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Ralph Scott

@ralphscott.bsky.social
2.4K followers 1.8K following 864 posts

Leverhulme Early Career Fellow in politics at the University of Bristol. Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things. ralphscott.co.uk

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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'll be presenting at 11.30am tomorrow morning - though fortunately only once as Alex will take on the duties for our joint paper
P21 Education,GenerationsandPoliticalCleavages Friday 18 September•11:30-13:00•Flex2 Chair: RalphScott “TheProfessorsaretheEnemy”? EvidenceforMobilisationoftheEducational Cleavageamong Political Elites Presentingauthor: Ralph Scott — University of Bristol All Authors: Ralph Scott — University of Bristol; Alexander Hartland — Saarland University Fitting In or ChangingMinds? TheDynamicEffectsofFull-TimeStudyonPolitical Values Presentingauthor: Ralph Scott — University of Bristol All Authors: Ralph Scott — University of Bristol; Jonathan Mellon — British Election Study; Geoffrey Evans — University of Oxford Universities as a site of preference formation: peer networks and political cleavages Presentingauthor: Fabienne Eisenring — University of Zurich Generational Identity, Hostility, and Political Behaviour: Evidence from the UK,France,USA,andCanadainthe2024–2025Elections Presentingauthor: LauraSerra — LondonSchoolofEconomicsandPolitical Science AllAuthors: LauraSerra—LondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience; Michael Bruter — London School of Economics and Political Science; Sandra Obradovic — London School of Economics and Political Science; Sarah Harrison — London School of Economics and Political Science
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Turns out "Ralph Scott" is quite prolific and has written various of these seemingly AI-generated tomes, including: "One Tiny Clue: Crimes Solved by the Smallest Pieces of Evidence" and "The Greatest Prison Escapes: Daring Breakouts, Ingenious Plans, and the Most Audacious Escapes in History"
Amazon screengrab of the various titles authored by "Ralph Scott"
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Except I have not written such a book. I look it up on Amazon and find a what appears to be a clearly AI generated cover for a book with this title, with my name on it
The secret lives of animals AI-generated cover
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I received what I now understand to be a classic AI book discussion scam email.
My name is Tina, and I coordinate the Amsterdam Creative Writers Club, an international community of around 2,100 writers in Amsterdam. We bring together people interested in fiction, poetry, creative practice, and the many ways writing helps us make sense of the world.

One of our members recently recommended The Secret Lives of Animals: Fascinating Behaviours from the Natural World for one of our upcoming discussions. We were particularly interested in the way the book brings together such a wide range of behaviours, from problem-solving crows and tool-using chimpanzees to grieving elephants and communicating dolphins, to explore how intelligence, emotion, cooperation, and social connection appear across the natural world.

The breadth of the 30 chapters also gives readers an engaging way to reconsider familiar assumptions about animal behaviour. We were especially drawn to the attention given to communication, animal personalities, social bonds, migration, and adaptation, and to the idea that these behaviours are not isolated curiosities but part of larger systems that help animals survive, connect, and thrive. The combination of scientific insight and an accessible style seems well suited to encouraging readers to look more closely at the complexity of animal lives.

I'd love to ask whether you would be interested in having The Secret Lives of Animals featured in one of our upcoming discussions. If your schedule allows, we'd also be delighted to invite you to join us for a short informal online conversation with our members about the behaviours explored in the book, what they reveal about animal intelligence and social lives, and how our understanding of the natural world changes when we pay closer attention to these hidden systems.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
www.speech.almeida.co.uk/neil-kinnock
That kind of freedom for the individual, that kind of liberty can't be secured by most of the people for most of the time if they're just left to themselves, isolated, stranded, with their whole life chances dependent upon luck!

Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Why is my wife, Glenys, the first woman in her family in a thousand generations to be able to get to university?

Was it because all our predecessors were 'thick'? Did they lack talent - those people who could sing, and play, and recite and write poetry; those people who could make wonderful, beautiful things with their hands; those people who could dream dreams, see visions; those people who had such a sense of perception as to know in times so brutal, so oppressive, that they could win their way out of that by coming together?

Were those people not university material? Couldn't they have knocked off all their A-levels in an afternoon?

But why didn't they get it?

Was it because they were weak? Those people who could work eight hours underground and then come up and play football?

Weak? Those women who could survive eleven child bearings, were they weak? Those people who could stand with their backs and their legs straight and face the people who had control over their lives, the ones who owned their workplaces and tried to own them, and tell them, 'No. I won't take your orders.' Were they weak?

Does anybody really think that they didn't get what we had because they didn't have the talent, or the strength, or the endurance, or the commitment?

Of course not. It was because there was no platform upon which they could stand; no arrangement for their neighbours to subscribe to their welfare; no method by which the communities could translate their desires for those individuals into provision for those individuals.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Unmasked: Secret BBC filming exposes hidden culture of misogyny and racism inside Met Police
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
C'mon jobs.ac.uk , I know things are bad but this is ridiculous
Screen grab of an email from jobs.ac.uk saying there have been no new jobs in Politics in the last 3 months
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
My thesis? It's available here (at some point I will turn this last bit into a paper): pure.manchester.ac.uk/ws/portalfil... But here are the key extracts to avoid needing to wade through
In their book Who Wants What?, Rueda and Stegmuller (2019, chap. 3) investigate the influence of expected lifetime earnings (estimated based on an individual’s level of education and working experience) on redistribution preferences in depth. Firstly, through analysis of European Social Survey data (and accounting for country-level variation), they find a strong relationship between expected lifetime income and opposition to redistribution – stronger even than that of current income. They then
examine the causal relationship in Britain specifically, using British Household Panel Survey data to estimate the effect of an individual-level change in income and expected lifetime income (due to changes in educational status and work experience), producing similar results to their comparative work. Building on this work, analysis exploring the effects of life-time income mobility by Helgason and Rehm (2022) suggest that this change is experienced as a dynamic learning process,
whereby those experiencing income mobility steadily change their preferences with reference to their new circumstances, whereas those with stable income profiles at either end of the income spectrum become more entrenched in their support or opposition to redistribution.When combined with the wider decompositional evidence that at least part of the effect of education on attitudes toward redistribution is attributable to increased earnings (Marshall, 2016; Bullock, 2021), this suggests that this anticipatory effect may take hold even before the graduate premium is actually present in their takehome pay, and that this will steadily develop over time. In addition, it also suggests that the direction, timing and magnitude of the allocation effect of higher education on economic values is likely to be sensitive to the economic and social context at the time. For example, students in previous generations, where the graduate premium was more pronounced (Boero et al., 2021) and grants were available might feel more positive about their economic outlook and therefore be more economically rightwing, compared with more recent graduates, who face a more uncertain premium and an increasingly onerous tuition fees and student loan regime, who might be expected to lean left on economic issues.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Plenty more in the article for those with access, but here are the first few paras:
Amid university financial crisis, ageing discipline could face “lost generation” of academics, report warns

The number of jobs being advertised in politics departments at universities has fallen to a record low, painting a “troubling picture” for the discipline amid the higher education financial crisis, a report has warned.

The report for the Political Studies Association, shared exclusively with Research Professional News ahead of its publication on 31 March, analyses trends in politics departments between 2012 and 2025. Written by politics academics Ralph Scott, Lawrence McKay and William Allen, it says the field has developed acute problems with jobs and student numbers.

“While we knew the current situation was bad, the most surprising thing is just how bad,” Scott, a Leverhulme early career fellow in politics at the University of Bristol, told RPN. The 2025 calendar year saw the lowest number of advertised jobs in politics on record—just 469—while the mean figure between 2012 and 2024 was almost double that, at 836 a year.

The pandemic hit politics departments hard and recovery since that period has been weak, the report notes. Academic staff numbers and advertising rates fell in 2020-21 and have never recovered to their pre-Covid trends, it says, based on an analysis of Higher Education Statistics Agency and job advert data.

“While politics generally fared better than some other humanities and social sciences subjects leading up to the pandemic, student numbers have been declining since, which contributes to the troubling picture,” said Scott.

The report also says universities are spending less per academic member of staff in politics departments than before, when adjusted for inflation. Real-terms pay is now roughly £2,700 (or 7 per cent) lower than in 2019-20, it finds.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Staff spending in politics departments has fallen in real terms since 2019-20, particularly in teaching-intensive departments where it is 32% below 2019-20 levels. Pay has also declined by about £2,700 for the median academic in real terms.
This figure shows the inflation-adjusted  (real terms) change in staff spending at the median HEP, compared with the prior financial year. Our analysis confirms a sea-change in the resourcing of Politics departments. In the 2010s, staff spending increased at 5% or more per year, but fell markedly over the pandemic, and has been almost flat in real terms since. This will by definition be reflected in either pay or headcounts – or most likely a mixture of the two.

It also shows a clear association between institution type and trends in staff spending in Politics. In research-intensive institutions, total (not median) staff spending held steady in real-terms during the pandemic, and has continued expanding since, although at a far slower rate than in the 2010s. By contrast, at teaching-intensive universities, total staff spending fell in real-terms by 10% in 2020-21 and 8% in 2020-22, and has continued to fall although more slowly: real-terms staff spending in Politics at these institutions is thus a massive 32% below 2019-20 levels. We noted previously that falls in staff-spend will be reflected in pay, headcounts, or a mixture of the two. We cannot directly measure pay through the HESA data, although we can approximate it. HESA’s pay data groups staff into broad salary bands corresponding with the national pay spines: accordingly, the salary bands change from one year to the next, so pay cannot easily be compared over time. To approximate changes in pay, we can instead leverage staff spending data, and calculate total staff spend per FTE employee, which represents salary, NI and employer pension contributions for the average employee. This closely tracks pay, but could also oversell a decline, since the USS employer contribution decreased from January 2024 (overlapping with the 2023-4 financial year). As such, we implement a year-specific deduction for pension spending (using university-wide spending not available at the cost centre level) and deduct the NICs contribution for this average employee.  

This figure shows the results, again in real terms (inflation adjusted). On both metrics, pay has markedly declined compared to 2019-20. Real-terms staff spend per head is roughly £4,000 (or 7%) lower, although stabilised somewhat after a large decline in 2021-2. Accounting for pensions and NICs also suggests a substantial drop (roughly £2,700, or 7%), despite a modest recovery in 2023-4. Put differently, the average academic employee would have fallen between two and three points on the 2015-16 pay spine, from point 36 down to 33-34, reflecting a fall in real-terms average pay from nearly £37,700 in 2019-20 to roughly £35,000 today.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The staff in these roles tend to be on mixed (research and teaching) contracts overall, though the share of teaching-only contracts has increased.
We find that teaching-only contracts have more than doubled between 2014-15 and 2024-5 from 7.3% to 14.8%. However, unlike some of our other results, this is a continuation of pre-pandemic trends, rather than a new development: research-only jobs represent a similar share to 10 years ago, while mixed teaching/research jobs, though declining as a share, still represent the largest group by far (at nearly three-quarters).A comparison within job types is also informative for understanding the type of jobs that are being created. The pandemic’s impacts are immediately visible, with teaching-only and research-only jobs particularly hard-hit in 2020-21 (contributing to this, these jobs are more likely to be fixed-term than mixed jobs). Teaching-only jobs showed most resilience post-pandemic, achieving 10-15% annual growth between 2021-22 and 2023-24, but even here it is notable that growth does not come close to matching pre-pandemic highs (such as 33% growth between 2017 and 2018). Furthermore, for the first time since the pandemic, teaching-only jobs fell in 2024-25. Research-only jobs are more volatile, even pre-pandemic, but post-pandemic show the most sustained weakness: contracting (albeit only slightly) three years in a row, but returning to growth in 2024-25. Mixed jobs barely take a hit from the pandemic, and continue to grow modestly in subsequent years. Despite the fall in 2024-25, the comparative performance of teaching-only jobs is particularly stark if shown cumulatively, taking 2014-15 as a baseline – with nearly 200% growth on 2014, as against just 30% in the mixed and 63% in the research-only category.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Staff data from the Higher Education Statistics Authority echoes how Politics is a stark example of changing fortunes: from fast-growing pre-COVID to weak recovery and stagnation since.
This figure uses HESA data to plot year-on-year changes in FTE Politics staff versus a range of comparable disciplines. Sociology almost matched Politics and maintained growth right up to 2022-23, but shed over 120 FTE jobs in 2024-25 – the biggest fall of any social science. Anthropology has struggled most over the long-term, with only 9% staff growth over an entire decade, and job losses in 2024-25 adding to its woes. Law has performed best over the long-term, but its growth has come to a halt in 2024-25. Among the humanities, the standout story is the continued slump of modern languages, the only humanities or social science discipline to be smaller than a decade prior. Most humanities subjects achieved some growth in the late 2010s, but have been stagnant or in slight decline since (History, Theology, English, Classics). Philosophy, meanwhile, continues its steady growth. Area Studies is a puzzling case, with growth equalling Politics in the 2010s but a sharp fall over Covid-19, followed by recovery to 2019-20 staff numbers. 

Politics, then, is far from a unique case, and remains in better health than some other disciplines. However, Politics is perhaps the starkest example of changing fortunes: from the fastest growing of all humanities and social sciences to a relatively damaging Covid impact, weak recovery and finally stagnation in 2024-25.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Web-scraped archive data suggests that, while hiring dynamics in politics since 2015 broadly match other fields, politics has been particularly adversely affected.
This figure uses Internet Archive data to compare trends in advertising in Politics and Government with a set of other comparable subjects. To account for differences in the overall size of the disciplines, the y axis represents an index conditional on the first observation, so a value higher than 1 indicates more jobs being advertised than at the beginning of 2015 and a value lower than 1 indicates fewer jobs. This suggests that while all subjects are experiencing extreme slowdowns in hiring (at around half the rate at the beginning of 2015), Politics has been particularly adversely affected since 2020.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
While all types of academic politics jobs have become scarcer since the Covid-19 pandemic, lectureships and postdocs have particularly dropped off.
A figure showing the trends in job adverts broken down by job type. Post-doctoral positions, teaching roles and lectureships all saw increases until 2019, with declines since – and these patterns are particularly stark for postdocs. Advertised PhD positions have seen more dramatic declines between prior to Covid and now, roughly halving in that time.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
2025 was the worst on record in terms of new advertised jobs. Using jobs.ac.uk email alert data courtesy of @peterallen.bsky.social, we found 469 jobs compared to a mean of 836 between 2012-24.
This figure shows weekly advertised jobs in politics in UK HEPs from 2012-2025. It reveals a clear decline in advertising from 2024 onwards: the average weekly number of advertised jobs is currently around half what it was in 2021. Note that in this figure a point represents an observation of a captured url and the trend line is estimated using a generalised additive model.This figure presents the same data but allows for easier comparison across years by presenting the cumulative jobs advertised for each calendar year in our sample. This indicates again that both 2024 and 2025 have seen significantly fewer Politics and Government jobs advertised, with 2025 being the worst year on record with only 469 jobs advertised, compared to a mean of 836 jobs advertised a year between 2012 and 2024.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
We're launching this report at PSA conference next Tuesday! Come along if you're in Oxford and want to hear more/vent about just how bad the current academic job market in politics is
12:30pm Oral
Early Career Network – Launch and Discussion of Politics Academic
Job Market Report
Venue - Examination Schools - East School
Organised by: Angeliki Martinou (Panel Chair), Dr. Ralph Scott
(Discussant), Dr. Lawrence McKay (Discussant), and Dr. William Allen
(Discussant)
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Interesting analysis from the Guardian today - but is this degree of overall positive sentiment towards immigration in UK Parliamentary rhetoric believable?
Screen grab of Guardian analysis showing MPs have almost never been overall negative about immigration in Parliamentary speeches:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2026/feb/25/how-rightwing-rhetoric-has-risen-sharply-in-the-uk-parliament-an-exclusive-visual-analysis
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
(And here's a photo of it in the actual paper in case of paywall issues)
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Seems pretty clear that the crisis is hitting ECRs worse too - increase in number of profs and other senior staff but declines in other levels:
The number of academics working in UK institutions has fallen for the first time on record, new figures reveal.

In a further sign of the impact of the financial crisis gripping the sector, new data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa) show that 244,755 academic staff were working in the UK in 2024-25.

This was down from a peak of 246,930 the year before and the first time in the 10-year Hesa record that the total number has fallen. The figures exclude “atypical” roles including academics on short-term or one-off contracts.

The number of professors increased slightly to 26,110, as did the number of other senior academics (6,590) – but there were 2,600 fewer people employed at other contract levels (212,055).
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Only a quintupling of current rates, how hard can it be?
Graph from an ONS Census bulletin showing that 10.2% of those in employment in England worked in skilled trades 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/industryandoccupationenglandandwales/census2021#:~:text=0%25%205%25%2010%25%2
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Wicker man reaction meme:

"Oh God! Oh Jesus Christ!"
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Support for unilateral disarmament actually below current VI for Greens at 13% fwiw
YouGov tracker asking "What should happen to Trident at the end of its useful life?" 47% currently support a like-for-like replacement, 24% don't know, 17% a weaker deterrent and only 13% unilateral disarmament
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Aurora borealis?
Shot of the amazing aurora visible from my back garden yesterday
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
Tbf pretty sure this classic inspired the comms approach to partygate
Have you seen my hat ?
No . Why are you asking me .
I haven't seen it .
I haven't seen any hats anywhere .
I would not steal a hat .
Don't ask me any more questions .
OK . Thank you anyway
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
That's the kids' bedtime reading sorted
A freshly delivered copy of the British General Election of 2024
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
This sounds like an excellent innovation - coding occupations using LLMs during the interview itself: osf.io/preprints/so...
Paper abstract, which reads:

We present the results of a new approach to measuring the occupations of re-spondents in surveys using Large Language Models (LLMs).  Occupation is a no-toriously difficult variable to measure accurately due to the very large number ofoccupations and the technical ways they are described in standard classifications.These features of occupational classification systems mean that the measurementand classification stages are usually not conducted simultaneously, with coding ofopen responses about job title and tasks implemented in a subsequent stage of ’officecoding’.  In our new approach,  which we call SOCbot,  an LLM integrated in thequestionnaire scripting software is used to code the job title response to the occu-pational classification in real-time during the interview.  Where the job title doesnot contain sufficient information to be coded with confidence, the LLM probes forfurther relevant details on job tasks,  industry,  qualifications,  and so on.  SOCbotcan also be used in static mode offline on already collected response data.  Our res-ults demonstrate that the approach attains rates of coder reliability comparable totrained human coders.  We also demonstrate that the approach is feasible in large-scale survey operations and has significant potential to reduce respondent burden,lower costs, and yield more timely and accurate data
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Mark from Peep show naan meme but it's Warringtons instead of naan
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
IBM bringing the realness:

A COMPUTER
CAN NEVER BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE

THEREFORE A COMPUTER MUST NEVER
MAKE A MANAGEMENT DECISION
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Notable that the government is pursuing the most unpopular options in terms of addressing the funding crisis in HE (and it also won't be enough): www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/1wuozg...
From the report:

Reducing the number of courses is a popular approach, selected by 28 per cent of Britons - and remains popular across graduates and non-graduates alike. It is clear from focus group conversations that the public don’t want to see a bonfire of nonvocational courses: even niche or unconventional degrees are seen as important, so long as they can provide tangible value to students. However, there is clearly a public appetite for universities to specialise their offer to students, rather than providing such a broad range of courses.

Meanwhile, taking in more international students is among the more popular suggestions to increase income: Britons would choose this over redundancies, increased domestic fees or research cuts. However, it is less popular among Reform UK supporters, selected by only 16 per cent compared to 21 per cent among the wider public. As described above, support for international students is contingent on the view that they are remaining and working in the UK after their studies. If the university sector aims to raise income by taking in more international students, this needs to be communicated with a focus on these students’ academic merits and economic contribution, rather than their higher fees.

Strikingly only 2 per cent identified cuts to research programmes as the best way for universities to make ends meet, reflecting the broader findings on the positivity with which research is viewed. At the same time there was a lack of awareness exposed by focus groups of how research is funded. Indicating that a wider public debate about how university research is funded, including the role of international students in that could be worthwhile.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
I think YouGov does some stuff for the lols based on what is current trending - for example their polling on what animals people think they could beat in a fight
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The figure showing differences by factors during and following the PhD is also interesting - I would have expected a negative wage premium to have a more significant effect for example
Another figure from the paper.

"Certain patterns stand out: the largest increases in medication are observed among students enrolled at institutions with a relatively low share of professors to PhD students (39.3% increase for those with ≤ 0.17 professors per PhD student), as well as those with a lower share of female professors and PhD students (38.7% increase for those with ≤10% female professors, 43.3% for those with ≤38% female PhD students). We also find a positive association between psychiatric medication use and enrollment at institutions with longer average time to graduation."

"Perhaps surprisingly, we find no strong indication that variation in post-graduation outcomes across academic fields—such as the likelihood of unemployment, the probability of remaining in academia, average wages, or the research field-specific wage premium of obtaining a PhD—are associated with the magnitude of the increase in psychiatric medication during PhD studies."
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
In particular the heterogeneity graphs are very interesting - this one on background characteristics suggests that being male, younger, foreign-born and moving for the PhD all increase the risk of needing psychiatric medication
A figure showing how the outcome varies by background characteristics.

"The overall pattern suggests that the effect is widespread: nearly all subgroups—regardless of individual characteristics—experience an increase in psychiatric medication use. However, the magnitude varies somewhat. The relative increase is significantly larger for men than for women (28% vs. 16%, p = 0.011). We also find larger relative increases among foreign-born PhD students compared to those born in Sweden (36% vs. 17%, p = 0.011), among students who begin their PhD studies at a younger age (34% for those younger than 29 years vs. 14% for those 29 years or older, p < 0.001), and among those who relocate to a different region at the start of their PhD studies (39% vs. 20%, p = 0.045). Surprisingly, we find a larger increase in psychiatric medication use among students with PhD employment, compared to those funded through scholarships (27% vs. 16%, p = 0.095), company employment (27% vs. 0%, p = 0.007), or other sources28 (27% vs. 8%, p = 0.006). By contrast, we find no substantial variation in effect sizes by parental education (whether at least one parent holds a PhD), parental history of psychiatric medication use (whether at least one parent used psychiatric medication the year before PhD start)29, or family status at PhD entry (being married or having young children).30
The last part of Fig. 5 examines heterogeneity by cognitive and non-cognitive ability, using scores from Swedish military enlistment records.31 We find some evidence that students with higher leadership ability experience smaller relative increases in psychiatric medication following PhD start (13% for those with the highest leadership ability vs. 39% for those with the lowest, p = 0.031). Stress tolerance and IQ appear to have a weaker association with the increase in psychiatric medication. Directionally, the effect of PhD start is smaller for students with higher stress tolerance and lower IQ."
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Wonderful piece by @questingvole.bsky.social - in defense of the joy of university. The collective enterprise of shared knowledge is exactly why I think academia (for all its troubles) is so valuable. www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-...
Undergraduate education, furthermore, is no more than the lovely fizzy head on top of the deep and nourishing pint glass of the accumulated knowledge of generations. That knowledge is stored in universities as it is stored nowhere else, and it continues to be produced there, patiently and as far as the wide world goes almost anonymously, by generations of scholars in communion with each-other. This is a process that has been going on ever since the whole idea of the university arrived in this country, via the Arab world, from its clever Indian inventors.

We should support universities. We should cherish the value of what they do and recognise that if we run them down for sport we will not realise what we’ve lost until it’s gone. And, just once in a while, we should give students a break.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Oh to be working during the Islamic golden age en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic...
The Islamic Empire heavily patronized scholars. The money spent on the Translation Movement for some translations is estimated to be equivalent to about twice the annual research budget of the United Kingdom's Medical Research Council.[18] The best scholars and notable translators, such as Hunayn ibn Ishaq, had salaries that are estimated to be the equivalent of professional athletes today.[18] The House of Wisdom was a library established in Abbasid-era Baghdad, Iraq by Caliph al-Mansur[19] in 825 modeled after the academy of Jundishapur.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
I'm familiar with some evidence on voters, eg this very interesting paper that analysed nostalgia in Britain over time using @britishelectionstudy.com data: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (older people and those with lower levels of education were more likely to be nostalgic)
This paper uses the British Election Surveys from 1979 to 2019, together with the 2016–2019 CSI Brexit online panel, to explore how nostalgia has changed over time. Our interpretation of the data is that there was a shift in the content of nostalgia from regret about the decline of traditional ways of life and family values toward regret over the rise of inequality and the emergence of social media. At the same time, we find continuity in the kinds of people who are likely to feel nostalgic: they tend to be members of older generations and to be less well educated (which we take as a proxy for being “left behind” culturally and economically). However, we also find that, on the items for which we have comparable time series—on immigration, same-sex relations, ethnic equality, and gender equality—both age and educational level have reducing explanatory power over time. In contrast, for these items, there is a trend toward greater politicization and an increased influence of an English national identity. Political divisions show increasing explanatory power as sociodemographic divisions decline.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Here's the bit I had in mind:
The political activation of ethnocentrism: Enoch Powell and “River of Blood”

The dam finally broke when, for the first time, a prominent member of the Conservative Party elite – Shadow Cabinet member Enoch Powell – broke the taboo and articulated in full the identity-based hostility to migration widely shared in the electorate in the infamous “River of Blood” speech in April 1968, in which he used an emotive rhetoric to attack liberal Commonwealth immigration policies:

“Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependants, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant-descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre.”

Powell was fully aware that such an open and visceral violation of anti-racism social norms would provoke a strong reaction from his colleagues: “I can already hear the chorus of execration...how dare he say such a thing? How dare I stir up trouble and inflame feelings...?” However, he defended his stance by arguing that the growing opposition of white ethnocentric voters to migration as both legitimate and too important to ignore: “The answer is that I do not have the right not to do so....I simply do not have the right to shrug my shoulders and think about something else. What [my constituent] is saying, thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking...”The chorus of execration Powell anticipated was indeed swift to arrive. Conservative leader Edward Heath repudiated Powell’s position, sacked him from the Shadow Cabinet, and never spoke to him again. This move was overwhelmingly supported by his senior Shadow Cabinet colleagues – four of whom threatened to resign themselves unless Powell was dismissed. Heath cited the “racialist tone” of Powell’s speech as the reason for his sacking which he called “unacceptable from one of the leaders of the Conservative Party” and “liable to exacerbate racial tensions”. The Times, paper of record for the British ruling class, denounced Powell’s speech as “evil”, calling it “the first time that a serious British politician has appealed to racial hatred in this direct way in our post-war history”.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Exemplary skewering of how little internal logic there seems to be on the Trumpian extreme right (plenty more in this eye-opening piece).
He begins telling me about how America’s biggest problem is “decades of mass immigration”. I point out that the US is, you know, a nation of immigrants, to which he responds: “It was originally founded by people of north-west European ancestry.” I note there were people there before them. “There were native Americans, and they lost out,” he replies. “Sucks for them.” This is an odd comment from the spokesperson of a party claiming one of its key beliefs to be that “indigenous people have an inseparable bond with their homeland and are its natural stewards” to make.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I've been working on something on this and here's a sneak peek of recent trends in Politics job adverts on jobs.ac.uk Here's a scatterplot and (GAM) trendline showing that the number of advertised politics jobs has pretty much halved since 2021.
A scatterplot and (GAM) trendline showing that the number of advertised politics jobs has more or less halved since 2021
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
We look at a broader range of parties, albeit not in the panel due to data limitations. Here we find: - Geography and PE GCSE students are more likely to support the Conservatives. - Creative arts students support the Greens, while Music students are less likely to support the radical right.
This figure shows that those who study Geography and Physical Education are more likely to support the Conservatives, while those who take History are more likely to support the Lib Dems. The picture for creative arts is similar again, as those who take Art, Music or Drama are more likely to support the Greens, while those who study Drama GCSE are also more supportive of the Lib Dems, and those who take Music are less likely to support the radical right. Perhaps as a result, studying Art is again negatively associated with support for the Labour party. Finally, studying the humanities is associated with naming any party when prompted: students of History, Geography, Foreign Languages and Religious Studies are more likely to express a vote intention.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Looking next at party of vote, we find: - History and Drama students become less likely to support the Conservatives. - While Business Studies makes a student more likely to support the Conservatives. - Technology students become even less likely to intend to vote Labour than they were beforehand.
This figure looks at the relationship between different GCSE subjects and vote intention. As we saw when looking at the CHES scores above, there are relatively few differences between individuals before they start studying their GCSEs on these dependent variables. Those who go on to study History and Business Studies are more likely to support Labour, and those who go on to study Technology subjects are less likely to support Labour. Looking at the within-person coefficients however, we see more evidence of subject influences on political preferences during the years of GCSE study. Those who study History and Drama become less likely to support the Conservative Party, whilst those who study Business Studies become more likely to support the Conservatives (despite their initial pro-Labour inclination). Meanwhile, those who study a Technology subject become even less likely to intend to vote Labour than they were beforehand.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
When looking at the within-effect of studying certain subjects for GCSE, we find: - History and Art students become more likely to vote for a more socially-liberal and economically left-wing party. - Technology and Business Studies encourages greater support for an economically right-wing party.
This is a regression plot showing the between and within coefficients of different subject choices at GCSE. The first set of coefficients on the left – the between-person coefficients – tell us about the average differences between people who take each of the different subjects at the point of selection. There are relatively few differences between subjects before students begin their GCSE-studies; young people who choose to study at least one Technology subject are more likely than their peers to intend to vote for a more socially authoritarian party (according to the GAL-TAN scale), and also for a more economically right-wing party. In addition, those who will Art GCSE are initially more likely to support a party that is left-wing economically. However, more differences are apparent if we look at the within-person variation (on the right), our measure of how subjects change political preferences. Here we see that those who study History GCSE become more likely to intend to vote for a more socially-liberal and economically left-wing party when they study the subject, as do those who study Art GCSE. Meanwhile, studying a Technology subject leads to greater support for socially authoritarian and economically right-wing parties, while Business Studies encourages greater support for an economically right-wing party.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨 "School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support" Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1080/0140... 🧵👇
Article abstract, which says:

The educational cleavage is restructuring electoral competition in many democracies, yet there has been insufficient attention on how variation in educational content affects this. In order to address this, this article combines English administrative school records with a unique representative panel of adolescents to estimate the within-individual effect of studying different subjects at school on political party preference. This analysis finds that studying arts and humanities subjects leads to greater support for socially liberal parties, whilst studying business and economics increases support for economically right-wing parties. Students who study technical subjects become more likely to support socially conservative and economically right-wing parties. These relationships between particular subjects and party support also persist into adulthood. As such, this article provides new evidence on the importance of subjects taken in secondary school for political socialisation, during the impressionable years of adolescence.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Yes they did! But shorter lived than now I think en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
Polling for 2017 to 2019
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
I don't think UKIP ever had a lead in national vote intention, eg here's the polling from 2010-2015 which was their peak: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
GB polling averages from 2010 to 2015, from the Wiki page
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Didn't know Times Higher Ed were in the room but nice to see this write-up for @robfordmancs.bsky.social and my presentations at the CGHE seminar yesterday: www.timeshighereducation.com/news/graduat...
Also speaking at the event, Ralph Scott, a political scientist at the University of Bristol, said his research has shown that higher education represents an “emerging political cleavage” in Britain.

Graduates and non-graduates identify more with those from within their group and are more likely to vote for those who match their educational level, he added.

“This educational divide will continue to restructure party competition in Britain over the coming years.”
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Barnet graph of doom remains undefeated
The notorious Barnet graph of doom from 2012, showing that the cost of providing adult social care and children's services will exceed the borough's predicted budget around about now:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/may/15/graph-doom-social-care-services-barnet
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
(examples of the questions used for these scales)
Traditionalism (ANES):
• The world is always changing and we should adjust our view of moral behavior to those changes.
• We should be more tolerant of people who choose to live according to their own moral standards even if they are very different from our own. (not asked in 2020)
• This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional family ties.
• The newer lifestyles are contributing to the breakdown of our society. (not asked in 2020)

Egalitarianism (ANES):
• Our society should do whatever is necessary to make sure that everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed.
• This country would be better off if we worried less about how equal people are.
• It is not really that big a problem if some people have more of a chance in life than others.
• If people were treated more equally in this country we would have many fewer problems.
• One of the big problems in this country is that we don’t give everyone an equal chance.
(not asked in 2016 or 2020)
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
We also find that beyond those turned away due to a lack of ID, many more were discouraged at each of the elections held since the legislation came into effect. At GE2024, 1% of eligible voters didn’t attempt to vote due to lacking ID and 0.3% reported being turned away (making 1.3% overall).
At each of the 2023 and 2024 local elections and the 2024 general election, we asked respondents a series of questions about their turnout behaviour including whether they voted, how they voted (e.g. by post, by proxy, in person) and, if they did not vote, the reasons for that. They were also asked whether their photographic identification was checked at the polling station and if they were turned away because of lack of voter ID.

This graph shows the percentage belonging to each category broken down by possession of valid photo ID for each election.

Overall, the total proportion of all those eligible to vote in the May 2023 elections reporting that they did not attempt to vote because they lacked identification or were turned away for that reason was 2.4%. This constitutes a significant number of disenfranchised electors, comprising 1.9% who were discouraged and 0.5% who were turned away.

The equivalent figures were slightly lower in the 2024 local elections: 1.2% did not attempt to vote because of lack of ID and 0.3% reported being turned away (making 1.6% overall with rounding). In the 2024 general election, 1% didn’t attempt to vote due to lacking ID and 0.3% reported being turned away (making 1.3% overall). This represents a small but meaningful population of voters (over half a million people) who were unable to vote due to the new legislation.
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
For example, here's the relationship between age and driving licence ownership. We suggest this is driven by the introduction of photo licences in 1999 – some of those aged 50-70 still retain non-photo licences – but those over 70 must reapply for their licence every three years.
A discontinuity plot showing that photo driving licence ownership steadily declines from the age of 50 until 70, where it suddenly increases again.
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