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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

French to english translation "- TP ICAP Midcap revalues Wallix from 26 to 30 euros ('buy')." $ALLIX www.boursier.com/actualites/n...

boursier.com

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

It is really sehr schön case with Ceotronics on multiple levels, which is extremely rare in my experience to come by. Let's briefly go through some points of interest -> 1/X

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

The market is pricing in losses and acting as if the Thrustmasterand Hercules audio businesses will soon be liquidated, instead of acknowledging the raised forecast and profit guidance that just came out today.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Things aren't perfect or easy, but let’s not forget the context and price here: $GUI is raising guidance while currently having a €75 million market cap at €5.1, €36m in cash, and €40 million in working capital.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

A lot of newsflow and momentum into Q4 & Christmas for highest volume products competing mainly with Logitech $LOGI. All in all I believe Guillemot has delivered a very strong print, and I’ll be surprised if there isn’t a strong market reaction tomorrow.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

T598 wheels production is back. There's a transition underway to a new generation of entry level products (the previous ones were quite old, having been on the market for over 5 years), so new launches are coming soon.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

That's why company guides for positive profits too. A decline of only 5% y/y in Q2 (considering Trump’s tariffs and massive export and pricing issues to the US) in my opinion is significantly better than expected.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Guillemot Corp. $GUI has published its Q2 revenue figures. Most importantly, the completely unexpected upward revision of the revenue forecast from €110m to €120m for 2025 stands out. It means H2 will be very very strong and operating leverage will work again here. 1/X ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Another clear positive is the recent easing of procurement processes in Germany by Bundeswehr which looks to ease and speed up contracts. t.co/defHzjS10d

t.co

https://defence-industry.eu/germany-moves-to-speed-up-bundeswehr-procurement-with-new-temporary-legislation/

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

So, by this it really seems like a big gap of sets that needs to be ordered to assure that the majority of soldiers will be equipped. Certainly, it is very important in a combat scenario.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

It will be very interesting to follow the order development on this side given this new large planned expansion which is much larger number at the time when the large framework contract time was signed 191k sets until 2031.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

There seems to be a very large gap between amount of soldiers versus sets procured 191k for the Bundeswehr contract and this communication is mission critical.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Sehr Schön with Ceotronics - the recent indication of Bundeswehr to double military personel by 2031 from c. 220K now including reservists to around 400K by 2031 should mean great news for Ceotronics -> 1/X t.co/MDaje0WYE8

t.co

https://thedefensepost.com/2025/07/25/germany-compulsory-military-screening/

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Yes there are only few leaders left in PAM niche... and Wallix $ALLIX is the only European one.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Current $CYBR FY2025 multiple is 16x Sales. This multiple applied to Wallix means it should change hands/control at >€102 vs €23 now. I know it should have discount, due to smaller size and European focus, so please do your own math, what will happen when cybersecurity consolidation is accelerating.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Palo Alto Networks $PANW rumoured to buy CyberArk $CYBR . As a reminder CyberArk is the major competitor of Wallix $ALLIX in privilleged access management sector in Europe -> 1/X t.co/ayGsRqCSKw

t.co

https://on.wsj.com/4lUTngi

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Out of all the microcap defense plays in EU only a select few stand out by natural order and will likely play out very well in the coming years - but nothing really compares to Ceotronics $CEK.DE - think the R/R is simply on the extreme side. 1/X ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Remember the recent interview with Wallix CEO? There he mentioned "Regarding a change of control of WALLIX, we are regularly approached and open to discussion" (translation from french) Exciting times ahead to say the least. t.co/DTD4zfd39f

t.co

https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/Wallix-Nous-attendons-en-Europe-un-sursaut-en-matiere-de-souverainete-numerique-50365045/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Well, just wondering here with these strong signals for for how much longer can it stay deeply undiscovered? And secondly wondering for how long can this unique european cybsec high quality software pureplay remain listed?

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Overall industry context is very important here - there is ONLY one industry accredited leading local player in EU: it is Wallix. The rest are basically US or Israeli players that are currently much, much larger than Wallix. It is what it is.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Just recently but not mentioned in the report is also Computer Gross in Italy one of the largest IT distributors in Italy (>2BN EUR Revenues). t.co/bXiDbxJRMf

t.co

https://www.wallix.com/it/comunicati-stampa/computer-gross-e-wallix-group-siglano-un-accordo-di-distribuzione-per-rafforzare-la-sicurezza-informatica-in-italia/

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

It is interesting to note that Wallix is rapidly increasing contracts with large players across the board, naturally this should speak for strong continued growth.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Ile-de-France Mobilité oversees public transportation in Paris and its suburbs and in the Île-de-France region.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

Région Hauts de France has a population of 6 million people and encompasses five departments and is the northernmost region of France.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

First, Société des Grands Projets is primarily responsible for designing, financing, and constructing the Grand Paris Express (major automated network expansion for Greater Paris Region).

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

"and the signing of major contracts, notably in the public sector (Société des Grands Projets, Région Hauts de France, Ile-de-France Mobilité" So who are those three clients they mentioned? Well, these are major contracts with some of the largest french public entities that secure cr. infrastr.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

An important fundamental aspect in the Wallix $ALLIX report yesterday that is clearly very interesting and clearly not discovered by the market, yet, lets go through it all -> 1/X

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Great customer mentions in the report are Lacoste, Naval group and Saudi Electricity company (OT security).

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

All EU defense programs are being launched and cybersecurity is included in them. Let me remind you, that this is the only such company outside of America that buyers of that type of software can consider. ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Looks like a new European CyberArk ($CYBR) is emerging fast. Keep in mind that today, $CYBR is trading at 16x EV/Sales, while Wallix is barely above 3x (for current year). It’s clear that their pole position in Europe is starting to pay off.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

", WALLIX is confirming its full-year targets: hypergrowth in recurring business, generation of an operating profit and the maintenance of a solid financial position."

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

"Given the level of activity recorded in the first half of 2025, WALLIX expects to see a considerable improvement in full-year operating profit. Based on the commercial momentum expected to continue into the second half combined with the strong visibility provided by recurring revenue" ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Like in most cybersecurity SaaS companies, I expected license sales to decline during the transition to subscriptions. Here we see growth. In the medium term, the key point is ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Wallix $ALLIX posted extremely strong results for H1 2025 (in terms of revenue, but also the revenue split). It's very impressive that despite SaaS revenues growing by +45.7% y/y, license revenues also increased by +11.7% y/y in H1 2025. This mix significantly exceeds expectations. -> 1/X

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 13/07/2025

Agree, that is impossible to know in detail the breakdown. In terms of agreggates FY2023 and FY2022 reports with info on plans to execute and imparments I think shows what was going on there (and where they were burning money)

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

I think this is significant enough here, below 100, or even 50 is not statistically significant. Theory aside but one could argue even 30+ shows a basic view. So I believe 200 is reasonably significant. Please keep in mind it is Gartner and thats B2B customer base, not some random retail poll.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

If you have any views what discount level to $CYBR $CIBR or generally cybersecurity SaaS names should be applied here, as always, I invite you join the discussion.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

However, it’s worth asking how much of this is truly justified, especially considering geopolitical factors and Wallix massive growth opportunities in the European and Middle Eastern markets, while achieving break-even in H2 2024. And now for the full FY2025.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Certainly, part of this is justified by lower liquidity/marketcap, a NASDAQ vs. France Euronext listing and CyberArk being an US-Global PAM leader rather than a European one.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

From a fundamental investor perspective, the key point is that CyberArk is now trading at 15x EV/Sales, while Wallix is still at around 3x EV/Sales today. Meaning a discount of nearly 80%.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Due to the scale of operations, there is a visible disparity in the number of reviews: CyberArk has 1087 ratings compared to Wallix 201 now. I think this perfectly confirms what an excellent job the Company’s (much smaller) product team is doing in its focus markets.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Very interesting current data from Gartner Peer Insights regarding PAM products. The ranking is used often by IT specialist and product buyers. Now Wallix $ALLIX has earned a rating of 4.5, which is higher than the 4.4 rating of the American market leader CyberArk $CYBR. Lets go it through ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

So it is not the current IT operation, but other ventures and burning some of generated cash (until 2023) have created this extremely rare and very mispriced opportunity. And yes, but it is not like that anymore.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

If you wonder why I believe weak sentiment is driven by previous management ideas. They made profitable IT business to go into losses. ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Margins are still improving and Company plans to grow IT business more. Buybacks, dividends, PE acquisition? Many ideas how this can work and be discovered by Mr. Market. I do not know how eventually, but I think it will find a way sooner than later.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

On top is a profitable IT business that should generate approx. €18m in EBITDA and about €12million in free cash flow in 2026 at 10x FCF means 1.5 per share...

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

While its valuation suggests it will disappear (discount to liquidation value). As a reminder: today’s mcap is €115m. By the end of 2025, the company should have >€50m in cash means 0.4 per share (with no debt!), a data center in Hamburg (own real estate) worth approx. €50m means 0.4 per share ->

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Generally, this stems from the fact that the previous management overspent on numerous ventures, but after a successful restructuring by the current CEO, the company now has strong execution, is meeting its forecasts, and has become profitable.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Granted, it’s only small size, but I assume that’s because the price moved up quickly before he bought more, currently trades at €0.94 vs. his purchases at €0.91.

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research2discovery @r2discovery.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

CEO of q.beyond AG $QBY, Thies Rixen, is back to buying shares at higher prices. In terms of risk-reward from a stable and recurring IT business, I believe this is an extreme case. Let's go it through ->

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