iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Not a perfect match; I'm less extreme on planning and public v private than it came out. And I'm pretty sure Boulos is to my left 12axes.vercel.app/en

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Nice summary of Musk's "value proposition" in Ben Evans' latest column.

Excerpt from Ben Evans latest column: The pattern, as we all know, is that Elon Musk raises funding to build X by promising Y, and X often arrives years late (if ever - remember the Roadster? The mass-market car? Solar roofs? Hyperloop? Tunnels? Autonomy?), and maybe only half of what was promised… but half of X is still amazing, Y is coming soon (honest!) and meanwhile he’s promising Z, which is even more amazing. And as long as people are willing to invest in the promise of Z, it doesn’t matter that X, amazing as it was, ended up flat.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

A few seconds earlier it was wobbling above

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Helicopter landing in the middle of Mauerpark.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

On my way to the Substrates workshop in München.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Lovely anecdote about sir Tony Hoare skipping work to catch a film at the cinema.

About 50% of our meetings were spent talking about these matters relating to his career, while the rest varied across a vast range of topics. In particular, I wanted to ask him about a story that I had heard from a relative, that Tony - whilst working at Microsoft in Cambridge - would like to slip out some afternoons and watch films at the local Arts Picturehouse. This had come about because on one occasion a current film in question was brought up in conversation and it transpired Tony had seen it, much to the bemusement of some present. The jig was up - Tony admitted that, yes, sometimes he would nip out on an afternoon and visit the cinema. When I met Tony and gently questioned him on this anecdote he confirmed that indeed this was one of his pleasures and his position at Microsoft more than accommodated it.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 14/12/2025

From Ben Evans' latest newsletter: "Generative AI is effectively a private stimulus programme, funded mostly by advertising (and now debt)"

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

A movie that takes place where you're from.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

The first few paragraphs of this article are one of the best descriptions of Trump's governing style.

Never assume you know what Donald Trump is going to do or say next because it is unlikely he does. Take seriously what he says at any time because that probably accurately reflects what he is thinking, but some of his thoughts can be very transitory and are soon replaced by others. If you don’t like the positions being held on one day, push back because he might be convinced to hold a different position the next. Equally, when satisfied with today’s position do not assume it will last.

It is hard to overstate how little relationship Trump’s peacemaking efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine have to any normal diplomatic processes. Everything revolves around Donald Trump, which is how he likes it, rather than the peace he is supposedly promoting. Trump has made regular statements leading up to and after the meeting with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, and now leading up to and after the great gathering in the White House. Although each statement sounds definitive, when they are viewed in sequence, there is no consistency.

It is also a lazy sort of peacemaking, full of grandstanding but not the hard yards put in by past presidents when trying to address major conflicts. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton got into the details of the Arab-Israeli conflict and sought constructive solutions to the most intractable problems. Trump barely puts in hours where they put in days, and it is often unclear exactly what if anything has been agreed because so little is written down. Even if he can get Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin to meet and shake hands on a deal - today’s hope - the agreement would be at such a high level that the two sides would have many opportunities to pick away at the multitude of second- and third-order issues raised before they could move to implementation.

Nobody wants to fall out with Trump if it can avoided. The crazy nature of the process is obscured by the lashings of flattery and rhetorical concessions that all those who want something f…

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

This chart was an eye-catcher.

The chart shows how much each country's GDP changes when its capital's contribution is removed. Focusing on Berlin, Germany's GDP increases by 1.0% without Berlin. Other examples include Italy without Rome (-1.0%), France without Paris (-4.0%), and Greece without Athens (-13.0%).

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

Brazil is at 6% and Germany at 19%.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

As a German language learner, I didn't know this was an actual thing people did. Do they exchange friendship bracelets as part of the ceremony?

FT screenshot: Klingbeil (SPD name for finance minister) has built a strong working relationship with Merz (new chancellor), with the two men agreeing last month to address each other using the informal German “du”.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Przeworski's diaries are the best attempt at grasping current events in a historical and theoretical context.

Have the courts stopped anything? Mahmoud Khalil is still languishing in prison, Kilmar Abrego Garcia remains in El Salvador, ICE arrests whomever it wants, no university recovered its federal grants, federal employees were fired, several government agencies were dismantled and others experienced budget cuts, several law firms were disabled from appearing in federal courts. There are lots of temporary disabling orders issued by federal judges and the Trump administration never openly defied a court ruling but no court ruling has stopped it from doing what it wants. Am I missing something?

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Important to note that the Northern region is sparsely populated. In general, the Brazilian population is concentrated near the coast.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Got an unexpected visitor today. Not ominous at all.

A photo of an urban hawk perched on my balcony ledge, dragging a smaller bird, his prey, on his left claw.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

I can't vouch for the date source (ember energy?) but if it's accurate, I'm positively surprised. See the breakdown, with wind growing in the last ten years and solar in the last five.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

More reasons for concern: AfD nabbed 40% of previous non-voters in a high turnout election.

FT screenshot:

Non-voters mobilised for the far-right AfD
The highest turnout since reunification — 82.5 per cent — has largely benefited the AfD.

The far right’s surge came at the expense of all the other parties, but its greatest success was in mobilising non-voters: about 40 per cent of the 4.4mn voters the AfD gained were citizens who did not vote in 2021, according to exit polling by Infratest dimap for the broadcaster ARD.

The AfD gained 910,000 voters from the CDU/CSU, but lost about 1mn to them. This suggests that Merz’s gambit to campaign on tougher immigration laws — and break a German taboo by relying on the AfD votes to pass a migration motion in parliament — has been slightly positive, on a net basis.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

See Gaby Del Valle at @theverge.com www.theverge.com/politics/613...

Far from harmless, the crusade against DEI has been a way of laundering racist policies into the mainstream. The anti-woke right’s public focus on hollow cultural signifiers obscures their actual goal: undoing the gains made by the Civil Rights Movement. In this worldview, “DEI” goes beyond woke indoctrination, serving as a mechanism to elevate biologically inferior people to positions of power at the expense of the true elites. More than a racist project, it’s a racialist project — one whose leaders believe that traits like intelligence are racially determined. Hanania is one of the few activists willing to admit this publicly, but he’s far from the only one that believes it.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

The backlash

$I suspect we are at or near the peak of Trump vibes. Trump’s coalition ranges from a white nationalist right to Silicon Valley titans whose businesses are built on immigrant labor and genius and that’s already led to fractures over issues like H-1B visas. The divisions are growing bitter: Steve Bannon called Musk “evil” and vowed to annihilate his political influence. Even where the Trumpist right can find common ground, the narrowness of Trump’s victory will matter once he has to govern: House Republicans will need either near-perfect unity — which looks, so far, unlikely — or they will need Democratic votes to pass anything. Senate Republicans will face the frustrations of the filibuster. The routine paralysis and compromise of politics will feel like betrayals to many of Trump’s supporters. Governing is a buzzkill. And Trump is as he has always been: disinhibited, erratic, obsessed with loyalty and grievance, and quick to turn on those who question him.$

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 03/11/2024

This idea that the worse-but-better-marketed product always wins was a widely shared assumption until the 90s, there was a brief interregnum in the 00s (Google Search, iPhone, Gmail, GMaps all were better and won), but we might be going back to the historical norm.

Tweet showing MsTeams userbase growth towering over slack's.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 11/09/2024

This excellent write-up by Scott Chacon of GitHub’s success story got me in a nostalgic mood about tech in those days (the Web2.0 / iPhone era) blog.gitbutler.com/why-github-a...

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 03/09/2024

Essa nacionalização das corridas locais é um problema

O marqueteiro explica a razão, citando uma dificuldade para as campanhas políticas: vídeos de proposta têm tido baixíssimo engajamento, ainda mais em uma eleição municipal, em que falam sobre problemas locais. Os algoritmos das redes sociais têm por lógica outros tipos de segmentação (muito mais temática que geográfica) e ganham mais força quando trazem personagens e assuntos nacionais (no geral, todos os competidores ganharam grande alcance com posts sobre as Olimpíadas). Marçal, que virou meme com suas histórias (como ter aprendido a nadar em um dia e dado aulas de natação no seguinte) e ganhou adeptos com seus conselhos de vida, é por si só um assunto nacional.

“A gente tem um vídeo que eu considero bom, em que a Tabata está conversando com um mecânico que teve um problema com a Cracolândia – que começou a se espalhar para a frente da oficina dele – e começou a perder clientes. Tem um minuto, uma edição bacana, é rápido. Mas teve apenas umas 30 mil visualizações”, lamenta Simões.

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Rafael Ferreira @rff.bsky.social · 02/09/2024

SUVs and the prisoners dilemma: www.economist.com/interactive/...

But the odds that carmakers curb their heaviest, most dangerous vehicles are slim. American car-buyers value safety, but mainly for themselves, not society as a whole. And although regulators are tasked with protecting consumers, they rarely do so at the expense of choice, no matter how deadly the consequences. “There may be a certain point where you say, ‘You know what, passenger vehicles shouldn't be weighing this much,’” says Raul Arbelaez of the IIHS’s Vehicle Research Centre. “But it would, politically, be really hard to gain any momentum on that.” Finally the shift towards electric power is likely to increase their weight further, as battery-powered vehicles tend to be heavier than their internal-combustion equivalents.

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