Freedman leaves out one variable: Germany. Putin's bet is that NATO hesitates. 2020: the AfD frames the Bundeswehr in Lithuania as an escalation risk. 2024: Chrupalla says the alliance must respect Russia's interests. Moscow needn't steer anything. It can just read the party line.
nytimes.com
Opinion | Putin’s Desperate, Dangerous Game in Europe (Gift Article)
Vladimir Putin wants Europe to turn off its support to Ukraine, and he’s becoming more blatant in his warnings.