordability
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Happy #MapMonday! How much did each metro area depend on immigration for growth last year, and which ones will therefore feel the effects of the recent slowdown most acutely? Find out in the interactive map in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a....
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
The recent slowdown in immigration has big implications for pop growth in metro areas. My latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog discusses how metros will need to rely instead on (declining) natural growth or (unevenly distributed) domestic migration: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a...
jchs.harvard.edu
Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration
Population growth in many metropolitan areas is in doubt given the recent steep drop in immigration, which could undercut household growth and housing
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
With high home prices & interest rates, what's a first-time homebuyer to do? Move far afield, according to a @nytimes.com article from this weekend that cites the paper on millennial suburbanization that I co-authored with @airbrycki.bsky.social & Hyojung Lee: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/r...
nytimes.com
They Couldn’t Afford Homes in the Big City. So They Left.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
New research from @pewtrusts.org finds that new housing slows rent growth most for older, more affordable units, and not allowing more homes to be built—even for high-income residents—pushes up all rents. www.pew.org/en/research-...
pew.org
New Housing Slows Rent Growth Most for Older, More Affordable Units
The nationwide housing shortage has driven rents up more in low-income neighborhoods than in the U.S. overall, but in areas that have recently added large amounts of housing, rents have fallen the mos...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Today's affordability crisis is undercutting tomorrow's homeownership rate. This new paper projects a 1.6pp decline in the HO rate by 2035 on the low end and a 0.8 pp increase on the high end. The low scenario accounts for today's unaffordability by applying historically low HO gains to <35 cohorts.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Why haven’t downtown Boston housing prices appreciated? First, there has been an exodus to the suburbs, even among millennials who once seemed to embrace city life, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. But now, he says, “more millennials are suburbanizing than not.” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/30/b...
bostonglobe.com
Downtown Boston housing prices have stagnated. Here’s what that means for the city. - The Boston Globe
Housing prices in Massachusetts have soared in the last decade but have barely appreciated in parts of downtown. Why build more?
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Happy #MapMonday! How much did counties gain/lose from domestic migration in 2024? In my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper, I show that inflows to lower-density places were elevated through 2024. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/cGxny and the paper: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Here's a map from my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on pandemic-era changes in residential mobility! Shifts are emerging in Midwest and Northeast states, while much (but not all) of the Sunbelt keeps drawing more inflows. Explore the map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...
This state map shows how annual average net domestic migration changed from the pre-pandemic period (defined as 2010–2011 to 2019–2020) to the post-pandemic period (defined as 2022–2023 to 2023–2024). It shows that in many states in the southeast, inflows accelerated, which was also true for a few states in the Mountain West and New England. Many states in the Northeast and Midwest, on the other hand, had lower outflows after the pandemic than they did before, and several states in these regions also had net outflows before the pandemic but net inflows afterwards. Only a few states, namely California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Louisiana, had higher outflows than before the pandemic. Most states in the southwest had lower inflows than before the pandemic, and in the Pacific Northwest, Washington and Oregon both had net outflows after the pandemic, a change from having net inflows beforehand.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Many Americans who left large cities during the pandemic headed to suburbs, small cities, and rural areas. New York had one of the country’s largest net outflows during the pandemic, but the number of people leaving the state is now below prepandemic levels, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth by county in 2024? Immigration played a *big* role, esp. in higher-density areas. Domestic migration remained elevated in lower-density areas. Natural change played a smaller role. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/U6L0i/
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth in each county in 2023? Many urban counties relied most on natural change, many Sunbelt counties relied on domestic migration, and immigration played a role throughout the country. Explore the map: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QrDYw/4/.
This county map of the United States shows the largest source of population growth for each county in 2023, between three components: domestic migration, immigration, and natural change. For very few counties, there was net zero or loss in every component. For many urban counties, natural change is the largest component, while for much of the Sunbelt, domestic migration is the largest component. For much of the Midwest and Northeast, immigration was the largest component.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Happy #MapMonday! I’ve been thinking about baby boomers aging into older adulthood (61-79 this year), and it is apparent from this median age by county map that the effects of an aging population will be felt unevenly. Explore the map here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xFm4W/2/
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Is the draw of the Pacific Northwest over? There was a notable downturn during the pandemic in net inflows in Washington and Oregon, which were previously migration magnets, especially for young adults. These two maps show the slowdown in 26-34yo net inflows b/t 2019 and 2021.
This is a state map of the United States showing net domestic migration for those aged 26-34 in 2019. It shows that many southern and western states had high net inflows of young adults, while many Midwestern and Northeastern states had outflows.This is a state map of the United States showing net domestic migration for those aged 26-34 in 2021. It shows that many southern states had high net inflows of young adults, while many Midwestern states had outflows. Many western and Northeastern states had lower net inflows.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
A move away from housing first solutions for homelessness. Further criminalization of sleeping outdoors. Cuts to housing programs. These are some things advocates and people experiencing homelessness worry could be on the horizon. @riordanfrost.bsky.social streetsensemedia.org/article/what...
streetsensemedia.org
What Trump means for people experiencing homelessness
Street Sense has tried to map out how the federal government under Trump might change its approach to homelessness over the next four years.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Building on recent analysis by @yfreemark.bsky.social & Lindiwe Rennert at @urbaninstitute.bsky.social of the US DOT's plan to prioritize funding to places with high birth and marriage rates, here is a state map showing which states had above-national rates in 2023.
This state map shows which states have birth rates and marriage rates above the national rates in 2023. It shows that states with high birth and marriage rates are concentrated in the Midwest, Southeast, and Mountain West. States with neither are concentrated in the Northeast. A handful of western states have only high marriage rates, and a handful of mostly Midwestern states have only high birth rates.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
For #MapMonday, I wanted to add a different angle to the discussion of HUD's 2024 #homelessness point-in-time count by showing changes by state since the onset of the pandemic (i.e. Jan 2020–Jan 2024). Only 4 states had any decline, while 9 states saw increases of 50% or more. [Corrected legend]
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Happy #MapMonday! This map of natural population change in 2024 shows that most states had more births than deaths, which is true even for states with net migrant outflows (e.g. CA). Migration or immigration drive population change in most states, though, due to steadily declining natural change.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Further insight into the surge in immigration in the past few years is now available from the revised 2023 and 2024 estimates from Census Vintage 2024 PEP data. The maps below show that many states have had relatively high immigration rates, even some you might not expect.
A map of immigration rates by state for 2023. It shows that most states gained more than 4 immigrants per 1,000 people in 2023, with the exception of states in New England, the Mountain West, and Appalachia. States with the highest rates including populous states like California, Texas, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, and Florida, but also less populous states like Rhode Island, Utah, and Nevada.A map of immigration rates by state for 2024. It shows that most states gained more than 4 immigrants per 1,000 people in 2023, with the exception of states in New England, the Mountain West, and Appalachia. States with the highest rates including populous states like California, Texas, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, and Florida, but also less populous states like Rhode Island, Utah, Kentucky, Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Happy #MapMonday! Census 2024 state population estimates came out last month, and the domestic migration patterns are fascinating. Sunbelt is still gaining the most migrants but the flows have slowed, most notably for Texas and Florida. Bonus map to show change from 2023.
This state map shows rates of domestic migration by state in 2023. It shows that the states with the highest rates of inflows are in the Sunbelt and Mountain West, plus Delaware and Maine. States with the highest outflow rates are primarily high-cost states like California, New York, Hawaii, and Massachusetts.This is a map showing net domestic migration rates in 2024. It shows that the states with the highest rates of inflow are in the Sunbelt and Mountain West, though notably this does not include Texas and Florida (which have inflows but not as high). States with high rates of outflows include high-cost states like New York, Hawaii, and California.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
One immigration data issue recently has been the discrepancy b/t Census data and CBO estimates on levels of immigration, with CBO estimates being *much* higher. Well, Census retroactively updates its estimates with each new vintage of PEP data, and wow v2024 had a BIG change on immigration numbers:
This chart shows immigration estimates from 2021-2024 according to Census PEP Vintage 2023 estimates versus Vintage 2024 estimates. It shows upward revision in 2022 and 2023, with Vintage 2024 estimates 0.5 million and 1+ million more than Vintage 2023 estimates.
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
People are continuing to move away from big metro areas toward smaller and medium-sized cities and rural areas. @riordanfrost.bsky.social says the biggest factor for most people is cost. @marketplaceapm.bsky.social www.marketplace.org/2024/12/18/e...
marketplace.org
These exurbs were the most popular housing markets in 2024 - Marketplace
Zillow's list of the year's hottest housing markets is dominated by affordable exurbs — small cities within 90 miles of a major one.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
The typical approach of measuring race/ethnicity of a household by the householder misses the nuance of multi-race households. My @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues did a great deep dive into measuring race/ethnicity of all adults, with important findings: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/identif...
jchs.harvard.edu
Identifying the Racial and Ethnic Diversity Within US Households
As the US population grows more diverse, it is increasingly important to capture how different racial/ethnic groups fare in the housing market. But th
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Happy #MapMonday! At this time of year I think much more about how we stay warm, which relates to my state of electrification work from earlier this year. That included an interactive map showing share of HHs using only electricity for various uses (2020 RECS): www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/decarbo...
These are four state maps showing the share of households using only electricity for space heating, water heating, cooking, and all three. It shows that the highest shares of households using only electricity are in the southeast and Pacific Northwest. It also shows much higher shares using only electricity for cooking, followed by water heating, followed by space heating.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Happy #MapMonday! I've been researching domestic migration in the pandemic years, and one notable finding has been the uptick in rural migration. This county map shows net domestic migration in 2021, when there was a sudden shift in inflows to rural areas (and suburbs and smaller metros).
This is a county map of the United States that shows net domestic migration rates (per 1,000 people) in 2021, showing that rural areas across the country had net inflows that year. It also shows net inflows in the suburban counties of major metropolitan areas.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Happy #MapMonday! This week, a map I made for a @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on the history of public housing, which notes that PHA residents are concentrated in the eastern US. Big bonus that the data allowed me to include Puerto Rico! Alex's paper summary: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/can-pub...
This map of the United States shows the number of public housing residents by state in 2023. It shows that the states with the highest concentrations of public housing residents are in the eastern half of the country (both north and south), plus Texas and California. Puerto Rico also has a high number of public housing residents.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Happy #MapMonday! (A former Twitter tradition that I'm happy to revive in this cheerier place). Here's a state map showing how much immigrants make up the construction trades workforce around the US, which is substantial in many high-demand states. Source: ACS 2023.
US map showing the immigrant share of the construction trades workforce by state. Shows lower shares in much of the northern part of the country and higher shares in the Sunbelt and high-demand states like New York, California, Texas, and Florida.
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Hank Green @hankgreen.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
There is far more money to be made in housing than rocket launches. The reason there is no Elon Musk of housing is that it is several orders of magnitude harder than rockets.
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Teachers in three Massachusetts school districts are striking right now, and I just donated to the strike funds for all three (links below). My partner went on strike in Newton last school year – it went on for two weeks as the school committee stonewalled negotiations (🧵 1/4)
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Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies @harvard-jchs.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
In his recent blog on the topic, our @riordanfrost.bsky.social says immigrants accounted for 34 percent of those who worked in construction trades in 2023, far higher than their 18 percent share of the overall workforce. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-re...
jchs.harvard.edu
The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs
The recent surge in immigration has sparked a policy conversation about the role of immigrants in the housing market, particularly when it comes to ho
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Riordan Frost @riordanfrost.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
For my first Bluesky post, my most recent @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post on the role of immigrants in housing costs! I find that native-born adults drove pandemic-era household growth and the timing of the immigration surge came after the surge in home prices: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-re...
jchs.harvard.edu
The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs
The recent surge in immigration has sparked a policy conversation about the role of immigrants in the housing market, particularly when it comes to ho
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