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Latvia’s election strengthens pro-Ukraine course
Latvia’s 3 October parliamentary election produced a clear mandate for continuity in the country’s hard-line security policy and support for Ukraine. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s centre-right United List (Apvienotais saraksts) secured 35.3 percent of the vote and 41 seats in the 100-seat Saeima—the strongest result for any single list since Latvia regained independence in 1991. Official Central Election Commission figures show turnout at 51.8 percent, the lowest in a post-independence parliamentary vote.
The remaining seats went to Latvia First (13.1 percent, 17 seats), the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians alliance (11.7 percent, 15 seats), the Progressives (7.9 percent, 10 seats), the National Alliance (8.9 percent, 10 seats), and New Unity (6.4 percent, 7 seats). The Union of Greens and Farmers fell just short of the 5 percent threshold and lost its representation.
Kulbergs, a businessman who became prime minister in May after the previous coalition collapsed over the handling of stray drones that entered Latvian airspace, has ruled out cooperation with Latvia First and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians. The latter alliance is the clearest pro-Moscow option still in parliament; its platform has included calls for neutrality, an end to aid for Ukraine, and restored economic ties with Russia and Belarus. Latvia First, led by Ainārs Šlesers, has courted some Russian-speaking voters and previously questioned sanctions, though it later condemned the invasion. Kulbergs has stated that any economic ties with Russia constitute a vulnerability that Moscow could exploit.
A governing majority is available without those parties. United List and the national-conservative National Alliance together hold 51 seats – the exact number required. Adding New Unity, the liberal-conservative party that led earlier governments and remains strongly pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine, would produce a more comfortable 58-seat bloc. All three share commitments to EU and NATO membership, elevated defence spending, and continued military assistance to Kyiv. Commentators and party statements indicate these are the most likely partners for coalition talks, which President Edgars Rinkēvičs is expected to facilitate this week.
The security implications are direct. Kulbergs campaigned on maintaining defence expenditure at 5 percent of GDP – one of the highest ratios in NATO – and on expanding anti-drone capabilities after the spring incidents. Latvia’s 2026 defence budget is already projected near 4.7–4.9 percent of GDP under national and NATO accounting, with legislation pointing toward a sustained 5 percent floor. Military aid to Ukraine is budgeted at roughly 0.25 percent of GDP for 2026, continuing a programme that has included equipment transfers, training for Ukrainian soldiers, contributions to the Drone Coalition (which Latvia co-leads and has funded at €50 million this year), and purchases from the domestic defence industry. Between 2022 and 2025, Latvian military assistance totalled approximately €665 million.
Kulbergs has publicly described support for Ukraine as a priority that will remain unchanged, linking it to the defence of NATO’s eastern flank and the avoidance of any arrangement that leaves Latvia exposed to pressure from Russia. The election result reduces the risk of a shift toward parties that have advocated reduced aid or restored commercial links. At the same time, the gains by Latvia First and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians – particularly in areas with larger Russian-speaking populations – highlight persistent domestic divisions over language policy, citizenship, and relations with Moscow. Those parties will remain in opposition under the coalitions currently under discussion.
The outcome therefore points to policy continuity rather than a reversal: sustained high defence spending, ongoing military and industrial support for Ukraine, and exclusion of forces that have called for neutrality or the relaxation of sanctions. Coalition negotiations will determine the precise composition and durability of the next government, but the arithmetic and the stated positions of the leading parties favour the existing pro-Ukraine orientation.
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This article draws on reporting by EUalive’s partner European Pravda
Caption: Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs (C) with his son Karlis Arturs speaks to the media after voting at a polling station during parliamentary elections to the 15th Saeima in Riga, Latvia, 03 October 2026. Latvian voters cast their ballots across the nation to elect all 100 members of the unicameral Saeima parliament for four-year terms. EPA/VALDA KALNINA
