CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 28/09/2026Edvinsson is a pretty rare case of a shot blocking enforcer that is actually a very good player due to his complete D game which extends to protecting the blueline and playing competent offense. I'm sure a ton of teams would love a 23yo like this. 031
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 07/01/2026Moneypuck had it as the largest by a pretty comfortable margin lol (they could only check games w/o a goalie change tho) 231
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 06/01/2026This graph of yours went a bit viral over on the other place because it's objectively hilarious. x.com/CJTDevil/sta... 1252
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 04/01/2026This is perhaps more illustrative. The low-slot shots were likely being incorrectly recorded by human trackers and the chips have correctly placed them as right in the crease. Small movement, hugh xG impact. 220
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 04/01/2026I just chose an arbitrary pre-tracking season as a control though, and it looks the way you'd expect. Interestingly their model always seems to underestimate the slot a bit, but it's definitely worse now. 100
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 04/01/2026I'm less convinced that those are of particular importance. It doesn't seem to offer any marginal improvement on the topic. 010
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 04/01/2026Decided to look more at this and these graphs are using @evolving-hockey.com's xG (because they have an excellent query tool that makes it easy). So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking. 483
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 02/01/2026The reason I ask is because this is an interesting graph to me since, historically, only Fenwicks had xGs. This could interact with that fact to produce some sampling biases. 120
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 02/01/2026FWIW @naturalstattrick.com's is not quite as bad, and @hockeyviz.com is basically in tune! End of the calendar year feels like a good time for some reflection on if our public models are still working. 151
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 02/01/2026Idk exactly what's going on, I did some work earlier this year on the other site showing that it's been getting worse each year. NHL tracking changes may be relevant, but macro trends may also play a factor. Or I could be dumb. Open to being disproven. 140
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 02/01/2026Posted on the other site, but since I think these folks are more active here, probably worth cross-posting. A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected. This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social 3325
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 26/03/2025Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup. 260
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/03/2025Also playing 17+ minutes a night and the most PP time since his rookie season. At 5v5, his point rate is high for him but actually down from his NYR games this season. 000
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 24/03/2025I get playing Timo and Nico together in order to have a true top line talent on our top line, but it still feels like Timo's skills fit most naturally along Mercer who has simply never found out how to contribute without a driver. 240
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 21/03/2025FWIW ... I was right about this. Not that that's any consolation lol 120
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 16/03/2025According to @evolving-hockey.com's numbers, among skaters with 200+ minutes played this season, Simon Nemec is the least valuable NHLer in BOTH GAR and xGAR. A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season. 251
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 12/03/2025Kovacevic was just so solid. Bratt went beast move. And the Cody Glass Experience ™️ lives for another day! 090
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 12/03/2025A lot of guys played well tonight, but I think we all know who the true MVP of this game was. 2200
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 12/03/2025Just try to survive the Luke Hughes shifts so that true offensive juggernauts Brian Dumoulin and Jonathan Kovacevic can get to work 3110
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 11/03/202515% net swing in playoff probability on the line tonight. No pressure. 020
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 14/02/2025Glanced at @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM statistics for Forwards and Defensemen to examine their year-over-year predictivity of one another via correlation and via t-value in multiple linear regression model by year just to see if there have been any notable changes. There haven't, really. 130
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/01/2025And how is he away from MacKinnon? This is over the last 3 years. They've spent ~1000 minutes apart and ~2500 together. Nate doesn't seem to notice if Mikko is there or not. Mikko however, becomes a net negative. Yeesh. 121
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/01/2025It's all about production. In fact, if you look at the point rates they're the exact inverse of the 5v5 shot impact rates. But in the end, that skill is hard to come be and it's extremely valuable. Which is why Carolina is giving up more to get him. 120
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/01/2025And now from @theathletic.bsky.social (with blanks filled in by @hockeystatcards.com). Now we see the most clear description of what Carolina is upgrading. Rantanen's point production is a scarce and expensive skill that launches him into rare company value-wise. CAR 📈📈 140
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/01/2025On @evolving-hockey.com, however, there's a clear star and it's Rantanen. Grades out as an offensive dynamo and clear overall upgrade on Necas. Similar to HVs viz, Drury also grades out as a clearly useful defensive 5v5 piece. 2 3rd liners, one 1L and one star. CAR📈 120
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/01/2025Copied from my post at The Bad Place We'll start with @hockeyviz.com Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive. The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±. In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade. 2133
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 23/01/2025Devils pretty much in the dead center of the prospect pool rankings which is good for a team with as many good young NHLers as they have. However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect. 140
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 22/01/2025Combine the offensive "little things" like this with his already well-established positive defensive impacts (below) and it's not hard to see why Keefe may view this as a low-risk shot worth taking. 260
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 22/01/2025But you see the two major things Keefe loves about his game: 1) hustling deep on the forecheck which impacted the PHI and FLA goals, and 2) crashing the net which he did against FLA and OTT. And stats support this as he has been one of the most active forecheckers in the league the last two years. 170
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 22/01/2025Keefe really likes what he's seen from Bastian lately, mentioning that he's been on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals we've scored at 5v5 in that time (his overall numbers support that praise, though it gets less impressive if you use any more than 4 games) Regardless I wanted to look at those goals. 160
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 12/01/2025This is the list of the top 25 players-season in defensive value for a defenceman in the analytics era (2007-current) Siegenthaler-Kovacevic are both already on this list. There are 37 games left. 290
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 07/12/2024Hamilton and Dillon were dominant tonight. Dillon's numbers, in particular, were wild. 7-0 in high-danger chances, 90 xG%, and outscored Seattle 2-0 in his shifts. When he was off the ice, HDs were 5-8, NJ's xG% was 46, and goals were 1-1. The forwards got the love, but that pair was HUGE tonight. 3220
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 27/11/2024This is team +/- ratings according to @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM models in terms of shot quantity (x-axis) vs shot quality (y-axis). 5203
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 26/11/2024Carolina and Nashville were probably the two best 60-minute efforts from NJ since 2022-23 and it was against a very good and (IMO) very bad team. It's good to show we can win some blowouts and some right ones. This one was utter domination. With a 5-min PK and may natural hat trick to boot. 1310
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/11/2024Devils play the Predators tonight who, if current ratios held (they won't) they would have the worst GF% of any team in the analytics era. This exaggerates their struggles a bit though -- they're getting PDO'd into oblivion at 5v5. 3110
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 25/11/2024This doesn't mean much, really -- people google search things more when they don't know what they are, so it sometimes goes down as it gets known -- but I do think we can at least say that the period of exponential growth that this site was experiencing has likely subsided at least for now. 030
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 23/11/2024Whether by explicitly encouraging it, or by trickle-down effect of other schematic choices, Keefe's used the Hughes brothers' skating to do more keepaway at 5v5 rather than quick scoring chances. The result is significantly improved defensive impact, with perhaps slightly underwhelming offense. 170
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 23/11/2024Yes. But the one that makes MacDermid stick out the most is this: 5-minute majors per 60 minutes. He's #1 and he nearly doubles the next guy and more than TRIPLES other guys in the top 10. 190
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 22/11/2024The Devils Big 3 over time according to @hockeyviz.com's sG 2140
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 21/11/2024I'd take 65-70 points with his SJS impact numbers. But the elite RAPMs in SJ have simply not materialized here yet. 100
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 19/11/2024Interestingly, Micah had him falling of a cliff and just fixing the trajectory this year. So he's only got him at back to normal. I assume need have him as an early candidate for negative regression. 100
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 19/11/2024Yeah this will be really interesting to look into if it sustains. The progression of Strome and McMichael has raised their offensive ceiling. And some savvy GMing has improved depth and created 3 solid D-pairs. Carlson, TVR already good. Sandin, Fehvery improved. Added Roy, Chychrun. 260
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 19/11/2024You could make the argument that the Devils have had the best special teams performance in the NHL so far this season. 1130
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 19/11/2024According to @hockeyviz.com's Synthetic Goals metric, Carolina has 6 top-pairing caliber defensemen. Reminder: this team lost half their top 4 (Skjei and Pesce). 030
CJ Turtoro @posthockey.com · 19/11/2024Welp that's an infuriating person to lead the entire NHL in xG impact while the Devils trot out a 4th line containing the worst player in Devils history. 5222
