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Amex still at top of group. Billings QTD +8% with strength in very discretionary travel & entertainment, especially airlines. Payment rates high in sign of upper-end confidence. $AXP also addresses bear thesis that customer base will be hardest hit by AI $XLF $XLY $JPM

Like $WFC, Capital One also sees ‘striking strength’. Spending strong, bank balances up, charge offs running better than expected. Importantly, seeing strength across income levels. This consumer is still not fazed by everything thrown at them 💪 $COF $BAC $XLF $XLY $AXP

$WFC less upbeat than $BAC on corporates. Not seeing greater use of revolvers, but still pretty constructive, seeing solid liquidity & no systemic credit issues. All in all, stable, leading to healthy labor markets. $JPM $XLF $V $MA $C $XLY

$WFC says consumer not just 'resilient' but 'strong'. Consistent spending on debit & credit week after week even if categories shift. Credit quality still excellent. Cites wage gains, strong labor market. Doesn't believe small rate rises will derail this. $BAC $JPM $XLY $XLF $XLI

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$WMT & $ stores claim higher income shoppers trading down (grocers ARE losing custom on pricing). Dollar General CEO says $100K+ income 'don't feel I'm higher income'. But even $DG compelled to cite 'resilient' consumer (& it sells to some very low income demos). $KR $DLTR $ACI

'Relative' weakness at food & drug stores (being eaten alive by $WMT, $DG, $DLTR & $AMZN), department stores (as usual) & furniture (although much better than recent trend. August was a very strong month. Again watch what folks do, not what they say... $M $KSS $DDS $KR $ACI

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

US retail sales ex autos/gas up very strong 5.6% y/y. Sheer breadth - every category up, even furniture after long run of weakness. Online stole show again +10% but very discretionary areas strong like eating out, electronics, sporting. 🔥🔥 $XLY $XRT $XLF $AMZN $WMT $WSM $BBY

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$BAC also sees signs of rising confidence amid SMEs. Using LOCs more, credit quality still good & loan growth solid. All that driving steady employment = solid economy. Of course, geopolitics & current administration keeps throwing googlies... $XLI $XLY $XLF $AXP

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

$BAC CEO highlights solid +4% US consumer spend in August. Gas part of that but so is very discretionary stuff. Cites wage growth, steady jobs & credit quality normalising near 40-year lows. No signs of stress: consumer 'continues to spend' $XLF $V $MA $XLY $XRT $AXP $COF

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Supermarkets back to dark old days of not growing sales & margin at same time. Kroger cuts sales guide 100bp as share loss to Walmart, Amazon & the dollar stores resumes. Only have themselves to blame for having once again let price gaps go too far. $KR $ACI $WMT $AMZN $DG $DLTR $TGT

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Mastercard (unsurprisingly) echoes Visa. August continued July trends. $MA also keen to point out how, across board, consumers spending on experiences like eating out, movies & travel. Strength in some of the most discretionary areas. $V $AXP $XLF $XLY $CCL $DAL $MAR $SBUX

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Friedman keeps insisting $RH has no price resistance. Complains about how promotional everyone else is. Yet sends a 70% off email virtually everyday & $RH gross margin down 200bp ex tariff refunds. Gets away with it too every time, at least with vacuous sell-side. 🤷‍♂️ $WSM

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Torturous $RH call, where Friedman only wants to talk transformational London & Estates. Meanwhile guides down yet again (what does Estates uplift imply about underlying biz...). Nada about Paris other than folks being away in August 😂. And remember gamechanger hospitality? $WSM

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Outside of consumption contrast between the well heeled & everyone else, Macys Q is ho hum. Sales strength did NOT drive margin upside - $M is only lifting guide by amount of tariff refund it is banking, a sign of how challenged core format still is. $DDS $TJX $ROST $ULTA

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

$M Q stands out in showing huge gulf between upscale shoppers & mainstream, though bit exaggerated due to unattractive core Macy's concept. Bloomies +11% vs Macys chain only +1%! And Bluemercury shows healthy appetite for premium beauty. $DDS $EL $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY $XRT

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

It isn’t just goods. Marriott says revpar ex World Cup maintained accelerated pace of Q2. Sheer breadth of improvement across brands, geography, room rates & occupancy = demand 💪. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $XLF $XLY $V $MA $AXP $DAL $UAL

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Visa update on consumer: spending both in US & overseas remains ‘strong & stable’ through August, US +9% after +10% in Q2. Cross border accelerated 200bp led by web. $V $MA $AXP $XLY $XLF $XRT $AMZN

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Some concern around expenses at Zara, driven by Iran/fuel dislocation but on demand, Q2 sales accelerated & have continued that current pace at world's #1 apparel retailer. Despite c70% of sales from mature Europe, highlighting how low $IDEXF market share still is. $XLY $XLF $XRT

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Not news to beauty market nerds, but still fascinating. Premium beauty is 50%+ of China market by value. Plus 2/3rds of beauty sales are online & that's on top of past dizzying channel shifts from Hainan to douyin to lots of other stuff! $LRLCY $LVMUY $EL $HESAY $PG

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

L'Oreal says beauty category momentum continued through July & August after Q2 acceleration. Strength across the globe including in China, with Lat Am the only soft spot $LRLCY $EL $XLP $ULTA $PG $UL $LVMUY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

$ZGN updates on current trade in upscale/luxury: July-August still strong. Zegna sales up 10%+ at retail, across regions led by US, Europe better post World Cup. Aware of reports of China weakness on new taxes, but saw strength there too. $TPR $RL $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $EL $AXP

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Unpretty Q, horrible guide & a bonus dividend cut. Campbell says 'increasing focus on consumer'! Hello where was the urgency yesterday? US food companies caught in bind as with outdated (unhealthy) portfolios & big channel shifts. $CPB $GIS $KR $KHC $ACI $WMT $DG $AMZN $DLTR $XLP

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

My concern with $ULTA is high margin & proliferation of $AMZN & other competition in beauty. That said, 70% of sales in premium beauty are better protected given still large (& falling) department store share. And premium is outperforming mass in US. $EL $LRLCY $TGT $M $DDS

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$ULTA comp solid 3.8% y/y and even better on 2-year stack, accelerating for seventh straight quarter. Beauty remains in a good place, led by premium with fragrance still outpacing total although $ULTA skincare share looks a touch soft. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY $UL $PG

With retail reporting largely complete, picture of healthy consumer with most improvement at lower end & apparel strength. But shows how much Nike troubles are dragging on sporting goods retail globally at time of relative plenty. $NKE $ADDYY $DKS $DG $DLTR $BBY $WSM $URBN $ROST

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Dollar General & Dollar Tree saw traffic inflect up, higher discretionary sales driving gross margin. Impressively at both, despite up sales, inventory lower. Folks upset about $DLTR investing tariff upside but churlish given big share gains vs supermarkets $DG $WMT $KR $ACI

Vs ongoing market narrative of pressured low end, highlight this Q in retail is upside at discounters led by accelerating traffic including Ross, Dollar General, Dollar Tree. NOT just trading down: discretionary goods very healthy. Implies pressure easing. $DLTR $ROST $DG $XLF $XLY $V

Strong electronics signal consumer willing to spend. Best Buy finally catches tailwind, lifting comp guide by 200+bp. But disappointing that despite big comp upside, margin ex tariff refunds fell. Surefire sign $BBY is cyclical/has no pricing power = low multiple stuff.

Retail reporting largely over & solid again reflecting healthy consumer. Individual standouts include $WSM & $TGT but generally not upside seen in Q1. But apparel as category strong across board from $ROST to $ANF & (outside travel & arrive) $URBN. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $V

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Sonoma says home furnishings market flat this Q but $WSM grew both furniture & non-furniture = 6.2% comp all share gain: acceleration both in-store & web, sign of brand heat. Says chasing inventory to meet demand. B2B also accelerated +15% as initiative working. $RH $ARHS $ETD

Alber says Sonoma is confident of delivering regardless of housing market weakness. Recognises market can change quickly but $WSM is positioned to respond quickly accordingly. $XLY $XLF $RH $HD $LOW $ARHS

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All three major Sonoma brands comped at 5% or more with comp accelerating on 2 & 3 year stacks, showing significant brand heat. Guide confidence also evident in gift card revenue +7%, yet inventory well-managed only +1%, helping Q2 operating cash flow +34%. $WSM $RH $ARHS $XRT

Unlike almost any other retailer, clarity of communications a highlight at $WSM. No obfuscation like $WMT, $HD & others about tariff refunds. Performance & outlook reported clearly excluding tariff refunds as the one-off they are. $HD $LOW $TGT $XRT

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Given Sonoma strong run, almost no print would be strong enough but another phenom 'compounding on compounding 'Q by $WSM. Comps on fire at all brands despite tariffs, housing. Lifts sales & margin guide above street despite higher tax drag. Alber just fantastic. $XRT $RH

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Oof. ☠️. That mirage-like Footlocker turnaround drags down another high flier after Mary Dillion as Dicks warns. But $DKS is cutting outlook for core brand too as Nike struggles drag on industry across-board driving higher promotions & lower margin. $NKE $ULTA $ADDYY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Ross comps another blockbuster 10%, led by traffic, with sales strengthening into July. Strength even at lower end despite $WMT trying to use 'stress' excuse. Suggests $TJX Marmaxx hiccup really was execution not something more sinister. $ROST $TGT $XLF $XLY

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$WMT ties soft June sales to elevated gas prices hurting lower income demos. Says July better & back to school going well. But can you ignore $AMZN Prime Day shift impact on non-food in June? Not sure $WMT comes out smelling of roses after this call. $TGT

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$WMT lifting sales guide, though positioning it as reaction to higher price investment funded by tariff refunds. But also points to higher fuel hit, so how much is it really investing? Plus saying consumer 'softer' since Feb is misleading - remember April Q was very strong.

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$WMT US web sales again impressive at +24%, best of Big 3 by some margin. Web penetration rising at steady pace of 300-400bp y/y. But more than offset by fall in store sales. Blames pharma deflation but had no issues overcoming that in Q1 - non-food as much of culprit. $TGT $AMZN

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Market reaction tells its own story but this isn't just about punchy $WMT multiple. Underwhelming comp even ex-pharmacy: deceleration on 1/2/3-year stacks. And third straight Q with down in-store sales, but decline accelerating -2.5% this Q, unlike $TGT, +2.7%. $AMZN $XLY

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At time of (general) retail plenty, DIY retailers given their link to housing turnover sound like they're on different planet. $LOW cuts sales/earnings outlook. Depot now includes tariff refunds in guide (& $HD was once gold standard with pristine financials & guide!) $XLY $XLF

$TGT still a big laggard on web sales, despite much smaller base. $AMZN with massive sales base up mid-teens & $WMT (6X size of Target online) likely to hit mid 20s. One offset (partly easy compare), $TGT running positive comp in-store vs $WMT in-store down for 2 straight Qs.

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Can't complain about Target Q. Healthy read on customer, especially around mid-range. 2/3/4-year stacked comp all improved vs prior Q, led by traffic. Margin recovery continues even if limited by still soft discretionary areas (home, apparel). $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

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Estee 13%margin target woeful vs L'Oreal Luxe at 22%+. Over-emphasis on China & much lower fragrance exposure led to multiple years of pain. Not all clear, but as margin-rich skincare picks up, brighter $EL outlook. All regions positive including US & Europe ex Middle East.