Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026WA is 60,484 homes short over four years. The undersupply runs back seven years with no reversal in sight. Market tightness will persist until building catches population growth. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026Rolling annual property transfers fell 13% by June after a May stamp duty change. That's the steepest drop of fifteen national markets tracked by the ABS. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026Supply shortfall and price growth moved together in WA with a 0.80 correlation, tighter than any other state measured. The maths are physical: fewer homes, more people. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026Perth median house price hit $1.01 million, up 18.8% in a year. Mean dwelling price grew 22.9% annually and 92.5% over five years, double the national average. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026It's not bigger families. WA's natural increase halved since 2018. The squeeze comes from seven straight years of undersupply, covering just 70% of population growth need. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 15/10/2026WA homes are filling five times faster than any other state. People per dwelling jumped 0.178 since mid-2018, the steepest shift in the country. NSW and Victoria went backwards. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026If wages had kept pace with loan growth, Sydney median weekly income would be $4,580, not $1,823. Structural affordability crisis across the country. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The old line holds no water: rates were 17% but they fell fast. Today's 6.24% rate is likely sustained. Borrowers face years of this, not months. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026One more 0.25 point rate rise would push Sydney repayments to 67% of income, Brisbane to 61%, Adelaide to 59%. The pressure continues building. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Adelaide shifted most dramatically. In 1990, a $58,499 loan took 42% of income. Today's typical $671,709 loan takes 57%. Loan size up 11 times. Income up 3.5 times. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Loan sizes have grown 10 to 13 times since 1990. Incomes have risen just 3.4 to 4.3 times. That's the gap driving unaffordability across all eight capitals. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Mortgage repayments now consume a bigger share of income in every Australian capital city than they did in 1990 when rates hit 17%. Sydney borrowers are spending 66% of median income on repayments. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026One more 0.25% rate rise pushes Adelaide to 50% of income, Brisbane to 52%, Sydney to 56%. The pressure may not be over. This is structural, not cyclical. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Peter Drennan, Head of Research: "Rates that high didn't last. Within two years they'd fallen below 10%. Today's borrowers face a long stretch of rates like these, with more rises still possible." 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The structural problem: loan sizes have outpaced income growth by a factor of 3. If Sydney wages kept pace with property prices, median weekly income would be $4,580, not $1,846. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Sydney and Melbourne are outliers, but barely. Sydney repayments take 54% of income (down from 62% in 1990). Melbourne: 46% (down from 50%). Still close to half of all earnings. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Brisbane shifted most dramatically. A typical 1990 loan of $58,127 took 47% of median income. Today's typical loan of $751,001 takes 51%. The loan grew 13 times. Income did not. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 30/09/2026In 6 of 8 Australian capitals, mortgage repayments now consume the same share of income as they did in 1990 when rates hit 17.5%. Except rates are now 4.6%. The difference: loans are 10-13 times larger, incomes only 3-4 times higher. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Further RBA increases are likely. Each 0.25 percentage point rise reduces borrowing power by another 1 to 2%. The squeeze on purchasing capacity shows no sign of easing. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Investor loans and loans above $1 million have experienced sharper rises. Investor rates climbed from 3.06% to 6.41%. Premium loans rose from 2.48% to 6.32%. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Existing borrowers are being hit harder. Those who locked in 3-year fixed rates at 2.02% in 2021 are rolling onto rates now averaging 6.21% across all outstanding loans. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026A buyer purchasing a $1 million property in 2021 faced $3,274 monthly repayments. Today's equivalent $1.41 million property costs $6,938 monthly. Repayments up 112% in five years. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026In March 2021, the average variable rate on new owner-occupier loans was 2.77%. By June 2026, it reached 6.24%. The RBA's September rise pushes it higher still. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The same $4,093 monthly mortgage repayment now borrows $335,000 less than five years ago. Interest rates have more than doubled while house prices climbed 41%. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026First home buyers have gained ground for the first time in two years. But that advantage is fragile. If rates keep rising, the progress could vanish as quickly as it appeared. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Modelling shows the scheme removes about $96,000 upfront but costs an extra $587 monthly over 30 years. Rate rises since October have already eroded over a third of that borrowing capacity gain. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Half the $50,000 loan increase matches broader market movement. The other half is unique to first home buyers, consistent across seven of eight states. It's a structural shift in their borrowing behaviour. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Average first home buyer loans hit $610,063 in June, up $49,815 since the scheme opened. December quarter alone saw an 8.5% jump, the largest single quarter rise since the data series began in 2002. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The First Home Guarantee scheme opened October 2025 with no income caps and no LMI for 5% deposits. That changed how first home buyers bid on property, not just market conditions. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026First home buyer lending grew 3.3% in the past year versus 1.9% for the rest of the market. First time in two years they've gained ground. But the real story is the $50,000 bigger average loan. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026This isn't settling down. It's spreading. The industry opened a new occupation category and shortage appeared instantly across every state and territory. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/202644,500 beauty therapists work in Australia today, double the number two decades ago. Yet we still can't fill the roles. Supply has never caught demand. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Beauty therapists and dermal therapists are in shortage. Salon managers, makeup artists and massage therapists are not. The shortage is specific to hands-on treatment roles. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026The ABS created an entirely new job classification in 2025: dermal therapist. It landed on the national shortage list in every state before most people knew the title existed. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Shortages aren't a sign the sector is failing. They're a sign it's booming faster than training pipelines can supply. Every new worker hired widens the gap, not closes it. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Australia's beauty therapy workforce surged 64% in a decade. Yet shortages have only deepened. The industry grew 12% in one year alone, 8x faster than the broader economy. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Australia has built almost no electric buffer for vehicles carrying construction and freight costs. Businesses face the next shock with limited insulation. The data is clear. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Dave Green: A ute on diesel has no way to dodge a 30% price swing. The swing adds thousands yearly inside a system never built to move that fast. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Diesel volatility is now baked into road construction, freight and building costs. Q2 construction prices up 4.5% since 1997 records began, driven by bitumen and fuel surcharges. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Utes under 4.5 tonnes get zero fuel tax credit. Heavier vehicles saw their credit move 2.1 cents while diesel rose 55.6 cents. The system was never built for this speed of change. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026A tradie doing 30,000km yearly is now $2,135 worse off per year. Their diesel bill climbed from $7,140 to $9,277. The fuel tax credit system hasn't kept pace with the surge. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Diesel prices up 30% in six months. Australia's 3.2 million diesel utes and vans have almost no electric alternative: just 948 registered. That's a $3.5 billion annual hit to the fleet. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Households keeping spending hot three tightening cycles deep signals either confidence or constraint masking real strain. The RBA will read it as the former, moving nowhere on 29 September. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Mortgage holders missed or paid bills late at 32.6%, nearly double the 17.6% rate for outright owners. That gap won't close if rates hold steady or rise further. 101 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/202637 economists surveyed in August expect zero rate cuts by year-end. The cash rate stays at 4.35% minimum. Discretionary spending holding firm removes the RBA's main justification to ease. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Recreation and culture alone account for 23% of total spending growth. Transport adds another 21%. Two categories drive 44% of growth from just 34% of the budget. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Total household spending hit $82.3 billion in July, up 7.0% year-on-year. The gap between discretionary (7.8%) and essentials (5.6%) growth tells the RBA's tightening isn't working as intended. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 24/09/202690% of household spending growth is now discretionary, while essentials grew just 0.5% real. Three rate rises in and Australians are still splashing out on recreation and transport. 100 1
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 23/09/2026What began as a forecast in 2024 is now measurable reality. Households should prepare for further wealth contraction as rates and valuations stabilise. 000 0
Primara Research @primaraau.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The June quarter fall represents just 2.6% of the forecast total decline. Property values have tripled since 2008, so smaller percentage falls now equal larger dollar losses. 100 1
