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Stefan Bienkowski @sbienkowski.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

PSR has underlined how badly run most of them are.

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mark thompson @markposts.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

This post is about 'possession adjusting' defensive stats, but really it's about - exorcising past demons - the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft - extended metaphors get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...

get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com

Possession is not nine-tenths: analysis into possession adjusting

Defensive statistics in football are difficult to parse. Is adjusting for a team's possession share the answer? And can data for players ever fully be comparable?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

And as the biggest reminder ever, probably not needed for Stoke fans, but even so: Head coaches/managers are *highly* situational. The search for the ‘best’ manager at our level isn’t a thing, it doesn’t exist! It’s the *right* person for your process at that time that’s needed.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

I'd say, don't look too much into where Coventry are this season as a measure of Robins as a manager. I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

On performances, you really can’t argue with that as a sacking.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

“The entirety of Stoke City’s plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out. ‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’” potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...

potterlytics.blog

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City

Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

But how many lessons is it possible to learn? How many individuals do we give full control of our footballing direction before we find success? What even is success, as apparently midtable after 5 games isn’t it? If we do find it,what happens when they leave? A dice roll again?" 2/2

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

From the piece I wrote on Schumacher's sacking: "For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’." 1/2

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

Just to update: Since relegation, Stoke have had: 4 Managers 2 Head Coaches (soon 3) 12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13) 1 'Technical Board' 1 Sporting Director 3 Technical Directors 1 Director of Football 1 Head of Football Operations 2 Chief Scouts 2 Heads of Recruitment

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

Domination from Leeds. Stoke's inability to cover passing lanes out of possession exposed by a quality side.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

It lost me when I renewed last year, and the basic subscription suddenly stopped providing you with basic team rankings and stats, and only gave you 70 minutes of viewed footage and a report a month. Absolutely mad.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out. There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs." potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...

potterlytics.blog

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City

Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Sorry, bit of a long one! It's been a while and there's lots to say 😅 Data-driven as much as it is frustration-driven, but any comments or questions always welcome, enjoy!

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

potterlytics.blog

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City

Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

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Jeff Rueter @jeffrueter.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Choupo-Moting is the latest in a surprising run of Stoke City's 2017-18 squad coming to MLS: - Xherdan Shaqiri - Ryan Shawcross - Geoff Cameron - Tom Edwards - Bojan Krkić - Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

In fairness I'd be very surprised to see him go anywhere. I'm not sure he's got the feet to be in the PL just yet, and it'd take a huge huge bid for Stoke to let him go.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

As far as I can find, no Championship goalkeeper since they started recording Post-shot xG - a measure of how difficult a shot is to save - has come close to how good Viktor Johansson has been for Stoke this season. An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

As an first glance, I actually think we’re on a similar points total to what would be expected on the chances for/against, but nothing concrete yet on it.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

There is! That's my next plan, may take a bit of time mind, but will hopefully be in the final piece later this week!

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

As a quick explainer, I essentially take each shot and simulate it 100,000 times, with the xG of the chance taken as the probability of it being scored. There are big caveats on this, especially in the treatment of lots of shots in one sequence, but it's reasonable for this use case.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

An upcoming piece this week. It won't be nice, but just as a quick preview: I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times: In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life. A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Well, If you're wondering why Stoke fans are so concerned, and wondering why Narcís Pèlach had to come out and say he was changing some things in the defensive structure, erm... This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Absolutely great to see Arsenal playing with a rest defence made up entirely of 6’+ centre halves, a couple of quick wingers and scoring through blocking in set pieces. Pulis laughing.gif

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Spotted that Tom Cannon has been nominated for Player of the Month. His shots & passes for November below. I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end. 3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy? Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Now actual Sandi Toksvig please.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Delighted to announce two new features on my web app! championshipdata.streamlit.app Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below! Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones

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George Weaver @gweaver.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Update to championshipdata.streamlit.app! Check out the new chalkboard maps for passes, and the heat maps too! Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.

championshipdata.streamlit.app

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Enjoy, everyone! Comments appreciated! (I know it's slow, that's my next project :D) championshipdata.streamlit.app

championshipdata.streamlit.app

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

In the heatmaps, you can select a range of bin sizes when comparing within the plot (i.e. the number in each bin), but you are fixed to the set zones when comparing with the league average for each zone. You can also select either start/end points, and whether you display each point on the plot!

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

In the chalkboards, you can select for the following: Match/matches/all season Minute/Half OP/Set Piece Outcome Start/end Zone vertically & horizontally Specific coordinate ranges Events (cross/prog pass/assist/etc) Player making and receiving pass Direction Distance It's all there to choose from!

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

A switch to a back 3 today. Extra centre back probably indicated more focus on defending the box, and allows a bit more freedom for Bocat/Tchamadeu with Stevens still recovering from Tuesday's game. Big test for Pèlach's defensive plans, can they do it against a top side?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Yeah there's a mixed reaction to it for me. The tactic itself is one thing, I understand why it's the plan and it does indeed reduce the value of chances you face. But I still feel we're conceding more than we would by doing it, particularly against sides like QPR. Big questions over sustainability

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Not necessarily, generally a really intense press will have high*er* running stats, but Stoke are _incredibly_ passive in their press. I’d say if running numbers are high, they’re from quick recovery runs, I.e. dropping 11 men behind the ball as quickly as possible when the lines are broken.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Couldn’t tell you, honestly. GPS data is hard to get hold of on the fly. I would say that doing lots of running isn’t necessarily an indicator of a side that’s improved or better. Lots of sides putting up high running numbers are doing so because they’re tactically off it.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Oh very much so, especially in the championship. I think that we’re very over-reliant on dropping deep, and that’s causing the opposition to get more chances (and be more likely to win those moments) than they should be. Especially in games like QPR.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

True, but it’s certainly a better indicator of your underlying performances, and whether your form is likely to be sustainable or not. Not to say Stoke can’t have a good season results wise whilst playing poorly, it’s just much less likely.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

A couple of really useful bits of info here on Stoke's lack of intensity and over-willingness to drop into a low block. 4th lowest PPDA (allow the opponent to pass the ball in their own 2/3rds more than all but 3 teams before challenging), 3rd lowest field tilt, lots of defending in their own 3rd

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

In fairness, Stoke have only done that 3 times since Pèlach took over, there's room for questions and analysis beyond the scoreline imo!

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Stoke are in a bit of an interesting spell at the minute, and there are some big questions to answer. Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

This! This! This! My biggest issue with everything Stoke have done the past decade in a nutshell. The transition from the manager setting the vision to the DoF is an improvement, but it’s still a fundamental misunderstanding of what a DoF is for.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

I guess the whole thing comes back to that question I asked before. How long can you rely on bodies in the box, GK overperformance, and a quality attack suited to counter, for results? Does the added pressure affect opponent finishing? And will Pèlach look to expand the plans as he gets more time?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

& conceding shots through bodies leads to its own worries. Stoke may have felt unfortunate to concede the goals they did in games like Sheff Utd & Bristol City, with mistakes and deflections in the box having a big impact. But by allowing the opponent so close to goal, you invite bad luck onto you.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Whilst that is below what you’d expect in terms of the fraction of shots that are big chances, conceding *so many* high-value efforts on goal is an issue. Restricting the opposition to largely shoot through bodies is one thing, but if you’re still conceding >2 big chances a game, that’s not good.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

As Narcís Pèlach is keen to point out, conceding lots of shots doesn’t necessarily mean conceding ‘bad’ shots, and with lots of bodies in the box, Stoke certainly reduce the chance quality of the opposition. But even so, they’re still conceding the 4th highest number of big chances in the league.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Obviously, having an incredible keeper in Viktor Johansson helps, and his overperformance of post-shot xG to the tune of 0.6 goals per 90 has been crucial in getting results from poor performances. But can you rely on goalkeeper overperformance as a primary tactic?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Stoke almost entirely vacate the area in front of their box centrally off the ball under Pèlach, and in several games the ease with which opponents can get to Stoke’s box centrally or wide, has been a huge worry. See potterlytics.blog/2024/11/02/c... for an in-depth look at this.

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Stoke have conceded >2xG in 4 of Pèlach’s 10 games, but only lost 1 of these, 2-0 away at Middlesbrough. 0-0 & 2-2 draws against Swansea and Bristol City respectively, alongside a maniacal 2-0 smash & grab against Blackburn lend credence to the plan, but how long can you run from underlying numbers?

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Potterlytics @potterlytics.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

But then comes Stoke’s own half, when that front press does get beaten. Stoke drop *incredibly* deep and narrow, almost solely focusing on defending the box. This leads to the huge number of opposition shots (and defensive actions in the box), but is it a good plan?

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