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profpape.bsky.social

@profpape.bsky.social
151 followers 4 following 48 posts
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Here is a paywall free link to my new Foreign Affairs article, "America's New Age of Political Violence: What Happens when the Threat comes from Both the Left and Right": www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
America’s New Age of Political Violence
What happens when the threat comes from both left and right.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Just engaged in a profound discussion on American political violence on one of Europe's most watched programs. The topic of whether US political debate can rebound from Charlie Kirk's killing was explored on DW News Desk. I come in at min 18:05 www.youtube.com/watch?v=34vG...
youtube.com
Can US political debate recover from Charlie Kirk's killing? | DW News Desk
YouTube video by DW News
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Fox's Bill Hemmer and I discuss the new era of violent populism in America: video.foxnews.com/v/6379504110...
video.foxnews.com
Professor sounds alarm on 'violent populism' after Charlie Kirk assassination | Fox News Video
University of Chicago professor Robert Pape joined 'America's Newsroom' to discuss why he believes there has been a surge of politically-charged violence amid the fallout from Charlie Kirk's assassina...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
On “Chicago Tonight,” I discuss how Pres Trump is taking us down a dark road and why it is not too late to reverse course: news.wttw.com/2025/09/09/t... #ICEoperations #NationalGuardThreats
news.wttw.com
Trump Taking US ‘Down a Dark Road,’ Says UChicago Political Violence Expert
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s launch of “Operation Midway Blitz” this week is expected to ramp up the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Chicago.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
On "The Chicago Report," I engage in discussion with former Chief of Chicago Police and prominent ACLU leader on ICE operations and potential threats posed by National Guard. Watch the insightful conversation: www.fox32chicago.com/video/1705024 #ChicagoReport #ICEoperations #NationalGuardThreats
fox32chicago.com
The Chicago Report: Panel debates ICE operations, threats of National Guard
Fox 32's Paris Schutz leads a panel with Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, Garry McCarthy, the former superintendent of the Chicago Police Department, and Ed Yoh...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
NPR All Things Considered's Scott Detrow and I had a thought-provoking discussion on What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory You can listen here: www.npr.org/2025/09/07/n...
npr.org
What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory?
NPR's Scott Detrow talks with Robert A. Pape of the University of Chicago about what happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory. Weeks of talk of sending federal troops ...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
The world is closely following how Chicago is bracing for federal troops. Watch my BBC interview: youtu.be/rcBiBIN0B0Q
youtu.be
BBC World News: Chicago Braces for National Guard
YouTube video by Chicago Project on Secuity and Threats
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
As expected in my NYT oped, Chicago is now beginning to mobilize protests vs the federal forces. The story confirms 150k+ undoc immigrants in Chicago, ~10% of city. President Trump, please reconsider your plan to "liberate" Chicago, as you recently called this. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...
nytimes.com
Chicago Braces for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
Fred Wellman and I discuss Chicago's Dark Road on his important podcast. Already has 100k views. You can watch it here: www.youtube.com/live/bn5ECRw...
youtube.com
LIVE: Chicago STRIKES BACK as Trump THREATENS INVASION
YouTube video by MeidasTouch
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
As highlighted in my recent NYT op-ed and exemplified in this article, U.S. cities appreciate federal assistance in combating crime. But, they are wary of excessive military presence due to its potential political ramifications. Read more about this nuanced issue: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/06/u...
nytimes.com
Many Cities Say Yes to Federal Police Help, but No to ‘Occupation’
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Surging federal troops into Chicago would be a dangerous mistake, but it is not too late for cooler heads to prevail. Explore the reasons why in my new New York Times piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Chicago Could Be a Powder Keg
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Is Trump interested in "law and order"? See the Surprisingly Violent “Non-Violent” Offenders in the Capitol Hill Siege who Trump Pardoned: cpost.uchicago.edu/publications...
cpost.uchicago.edu
UChicago CPOST
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Meet the violent offenders against police that Trump pardoned: cpost.uchicago.edu/publications...
cpost.uchicago.edu
UChicago CPOST
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
NYT has my extensive commentary on how Trump is siding with law and order so long as it supports his political agenda. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Deploys National Guard for D.C. Crime but Called Jan. 6 Rioters ‘Very Special’
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
(2 of 2) I had an lengthy discussion on why political violence is rising in America with CNN's Michael Smerconish. Here is my commentary: The rise in Political Violence with Robert Pape Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago Robert Pape: f.io/QvMIb2x4
f.io
Frame.io
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
(1 of 2) I had an lengthy discussion on why political violence is rising in America with CNN's Michael Smerconish. Here is his excellent opening commentary: Smerconish: Civility in Crisis – Running for office shouldn’t require a flak jacket. Commentary: f.io/hYP1CMbm
f.io
Frame.io
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
We are witnessing a significant moment in history. Israel’s campaign in Gaza is the most lethal case of a Western democracy using the punishment of civilians as a tactic of war. Israel must reverse course or face the world's growing wrath. www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/unpar...
foreignaffairs.com
The Unparalleled Devastation of Gaza
Why punishing civilians has not yielded strategic success.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
In the midst of mounting tensions across the United States, Texas lawmakers have sought sanctuary in Illinois. Divisions in the US continue to escalate from words to actions. Check out my recent interview with ABC News to gain more insights: (abc7chicago.com/videoClip/17...)
abc7chicago.com
Texas Democrats increase spotlight on Pritzker as key figure opposing Trump agenda
Politicians leaving the state is a tried and true strategy. But this fight is happening on a bigger stage, said UChicago Political Science Professor Robert Pape.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
What are the lasting consequences of bombing Iran? Regime change? More War? Enduring cease-fire? I was part of deep conversation with highly knowledgeable experts hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. To learn more, watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCi4...
youtube.com
The Middle East on Edge: What’s Next for Iran, Israel, and the Region
YouTube video by Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
To delve deeper into the analysis, my original Foreign Affairs article is here: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
Israel’s Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program—or its government.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
It's evident that the outcomes predicted in my Foreign Affairs article about the strategic consequences of bombing Iran have materialized. The bombing bolstered support for the Iranian regime and failed to eradicate its enriched uranium. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/w...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
The Middle East is edging closer to a potentially catastrophic nuclear conflict, with unprecedented challenges. To avert these looming dangers, a transformative shift in America's nuclear policy is imperative. Read more about this critical issue: www.chicagotribune.com/2025/07/20/o...
chicagotribune.com
Robert A. Pape: To prevent nuclear war in the Middle East, America needs to change its nuclear doctrine
The world is moving closer to the brink of nuclear war in alarming ways that are more dangerous and harder to anticipate than during the Cold War. The famous 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was a harrowi…
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
A short version of Postol's excellent technical analysis showing how elbow air shafts almost certainly prevented US bombs from destroying Fordo: www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriA...
youtube.com
BUNKER BUSTER BOMB Myth /MIT Prof Ted Postol & Lt Col Daniel Davis
YouTube video by Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
The best technical analysis so far showing how easy it was for Iran to move the 60% HEU and hard for US bombs to destroy the key chambers at Fordo, esp min 25-29 and 40-46: www.google.com/search?sca_e...
google.com
ted postol iran - Google Search
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Now clear Israel and US attacks on Iran's nuclear program were all high risk, no meaningful reward. We are not stopping nuclear breakout, but creating an Iran with nuclear teeth: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/u...
nytimes.com
Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
The main problem with Israel/US air strikes on Frodo is now clear: No way to assess damage to Iran's nuclear stockpile, just as I explained would happen week ago in detail: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels...
foreignaffairs.com
Israel’s Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program—or its government.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
On CBS Evening News, I discuss why it is too late for US air power alone to knock out Iran's nuclear program, and turn Iran into an angry beast with nuclear teeth: cbsnews.com/video/what-a...
cbsnews.com
What are Iran's retaliation options if the U.S. were to strike?
President Trump says he will decide whether to strike Iran within the next two weeks. Iran's supreme leader has warned that U.S. intervention would cause "irreparable damage." Robert Pape, professor o...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
See why Israel and now the US are falling into the "smart bomb trap" -- overconfidence in air power leading to another "forever" war: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels...
foreignaffairs.com
Israel’s Futile Air War
Precision strikes will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program—or its government.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Why America is on the brink of an extremely violent era in politics and what we can do about it: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Political Violence Is Rising. This Is What We Can Do to Stop It.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
NYT, CNN report Israel hitting residential buildings in Tehran, w 100+ civilians killed. If a mistake, Israel should express deep regret for killing civilians, as US did in Kosovo. Crucial to limit escalation, esp as Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
nytimes.com
Live Updates: Israel Launches New Strikes on Tehran
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
Israeli strikes predictably hitting Tehran residential areas. But as Iran-Iraq “war of the cities” and many Western bombing campaigns show, punishing civilians won’t cause Iran to back down. Iran nuclear weapons getting closer by the day: www.cnn.com/world/live-n...
cnn.com
Live updates: Israeli death toll rises as conflict rages with Iran | CNN
Iran and Israel have launched more round of missiles at each other as the Middle East conflict escalates. Follow our live updates.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
Pres Trump’s statement condemning political violence in Minnesota is strong. A joint video statement by Trump and Newsom would be best! In everyone’s interest to avoid 3rd act of pol violence in a week, esp w/ shooter on loose. #PoliticalViolence #Trump #GovNewsom: www.fox9.com/news/donald-...
fox9.com
MN lawmaker shootings: President Trump says 'such horrific violence will not be tolerated'
President Donald Trump says “such horrific violence will not be tolerated" after Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were fatally shot in a targeted attack early Saturday. The suspect ...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Crucial for Pres Trump, Speaker Johnson and Republican political leaders to stand up loudly against the politically motivated assassination of Democratic lawmakers: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
nytimes.com
Live Updates: Minnesota Lawmaker Is Assassinated in Act of ‘Targeted Political Violence’
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Last evening, I was on Meidas Touch's large podcast discussing the next phase of the protests and the crucial positive program going forward. 5 million subscribers, 200k views so far, 6,000 live: www.youtube.com/live/jbcG8TI...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The big question: Why would Iran abandon nuclear weapons if Israel can attack the country and its leaders for any reason Israel wants? Unless the US answers this question, any future negotiations with Iran are unlikely to produce meaningful results.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
A big risk: Isreal strikes Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr, Iran retaliates vs Israel's nuclear plant at Dimona. Radiation spreads in both countries. Trump's goal should be to de-escalate this now, not threaten more as he is now
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
In 100 years of trying, air power alone has never toppled a government. Israel's leadership decapitation strikes are likely to be just another data point. www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
fdd.org
Possible Targets in Iran: Military, Nuclear, and Regime Infrastructure
...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
US has 40k troops and bases within easy range of Iran's missiles and proxies: www.americansecurityproject.org/national-sec...
americansecurityproject.org
U.S. Bases in the Middle East
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Israel's military chief of staff promises costs, not success: “People of Israel, I can’t promise absolute success. The Iranian regime will attempt to attack us in response. The expected cost will be different from what we are used to.” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
IDF chief: A time of difficult decisions; we’ve long prepared for this
* * *
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
While world watches Iran, Israel may well escalate further in Gaza. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iScc...
youtube.com
Israel-Hamas War: Israeli Plan Entails Holding Of Territories After Gaza 'Conquest' | WION Dispatch
YouTube video by WION
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The strikes show gross incompetence by the Trump admin on national security. The US has allowed Israel to create a hornet's nest in the Middle East At risk: US troops, oil, and terrorism. Trump is now a pro-war president -- the opposite of what he promised just months ago.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Israeli strikes have wider implications, entangling the US in the conflict. Without decisive victory, Iran is likely to rebound, becoming even more radical. Greater challenges for the US coming and won't end soon.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Israeli strikes on Iran are falling into that I call the "smart bomb trap" - overconfidence in precision air strikes that ignores powerful nationalist reactions of defiance leading to a costly quigmire. The US fell into the trap vs Iraq in 2003. Iran is more dangerous.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Israeli air strikes are unlikely to knock out Iran's nuclear program. Fordow is the key, deeply buried under a mountain: isis-online.org/isis-reports...
isis-online.org
Summary of Report: The Fordow Enrichment Plant, aka Al Ghadir [1] - | Institute for Science and International Security
ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution providing public knowledge of nuclear proliferation and international security.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
As LA tensions rise, escalation beyond the city looms large. Our CPOST national survey shows 40% of Dems believe force is justified to oust Trump from office, while 25% of Rs back Trump's deployment of military forces vs protests Gov Newsom and Pres Trump should end this now.
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
With 1 million illegal migrants near LA, escalation from Trump's deploying National Guard is a genuine concern. With 60% of country favoring deportation, a spectacle could backlash, with public backing for stricter actions. Prime time for cooler heads: www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unautho...
migrationpolicy.org
Profile of the Unauthorized Population - County Data (6037)
Learn about the estimated 11.4 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States—where do they live? When did they arrive in the United States, and from which origin countries? What are thei...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Ukraine drone attack signals protracted Russian vulnerability. Like Israel’s pager attack vs 4000 Hamas fighters, the strategic effect of an intelligence network inside the enemy may be even more important than the 1000 fold tactical cost benefit ratio: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
atlanticcouncil.org
After Ukraine’s innovative airbase attacks, nowhere in Russia is safe
Ukraine carried out one of the most audacious operations in modern military history on June 1, using swarms of smuggled drones to strike four Russian airbases simultaneously and destroy a significant ...
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profpape.bsky.social @profpape.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
I had a fascinating conversation with Fred Wellman on his On Democracy podcast on the danger of protest movements falling into violence and how we can avoid the trap. #Democracy #PoliticalViolence youtu.be/lTcfYRAlljc
youtu.be
We are on the edge of violence
YouTube video by On Democracy Channel
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