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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A lot of talk about the polls being wrong in Brazil's election Where?

Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The poll averages in Minnesota show the Democrat with a very small lead Yet, prediction markets give the Democrat a 90% chance to win How could a lead so small translate to such a large win probability?! My work on poll data explains why and how The Nate Silver et al framework literally cannot

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Can someone explain to be how this race wasn't rigged? Every single snapshot had the US losing. But they ended up winning easily. Either the race was rigged or the photographers really messed this up. This post is about poll data.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The direction of photographer error in recent years *2000: huge US bias (photo 1) *2004: US bias *2008: anti-US bias *2012: unbiased *2016: anti-US bias *2020: unbiased *2024: US bias This is precisely the same logic used by @natesilver538bot.bsky.social when he says "poll error"

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For those who have trouble wrapping your minds around what "poll error" means - and what it doesn't mean - a simple question: Who does this snapshot predict will win the race, and by how much? If the woman in red (2nd place) eventually wins, does that mean the snapshot was wrong? Why or why not?

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Democrats polling very well, with a bunch of disgruntled conservatives hiding out as undecided...and ignorant analysts assuming undecideds will split evenly. Where have we seen this before? What could go wrong?

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

If you ask people what they want, they lie. Not because they are being deceptive, but because they don't know. The flaw in poll data is not the data, but how we treat it.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It's okay if you don't understand this. Most of the field's experts don't. But I'll be very clear and honest: anyone who asserts the below isn't true, or that the field's perceived experts DO understand it, I will prove you wrong. And that's a promise

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Did you know that Christian P. Robert Professor of Statistics at CEREMADE, Université Paris-Dauphine (France) and the University of Warwick wrote a fraudulent review of my book? He literally didn't read it. His words prove it. Story below. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-polls-...

realcarlallen.substack.com

"The Polls Weren't Wrong" Reviews. The Good, The Okay, The Fraudulent.

Hello, Professor Christian Robert

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

When we say something is "wrong" it has a very specific meaning. The way commentators like Silver, Morris, et al And media talk about poll data They are operating under an objectively, empirically incorrect definition of what it means for a poll to be "wrong" An analogy below

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Imagine you're working, and you ask me: "What's the score of the football game?" And I say "Panthers are up by 7" Then when you're off work, you check the score: Bears won by 22. Would it be accurate to say I was "way off"? Or that my report "up by 7" badly "missed the result"? Why or why not?

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

On this day in 2024 My book became a best seller There's still a lot of work to be done, but I appreciate everyone who helped make it happen.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The fact that most people misunderstand polls is not their fault: people they trust as experts don't understand them either Step one: Stop making the seemingly innocent but ultimately indefensible assumption that undecideds will always split evenly "or else the poll was wrong"

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Still posting TDs this season. Still free to follow. Good start. hrtd.substack.com/p/tds-week-1

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Read about it, and maybe understand it..I still don't. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-viral-...

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

A very basic explanation as to why the "margin" or "lead" someone has in a poll is a very misleading statistic If I say someone is "up by 7" in a poll - that sounds strong If the "margin of error" is +/- 3%, you might (wrongly) believe that - if the poll is accurate - the person ahead will win...

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

"Um, Carl, you buried the lede.. You backtested Silver's models from when 538 was considered gold standard, figured out how he used last election's "poll miss" to fudge their tails based on the fact that you noticed they mistakenly showed Maine as -3 for Clinton instead of +3 in 2016...that's sick"

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

If anyone would like to discuss the scientific and/or statistical merits of Prediction Markets, I’m happy to do so.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

One year ago, the debt hit 37 trillion Today it hit 40 trillion Historic incompetence like we've never seen

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Highly recommended read for why any and all analysis citing how much someone is “up by” or how much polls were “off by” rely on a fundamental misunderstanding of how polls work 👇 realcarlallen.substack.com/p/poll-data-...

realcarlallen.substack.com

Poll Data Is Not Like Sports Data

The Margin of Error Is Not The Margin

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

If you or someone you know teaches a lesson on gerrymandering, I strongly recommend the article below. Most materials on the topic are plainly wrong regarding how gerrymandering works. It touches on probability, but accessible for all levels. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-new-be...

realcarlallen.substack.com

The (New) Best Gerrymandering Explanation You'll See

And Why it Matters

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Imagine I ask you what the score of the Lakers game is. And you say "Lakers are up by 10" That is not NEARLY enough information to form a narrow expectation of what the final score will be, if the Lakers are favored to win. Now apply that to how we analyze poll data, and you're top 0.01%

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Anyone who writes on the subject of "poll error" should probably give this a read. Preprint will be available soon.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

This poll said Brooks was up by 8. Then he won by 20. Therefore, the polls were way off. Name the flaw in this logic, and show me how you would explain to literal experts in the field (while avoiding being demeaning or condescending) why their analysis as above is wrong.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

A lot of "polls was wrong" commentary tonight. Because up by big number must yield win by that number or else wrong. I am very tired.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The more I think about it, the more "the apology must be as loud as the disrespect" should be an amendment to the Constitution

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Bernie Moreno should just go full MAGA in his Max Miller statement. "Perhaps if she wasn't my daughter, I'd be dating her"

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

"no fair, the Dodgers are too good" - Crybabies

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Trump funneled tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to his friends to repair the reflecting pool despite the fact that they were grossly unqualified to do the job, did a poor job And then admitted to spending millions more blaming people who did nothing to cover up the fact that he funneled money

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Democrats: we want the full, unredacted Epstein Files so we can hold these scum accountable Republicans: we want to use AI to make underage porn

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

This is absolutely remarkable Unlike most stats nerds, I do not proclaim there to be a "right" answer to questions like this. Finances cannot be accurately simplified into expected value calculations. However For any person that is not in legal or literal survival trouble, this is a bad decision

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

David Elliott Pritt, Republican from West Virginia, was arrested and charged with sexually explicit conversations with a minor The victim, 15, said they had several "physical sexual encounters" He allegedly groomed his victims on the game Roblox, before moving to Snapchat Waiting for the mugshot

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

I agree with Republicans that we should have to show ID for both unlimited pasta and unlimited votes.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

The speed with which people in high school went from begging to copy my homework and asking for advice because "Carl knows what he's talking about" To arguing with me over very basic science like vaccines and evolution Is remarkable Tell your smart kids to stop letting people copy their homework

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

If the war is over and we won, how did they just kill our troops?

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

No wonder these men are so lonely and hateful Their own family doesn't even love them

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Allow me to summarize the Senate hearings with Blanche today Senator: straightforward softball question Blanche:

static.klipy.com

Key & Peele: Jordan Peele Sweating Anxiously

ALT: Key & Peele: Jordan Peele Sweating Anxiously

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

That "tssssst" when you open a can of Pepsi is enthusiastic consent. Communication is key. And don't forget to work the tab, guys.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

We hold Pepsi to a higher standard than we hold the President.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

"I think if all votes were counted equally, [made up scenario]." - every Electoral College supporter

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Donald Trump has the chance to do the most patriotic thing ever tomorrow.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Austin Smith of Turning Point USA pleaded guilty to election fraud - charges he previously claimed were false and political hitjob He forged more than 100 signatures.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

This guy claimed vaccines aren't effective because more vaccinated people died than unvaccinated ones. Look how I break them

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

A good photographer will get you a good snapshot, such that you can see the state of the race Telling that photographer "Yeah but no one cares about who's ahead halfway through the race innit? Adjust your photo to tell me who's gonna win and by how much" - Exactly how pollsters are treated today

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Declaring which polls were more accurate by which one most closely predicted the final margin requires a fundamental ignorance of what data a poll gives us. No one who understands how polls work would do it. It's equivalent to judging the accuracy of a snapshot by the final race result.

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Consider two competing polls: Poll 1 Candidate A 46 Candidate B 44 Undecided 10 Poll 2 Candidate A 44 Candidate B 46 Undecided 10 Given the information below, which poll was more accurate?

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Carl Allen @realcarlallen.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Hey everyone I finally figured out what's happening in this video It's called massage a knee. Commonly practiced by far right weirdos like JD.

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