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Vitaly Portnikov

@portnikov.bsky.social
1.2K followers 164 following 583 posts

Ukrainian author and journalist. Espreso TV. Ukrainian PEN

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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 21h
That is why the person who can truly persuade Xi is the Ukrainian soldier. portnikov.substack.com/p/who-can-pe...
portnikov.substack.com
Who Can Persuade Xi Jinping?
Meetings between the President of the United States and the leader of China are always treated with particular attention, even though for many years now practically nothing has happened at these meeti...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
After November 3, 2026, we will find ourselves in a completely different world — one in which Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are unlikely to be Donald Trump’s biggest problem. portnikov.substack.com/p/donald-tru...
portnikov.substack.com
Donald Trump’s New Demands
The President of the United States emphasized that he told the President of Ukraine to stop strikes on Russia’s oil-refining complex because, he claimed, they are causing diesel prices to rise.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This is the holding of a trilateral summit of Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the meeting in Shenzhen. For Putin, such a meeting would be a huge achievement portnikov.substack.com/p/why-putin-...
portnikov.substack.com
Why Putin Needs Witkoff and Kushner
This is the holding of a trilateral summit of Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
You can obtain justice against a criminal — but you cannot change a country and a society if the citizens themselves do not want such change. portnikov.substack.com/p/the-rehear...
portnikov.substack.com
The Rehearsal
Srebrenica was the prelude to Bucha, and Sarajevo to Kharkiv — what Serbia teaches us about Russia
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Russian president gains opportunities when we refuse to tell ourselves and others the truth. portnikov.substack.com/p/another-wa...
portnikov.substack.com
Another War: Can Russia Seize All of Ukraine and Declare Its Regions Subjects of the Russian Federation?
It seems that four and a half years of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and 12 years of conflict between the two countries provide a clear answer to this question: no, Russia does not have the ...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The very symmetry — the fact that Ukraine can respond not only on the battlefield but also in the enemy's airspace — becomes an additional argument for Western partners in favor of further support. portnikov.substack.com/p/war-of-cit...
portnikov.substack.com
War of Cities
When the front line stagnates and doesn't move even a kilometer for weeks, armies sooner or later turn to another target — not the enemy's trenches, but its cities.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Ukraine needs anti-ballistic defenses, its own ballistic missiles, and the destruction of Russia’s ballistic missile capabilities. And within this triad, destroying Russia’s ballistic missile capabilities is the most important element. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Patriot or Starlink: What Ukraine Needs
Russia continues to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of missiles for Patriot batteries, which are needed to intercept ballistic missiles.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
So when the Kremlin reproaches its neighbors for what Stalin gave away, let it first remember what Stalin took. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
What Stalin Took
During one of his recent speeches, Putin claimed that the western regions of Ukraine were, as it turns out, a gift from Stalin — a man who, supposedly, never imagined that the Soviet Union would one d...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Russia supplies Iran with intelligence, and Ukraine strikes an Iranian tanker in the Caspian Sea. This is no longer two theaters of war, but essentially one,flowing into the other. Ukraine and Israel have one and the same most important ally and shared enemies blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-merging-...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: The Merging of Two Wars
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Laura Loomer's mission is primarily not to change her attitude towards Ukraine. It is to change her attitude towards Russia. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Mission of Laura Loomer
The arrival of the well-known American right-wing conservative blogger Laura Loomer to the Ukrainian capital was perceived by the Ukrainian authorities and covered by our media as if it were a visit b...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
And perhaps this is precisely the tango for two that Donald Trump spoke about to Volodymyr Zelensky – only not the tango of peace negotiations, but a tango of strikes against Russia. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
A Real Tango for Two
Yes, it turned out that two can play a war of survival.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Russia without money is a country one can deal with. Russia with money is a dangerous aggressor threatening humanity. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Graham's Law
Russia without money is a country one can deal with. Russia with money is a dangerous aggressor threatening humanity.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Lindsey Graham will remain the embodiment of the American politics that gave the world hope for peace and survival in the worst decades of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first. blogs.timesofisrael.com/americas-las...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: America’s Last Hawk
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Lindsey Graham will remain the embodiment of the American politics that gave the world hope for peace and survival in the worst decades of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
America’s Last Hawk
Lindsey Graham believed force was the language dictators understand — the new political class believes in nothing but elections
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
That is why the chief task of a journalist is not to propagate the theses offered by the author of a special operation, but to try to understand its purpose. substack.com/@portnikov/n...
substack.com
Vitalii Portnikov (@portnikov)
I have had to explain, more than once, that Putin thinks not in the categories of war and negotiations, but in those of the special operation — which is entirely logical given his chekist education an...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
And assistance to Ukraine, therefore, is not simply money and hardware. It is the chance to survive when you have been marked for death. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Logic of Terror
And assistance to Ukraine, therefore, is not simply money and hardware. It is the chance to survive when you have been marked for death.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
we will never become members of the EU unless we change Europe right now. Unless we can prove that it is precisely those countries which violate the criteria that must be punished, even if those countries are already in the EU. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Blackmail by History
What thirty years of Macedonia in the EU’s waiting room tells Ukraine about its own future
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
No one talks about the spirit of Anchorage anymore. Because there was no such spirit. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Spirit of Anchorage
No one talks about the spirit of Anchorage anymore.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Everything must be vast and meaningless — the Tsar Cannon that never fired, the Tsar Bell that never rang, the Tsar-Territory that was never settled or developed. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Tsar-Territory
Why Russia keeps seizing land it can neither settle nor use
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Yet the fact that a man who hoped to achieve his ends with a scalpel lost to those who offered a sledgehammer says a great deal — when it comes to understanding the processes of the past decades. substack.com/@portnikov/n...
substack.com
Vitalii Portnikov (@portnikov)
Sergei Ivanov became not merely the first to die among Putin’s closest associates. He was also the closest associate who utterly lost the apparatus struggle. A man who, at the turn of the millennium, ...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
What, then, is the point in our time of occupying foreign lands that you cannot defend? What sense does “the island of Crimea” make for Russia? open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Crimea Island
What sense does “the island of Crimea” make for Russia?
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
This is precisely the role of the United States as the leader of the democratic world: not to seek control over someone else’s oil or someone else’s minerals, but to help maintain a civilized world order. blogs.timesofisrael.com/dont-bet-eve...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: Don’t Bet Everything on One Man
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
But now the end of the war depends not only on Putin. It also depends on Zelenskyy. That is, on how the Armed Forces of Ukraine will act in the coming months, whether they can shake the Russian economic and energy potential. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Zelenskyy before meeting with Trump
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the anniversary of his American counterpart to congratulate him and discuss the upcoming meeting during the Group of Seven summit.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
It is high time, at last, to unite. We will still have the chance to debate the difficult past of the Polish and Ukrainian peoples — if Poland and Ukraine endure on the political map of the world to come. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
A Share of the White Eagle
Why a quarrel over a military unit’s name plays only into Moscow’s hands
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The only question is whether, at some point, Putin will be ready for such a pause not on the terms of Ukrainian capitulation, but on fair terms. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Why Zelensky Needs Abramovich
Abramovich has been an integral and important part of Putin’s system
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Any rift between the Polish and Ukrainian peoples will inevitably lead to Russia’s triumph. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
One Handshake Away
What Poles and Ukrainians forget when they argue about history
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
If Moscow loses control over Armenia — and it will — it will lose control over the Caucasus as well. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Armenia and the End of Russia’s Caucasian Trap
June 7 may prove to be one of the most important days for the future of what remains of the post-Soviet space.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
In the future, the struggle for power in Russia will be fought among these three forces — the FSB, the FSO, and the army. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
A Short Course in Russian History
A Short Course in Russian History
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
This is a new Putin — crushed by years of futility in the Russian-Ukrainian war and betrayed by his own inadequacy. And the next actions of such a Putin should be treated with even greater caution. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
A Broken Putin
Many explain the latest Russian attack on Kyiv and the Kyiv region as Putin’s desire to take revenge for the humiliation he felt during the preparations for the May 9 parade in Moscow.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Beijing would be satisfied with two options—either the annexation of former Ukrainian territories to Russia or the preservation of Ukraine as an independent state, but within the orbit of Russian influence and under significant Chinese oversight. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Trump, Xi, and the War in Ukraine
The visit of Donald Trump to the Chinese capital and his negotiations with the President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, have once again raised the question of how interested Beijing is...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Zelensky will have to offer Magyar something that can be presented as a compromise. Only then will the negotiating process move forward. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Ukraine, Hungary, and the Price of EU Accession
Hungary’s future prime minister, Péter Magyar, set a condition even before taking office: unblocking Ukraine’s EU accession talks in exchange for expanding the rights of Ukrainian citizens of Hungaria...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
The West helps Ukraine fight aggression with one hand, while financing that same aggression with the other. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Two-Hand Effect
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to Cyprus for an informal summit of European Union leaders was associated with an obvious victory.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Israel will be sorely disappointed if it expects better treatment from Russia for ignoring Ukraine’s claims about looted grain shipments blogs.timesofisrael.com/stolen-grain...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: Stolen grain on the Jerusalem tram
Israel will be sorely disappointed if it expects better treatment from Russia for ignoring Ukraine’s claims about looted grain shipments
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Azerbaijan and his meeting with Ilham Aliyev mark a new stage in the degradation of the post-Soviet space itself—and of Russian influence within it. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Aliyev, Zelensky, and the End of Russia’s Post-Soviet Order
Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Azerbaijan and his meeting with Ilham Aliyev mark a new stage in the degradation of the post-Soviet space itself—and of Russian influence within it.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
If Péter Magyar truly attempts to dismantle Orbán’s system, he will quickly open the door to free political competition and liberal democracy—and lose power, or be forced to change himself. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Dragon After Orbán
Among the many reactions to the collapse of Viktor Orbán and his party in Hungary’s parliamentary elections, one argument stands out: that Orbán cannot be a dictator—because otherwise he would not hav...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
The main conclusion the U.S. administration could draw from the results of Hungary’s parliamentary elections and Viktor Orbán’s stunning defeat is this: Europe is not disappearing, and the citizens of European Union countries want to remain Europeans.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Thus, both states, which found themselves at the epicenter of the largest conflicts since World War II, are doomed to live in the logic of the countdown for the next decades. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Countdown Logic
Amid the global security crisis in the Middle East, which effectively began on October 7, 2023, following the Iran and Hezbollah-supported Hamas attack on Israel, it is often heard - at least at demon...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
If Russia lacks the resources to wage war, the war itself will cease. Yes, this would make mutually beneficial economic cooperation impossible. But it would also create a chance to prepare for the next wa open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Scandal of Illusions
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
The very fact of this visit—and here the congress members who have issued statements of protest are right—is a disgrace for American politics, a disgrace for the Congress substack.com/@portnikov/n...
substack.com
Legitimizing the War Makers
After the delegation of the State Duma of the Russian Federation visited Washington, members of the U.S.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Society comforts itself with expectations of an inevitable end to the war while politicians comfort themselves with the inevitability of elections.And as long as neither happens,the authorities refrain from decisions that could undermine their elect. prospects blogs.timesofisrael.com/without-chur...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: Without Churchill
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
We were lying to ourselves that your occupation didn't exist, and thus facilitating your lies and preparations for a big war during which it was no longer necessary to play "separs. Why can't Putin use this same mechanism in Estonian Narva? open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Narva Republic and Donetsk Republik lessons
Following publications about the possibility of a "hybrid" Russian attack on Estonia or other Baltic countries, serious discussions have begun in both Ukraine and the West regarding the possibility of...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
So the civilized world today has only the experience of the Ukrainian army — and this is invaluable experience. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Ukraine and the Challenge of the Iranian War
The war with Iran demonstrated a truth that is always understood only after the struggle begins: military actions are always practice, not theory.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
To win—and even to survive—it is necessary to change the optics of war. blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-optics-o...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
The Blogs: The Optics of a Global War
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
As long as Russians believe that the statehood of Ukraine should be liquidated, and the Ukrainian people — canceled, the conflict will continue on several levels of escalation, even if Moscow lacks the strength for intensive military actions. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Floors of War
A few days before the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia's major attack on Ukraine, an explosion occurred in the very center of Lviv, which law enforcement agencies classified as a terrorist ac...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Illusion can win elections and dominate social media frenzies, but it can never truly prevail. Life will always defeat both death and lies. And you would do well to stand on its side — if you wish to survive and not lose yourself. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The Museum of Illusions We Call Reality
In recent decades, illusion museums have become a true trademark of global tourism.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
In reality, such negotiations do not bring peace closer—they only push it further away, because they allow the administration to refrain from applying greater pressure on Russia under the pretext of fearing to “block” the simulated “peace process.” open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Negotiations That Push Peace Further Away
The Munich Conference, during which world leaders traditionally exchanged views about the future—and devoted a great deal of time to Russia’s war against Ukraine—took place literally just a few days b...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Not threaten Ukraine and Russia with pressure in four months, but put pressure on Putin now. Apply pressure in such a way that the Russian president is left with no alternative but to stop waging war, killing, and shelling. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Four months of President Trump
The President of the United States emphasized that he is giving the Russian and Ukrainian leaders four months to end the war – and if that does not happen, he will increase pressure on both Russia and...
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
The Davos Forum forced everyone to lay their cards on the table. It showed that European leaders are beginning to grasp the reality. But understanding is one thing—action is another. The answer to the challenge of Davos 2026 must be real action. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Trump, Putin, and the War for Europe’s Future
The very fact of U.S.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
This means that instead of seeking meaningless dialogue with Putin, pressure on Russia must be increased. It means not boasting about the absence of aid to Ukraine, but strengthening this assistance – particularly by reinforcing air defense. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
Putin’s “Cold Genocide”
This cold winter, almost every day Ukrainians expect new massive Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.
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Vitaly Portnikov @portnikov.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands. When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
The “Oreshnik” signal
The latest barbaric bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by the Russians—and in this case, the epithet "barbaric" is not a rhetorical exaggeration, as it involves attempts to deprive millions of...
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