pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 1hThe last bit of this extract is a classic. www.peterlilley.co.uk/kemi-badenoc... 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 6hGiven the Greens are doing their thing, isn't there a natural slide into that space available for the LDs? 210
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 05/10/2026He's either going to finance that (ie provide the money) in exchange for drawing income at a high enough rate given the risk, or he's going to finance something else and draw income from that instead. That is how capitalism works, and that's currently the system the world uses. 010
Reposted by @pompoustakes.bsky.socialAlex Partridge @alexpartridge87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026This is brilliant. Ever wondered where Core Group Negativr are now? How many of the Cabinet voted against triggering A50? Which Lib Dem MPs have Labour as their closest challenger? It’s all here! 12910
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Non-LLM amenable phenomena. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVLz...youtube.comNYU Proffesor Yann LeCun Explains What Comes After LLMsYouTube video by Perfology Clips 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026financing the existence of very definitely needed rental housing for millions of people *voluntarily* with *no obligation* to continue to do so. 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026introduced after a future general election, you would advise that only idiots would hang around holding rental property as an asset and to get on with selling. By the time you get eg a Green govt actually intending to do that, there would be hardly any private rentals left. Again,. these people are 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026As an advisor to owners of rental property you would obviously increasingly advise sale of the assets should there be a rise of confiscatory sentiment in British politics (that's what you're advocating). If it got to the point where there was even a realistic possibility of such policies being 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Like I said, there's a risk-free return of ~5.5% per annum available as the first thing on the long list of alternative uses of their money. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026that just provides rental properties and always will, having no other choices. That you can just tell them to continue doing so. These people need to do a thought experiment: imagining they are a financial adviser making recommendations to owners of rentals about what they should do with their money 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026So you either allow a market return on the provision of the necessary capital - and the riskier you make it for the owners the higher that return has to be - or it goes away, and the state has to provide it instead. There's weird belief in some parts of the left that landlords are a sort of caste 120
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Which is fine if you can get people to vote for that. But that involves the state finding the capital to employ in all those residences. The bond market won't lend it, because it know if the state houses all renters then rent gets bid down by politics & effectively the renters own those properties. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Most people who support that sort of thing haven't looked into it either. There's an instinct on the far left that hiring a place to stay is fine but hiring one out is evil. But someone has to be able to hire them out - so that has to be the state. So the state has to own all the 'for hire' housing. 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Sure everyone who can't afford to, doesn't want to, or needs to remain mobile will be delighted. Vote Green - they want to ban landlords. 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026...when the adverse consequences start getting noticed you and your supporters just tighten up the rent control regime - saying it was too lose, not properly enforced, had loopholes. That buys you another 2 or 3 years and out to the next election. And it sounds so obviously "right". 020
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026There is one key benefit of rent control you're missing. As a politician it gets you a big voting block and the damage to the rental market isn't visible immediately, it takes at least a year or two. You will gain fanatical supporters who will campaign to defend it for free on social media and ... 130
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026If you're prepared to provide the capital that needs to be tied up in all the rentals needed then you can control all the rents. If you need private capital tied up in it then you have to offer them prospective risk-adjusted returns competitive with all the other assets they could invest in instead. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026...and recently introduced stock that is incredibly expensive. Ireland's so far 10yr experiment was "a temporary measure". The changes introduced in March swapped limited removal of rent cap if a tenant moves out voluntarily for a significant transfer of property rights to tenant if it's re-let. 010
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026...market properties that were obviously needed were only viable if the initial rent was astronomical - to compensate for the lack of future growth. So there are a mix of 'bargain' trapped rentals passing by word of mouth... 120
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026It depends on the design of the rent control. Ireland's attached to the property once rented. So owners with rents set to anticipate future growth cot trapped with that converted into essentially an index-linked bond with tons of political risk. It also meant all the new to... 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026There is no obligation on the people who's capital is tied up in private sector rental stock to keep that capital there. They can invest in other things instead. The risk-free rate of return is now ~5.5%..... 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Yeah, I don't gey the unwillingness to consider this - it's as if the attitude is "but that would be cheating!" 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Is it particularly difficult to do what I suggested? Would it not make sense to build so houses are above likely flood line *if* you build in a flood plane. I mean, turning the daft snark round, maybe you make it sound like people buying houses in flood plains should have their houses flooded. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026 & who should pay for them? There are loads of aspects of resi construction & housing generally that need to be thought about with open minds. But that won't happen because it requires a lot of knowledge & most ppl discussing it either don't understand financing or how to put up a shelf, or both. 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026be that subsidy to private buyers of resi, or part state ownership become necessary. There is a structural educational problem - we've an over-supply of essay writers & a chronic constructions skills shortage. Are the higher standards reasonable to impose financially on the buyers - who demands them 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Try not to presume what other people think. There's a structural problem in that the costs of constructing to modern, increasingly stringent standards, is higher than the value of the work most people do to earn their money to pay for it. It's a value/earnings mismatch, not greedy developers. It may 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026This has been a bubble deflating. There are other bubbles. 001
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 04/10/2026You evidently have a problem with reading comprehension so there's little chance of you understanding the construction market. Frankly, I don't think you even want to - you just want to believe 'the rich' and 'developers' are the cause of the problem. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Yes, but the groundworks engineering either is or isn't suitable for constructing the houses. If it is, then they will be built. Adding 1m of additional rising wall is a fairly trivial additional load for the foundations and there are methods other than over-site fill & screed for the floors. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Look, it you want to try to understand the housing market, and the reasons why more developers are being advised to buy their annuities and just retire now versus a decade ago, do the work. Start by trying to distinguish between return on capital and profit. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Whenever you get a reply with crying laugher emojis you know you're not dealing with someone capable of objective thought on an issue. Profit margins are not what matters or there would be queues of ppl setting up as developers. Risk profile & risk adjusted return on capital are the deciders. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026It's just an engineering/groundworks decision for each site. eg the addnl load from 1 or 1.5m rising wall would be a first approximation & that's not much. You've got other options like pile & beam instead of just trenchfill & hardcore. Yes construction cost rises a bit, but they won't get flooded. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026be flooded, flog the houses, then when it is flooded 15 years later all the locals on higher ground who objected can feel a bit smug & insurance is an even bigger problem. But I'm not sure that's the most sensible approach. 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Yes, but given there's a shortage of houses, that plenty of the old housing stock, which people would like to buy but can't, is on hilly or uneven sites, you'd imagine that if we were being sensible about flood risk that engineering could be done. It's easier to pretend we don't think the site will 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Yes it does, but I'm curious about how they should do it *assuming they are going to*. 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Most of the insurance problem is usually water higher than the DPM. Plasterboard & wood getting wet... If you get a flooded housing estate but none of the houses are flood damaged most of the flood problem surely goes away. 200
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Why don't they design houses on flood planes to be elevated a few feet? To what extent is it a marketing decision - buyers might wonder why? 210
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026literally go bust. You can currently get 5% risk-free return on the world's safest asset. A decade ago it was ~1%. Risk will not be taken without a compensating return & this idea the people making buildings happen are just making too much money tells me reform won't work. There isn't realism. 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026"To say no one is making any money from the housing status quo is nonsense" Did you actually read that somewhere? Who made that claim? The money made is generally skilled labour or on an risk adjusted return basis. You don't see poor developers...when they're getting it right, but I've seen them 200
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Would there really be the same sort of sense of "europe" if M lP & the afd are running the 2 most important constituents, along with Britain being outside the EU tho? 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I don't think it's 'breadth versus market'. What measure of market 'breadth' do you prefer? Whatever measure you prefer to use it has to have something compared to something else, doesn't it? 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Not sure I follow, if you list all the % drawdowns from 52w high and pick the median you'd be getting a sort of measure of volatility. If you compare it to that of the index you'd get a measure of similarity of behaviour. They've essentially just plotted that compared to its mean. 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026There's no point talking about root and branch reform while most people who push for it believe the problem is essentially someone making too much money - just stop 'profiteering' (or some equivalent) and the problem is fixed. First requirement is to understand why prices need to be so high. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I don't think you've understood what I wrote. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026It is more expensive to 'build' (there are many components to that not done justice by the word) these days than available purchasing power, even given the latter is artificially boosted by Chinese investors. It's a new scenario. 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026of capital to build it at all. And you can't simply squeeze down land values because there are so many other costs, and if you did you'd mess up land-banking and c) make the industry even more risky - therefore requiring projected higher margins d) introduce big delays while loss-allocation happened 100
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The reasons they need the overseas buyers are to a) de-risk the project via pre-sales b) bid the prices high enough to allow the project to proceed If the risk/reward doesn't add up they won't do it and neither would you. 'Lowering prices to make it a mad investment' also makes it a bad investment 110
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Who'd have thought MBS was the type to want to draw a line in the sand? 000
pompoustakes.bsky.social @pompoustakes.bsky.social · 02/10/2026After a bit of traunching, presumably. 110
