ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 8mThe autistic sense of fairness has no magical connection to actual fairness. And that intense sense of outrage at anything YOU feel is unfair is a recipe for self reinforcing delusion. Which is to say, not only are we not immune to propaganda, we can be shockingly vulnerable to it. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 10/10/2026It's just the cult of savvy with a leftwing academic veneer. 040
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 09/10/2026We're in the final month. The campaign season feels eternal when you're a political junkie, but honestly it only really kicks into gear like 3 months out. I would love for people to learn that for the future, but the amount of "they're finally listening to us!" does not make me optimistic. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The public are not happy with Republicans now, and even if they're not disgusted by this they don't care, and so it becomes another example of Republicans being out of touch. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Consistent belief in left policy is basically the biggest predictor of voting Democrat. So you're objectively right in an important sense. I do think those loud online wreckers are far more likely to identify themselves as "the left" though, and usage of the term ends up reflecting that. 100
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Horseshoe theory is real because fringe politics are driven by resentment more than policy, and resentment is going to take you to a lot of the same places regardless of nominal ideology. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Midterms are shockingly favorable to the out party. For perspective, 2008 was the middle of a complete economic collapse with Barack Obama leading the ticket, and Dems only modestly improved their vote share from the previous midterm. Wouldn't put it past Trump to match that, but it's not the norm. 100
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Yeah, bad people are bad in specific ways. It's not validating them to recognize that, it's actually pretty important for understanding the world. 071
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 04/10/2026The vote totals are so jarring to me. Like I don't think they're that low because this is some kind of vetted leadership system, it's just whatever cranks bother to show up? Genuinely not an expert on UK parties, keep thinking surely that's wrong, but that's my understanding. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 04/10/2026I hate that the child tax credit was so unpopular, but it was, and there's a reason for that. Giving people money is not actually some magic cheat code. Politicians would have been doing this every election if it were. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 04/10/2026For what it's worth I don't see a reason to favor Brown over Talarico. Ohio has already voted redder than Texas in some recent years, it really wouldn't be an outlier, and most people expect a larger than normal swing with Hispanics. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I keep harping on this, but we were only 2.5 points back in Texas during Trump's first midterm. Republicans are praying to only do moderately worse than Trump's first midterm, but moderately worse than Trump 1 loses them texas. 020
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The even more leftwing friends of a Liberal Currents writer probably shouldn't be super happy with the nominee. That's not snark. It's normal for the leftmost 10% to view a mainstream candidate as the lesser evil. It's not a crisis we need to solve. 0192
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I mean, I think what they're doing is managing the emotions of an unstable child. The entire Trump court revolves around that, to the point it's probably a category error to call this failed campaign propaganda. 040
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 27/09/2026That's true, but I don't think it's really relevant here. I think the sort of people who obsess over Star Wars mostly watched and enjoyed SC. But something like Mandalorian was a hit because the general public embraced it, and they have made clear they're just not gonna watch that many random shows. 001
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Angela Lansbury played roles where her beauty was a plot point. It's not like they were pretending she was ugly. But the aura around stars is that they're somehow unique, they're special, and she didn't really have that look. It's perceived status and exclusivity more than beauty. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Right, we know it's directionally accurate, but that doesn't cut it. It will be a very good night. It could plausibly be a historic night. But the margin between those things is fairly small, and there's really good reason to doubt polling knows how to calibrate the margin of these demo swings. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 25/09/2026DSA can function as a social club because they have barely six figure membership and compete only in the few races dominated by high SES liberal college grads. The Democrats need to win half the electorate. They can't function as a social club because they aren't catering to a single small clique. 6212
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Remember that our media class thought this was a hard-nosed realist look at politics, and weep. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Right, Platner had two main factions. One that loved him being a piece of shit, because their only goal was throwing a tantrum against the establishment. And one that didn't care he was a piece of shit, because their only goal was advancing their clique. 020
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026We only need to do two and a half points better than our recent best result. In this environment, against that candidate, two and a half points is not some wild fantasy. Ignore polling completely, and you should still favor Talerico. 030
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The Supreme Court is shutting down third term stuff regardless. The birthright dissents were disgraceful, but the result still shows there's absolutely not five votes for a third term. Also Trump feels entitled to a third term, but he feels entitled to a lot of stuff he doesn't pursue. 011
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026"Expensive beef can be substituted with pork, and Americans can drive a little less to save money" - I agree completely with those reasonable Republican talking points... good luck selling them to voters bitches!!! Maybe next you can suggest they wear a sweater! Oh, and check their tire pressure. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Endorsing a standard that makes it effectively impossible for rapists to face consequences is no different than endorsing a man's right to commit rape. And I honestly think he does endorse that, at least if they're the right kind of man. And none of his friends will disown him. 080
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I wouldn't trust the polls either, and if they overstate the swing that's going to lead to a lot of disappointment. Honestly though, every well founded prior says they should be swinging hard in this environment. I can think of reasons why that wouldn't be true, but they're far more speculative. 031
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026You would expect loosely aligned voters to swing hard in this environment (only strongly aligned Republicans are ignoring car juice high!). And even without liberal delusions about Hispanics being automatically aligned with us, you would expect people facing random stops to be extra annoyed. 151
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Organizing around topics is absolutely less toxic than parasocial systems. But Reddit is, as you suggest, still not especially good. And I think there are structural reasons why Reddit can't be good. And I think by the time you fix that, you've reinvented forums, which then lose the attention fight. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026His awkwardness makes him code as prey. That's all it is. Just bullies attacking someone their vile little brains code as weak, then getting enraged when he doesn't submit. 090
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Trump is a lazy coward whose overriding need is to claim success. He'll use the 22nd amendment to claim permanent victory - he was the greatest president ever, all the polls are fake and he would have won easily. Then he'll treat the R nominee's loss as proof that only Trump was strong enough. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 20/09/2026People are listing specific reasons, I think they're mostly valid. But honestly, as the out party in a midterm, almost nothing is going to improve on the turnout differential you get from a completely tuned out electorate. 000
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Most people can not think in percentages (it's one of the most well documented findings in psychology), and most people do not think in terms of policy detail, and so answers given in those terms can't be taken too literally. 031
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026You're on the social media site for Xellenial TV nerds. Everyone guesses Sports Night here. I was genuinely trying to figure out what show you could mean other than Sports Night. 151
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026We need to be honest that the main draw of EA for most EAs was the fun of "solving" the world with a bunch of other autistics. But a formula saying bed nets over and over gets boring, so they were always going to move on, and the framework of "solving" the world was always going to make that toxic. 2200
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026I'm not letting myself get invested in generational wipeout fantasies. The Senate seat though... doing a few points better than our previous best, in this cycle, against that candidate? That doesn't feel like a huge reach. It's going to be a disappointing lesson if partisanship is THAT determinative 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026I'm gonna go ahead and be way too earnest for this thread - I don't actually think it's surprising the severely autistic girl cries a lot. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Eh I think this is more like cases where some poll will show a wild outlier from everyone else because everyone else is herding while the outlier sticks with their (probably wrong!) model. I really really think some weird output was to be expected in that circumstance. 100
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026I really don't care for GEM, but I'm not sure how you avoid that. There are good reasons to include historical fundamentals in your model (they're traditionally more predictive than polling until you get fairly close), and there's not much you can do if something wildly ahistoric throws that. 100
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Years ago Jacobin put out an article about how rich people no longer have distinctive fashion from regular people, and the lack of self awareness was staggering. "The upper class look just like me and all my friends" - sooooo close to getting it. 0221
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026It's also not clear it works. Like Donald Trump is meant to be the ultimate proof, but he gets less popular the more attention he gets. His base clearly loved his trolling, but outside the primary his great electoral accomplishment was barely beating Hilary Clinton in an election Rs were favored in. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Which brings up another issue - you're absolutely right about people inventing "Donald the dove" as a weapon for their pathetic grievances. But "I will invade Iran without planning and automatically win because I'm the strongest" is so deranged as to be self-censoring. 020
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026He also (literally) turned to the camera and said we should have done Iraq with less planning And he said for decades we should go to war with Iran, and during the campaign listed them as one of the enemies he would force to oney him Meaning a poorly planned war with Iran was a campaign promise 140
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Look at the multi plane systems they used for something like Bambi. Expensive to build, adding extra labor to every shot, all to get just the right effect they wanted. The whole period was an incredible artistic achievement, but no way it was sustainable with or without Walt. 030
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Again though, just objectively not how politics works. You can't really change where the most votes are, so withholding your votes doesn't make them chase you. Meanwhile for both structural AND personal reasons, Dem politicians like to do Dem stuff. When the party has more power it drifts left. 020
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Obviously there's the faux cynicism of imagining politicians never do good stuff out of real belief. But there's also the illusion of control that is really appealing (and that conveniently lets overwhelmed people rationalize their crashouts). 130
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Unlike a lot of stuff it's not an obviously insane theory. I can understand someone imagining that's how it works. It's just objectively, demonstrably not how it works. And a certain kind of person will never believe the world works differently than they imagine. 1170
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Honestly, I feel like it must come off impossibly tedious. But it has the virtue of being what I actually believe, and frankly tedious represents me pretty well :p, so I stick with it. Really sweet of you to say though :). Can always use more sweet in the world. 110
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 11/09/2026I mean the actual answer is that everyone values integrity and principles. They just believe that the people with integrity are the people they agree with. So you can't show principle and integrity by loudly standing for something they disagree with. That just makes you loudly corrupt. 010
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 11/09/2026For decades we've had one party that wants to give people stuff and one that really doesn't, and those two parties have been fairly equally matched. 011
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 11/09/2026I don't think it was conscious on their part either, that's the really striking thing. Biden was simply not part of the debate their social circle was having, and they were absolutely convinced their debate was real. 030
ranthacc.bsky.social @ranthacc.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Fetterman is an asshole who responds to criticism by doubling down. He got along great with progressives when they were cheering him on, but once they started criticizing him it was always going to spiral. 010