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Patrick Murray

@pollsterpatrick.bsky.social
478 followers 54 following 55 posts

I am he as you are he, as you are me, and we are all together. stimsight.com

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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Anyone who did today’s Wordle will share my frustration at getting the last 4 letters right using an unorthodox opening word, and still needing 4 tries to complete.
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 17/03/2026
Happy St. Patrick's Day, New York.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"The United States was the only country surveyed where a majority had such negative views of their countrymen." www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/...
washingtonpost.com
Most Americans think their fellow citizens are bad people, survey says
A new Pew survey shows that other countries’ citizens tend to look more favorably on their neighbors.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Interesting #SOTU dial group. Trump gained a few points on most issues (expected temp. bump) but he went up a lot for his "Great Healthcare Plan" to divert money from insurers to people. Of course, this won't happen, but Democrats should be alert to power of this rhetoric.
One of the biggest improvements participants noted in the pre- and post-speech measurements was Trump’s handling of health care (from 18% confident to 41% confident). This is, in part, due to Republican lawmakers’ poor standing on health care. In a national survey Navigator conducted earlier this month, Democrats in Congress hold a 16-point advantage over their Republican counterparts when asked who respondents trust more on health care.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
The 5:16 pm outlook from the National Weather Service. That’s some wide range of uncertainty.
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Richard Kadrey @richardkadrey.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
2026 basically
A photo of an ice cream machine with a sign reading, "Anything is possible with ice cream." Beneath that is a hand lettered sign reading, "No ice cream".
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
This. ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
The arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor underscores a striking contrast between the United Kingdom and the United States in the official response to the Epstein files. British authorities have moved aggressively to investigate the possibility of crimes emerging from the three million pages of correspondence with Mr. Epstein. In the U.S., some business executives have resigned, but police have not take action like they have in Britain.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
To be clear, with all the national work Gallup does, this costs them practically nothing to track. Timing is suss
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
Your annual reminder that Muppets Christmas Carol is the only version that gives the correct line reading for “And to Tiny Tim - WHO DID NOT DIE …” youtu.be/4td8gPx-V2o?...
youtu.be
Tiny Tim who did NOT die
YouTube video by Brianna Lynch
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
What happened here is more akin to what actually happened to Laurens’ plan. Fell apart from others’ political weakness.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
These 7 Dem Senators remind me of Gen. Charles Lee at the Battle of Monmouth. They did not follow the battle plan and retreated when it got tough. Unfortunately, we lack a modern day Gen. Washington to sweep in, rally the troops and fix their screwup.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
I don’t know who came up with this, but it’s got my vote for today’s winner of the internet.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
All these New Yorkers coming up to say they voted for him. Well, yeah, with ranked choice, probably true.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Mamdani Did All the Things the Establishment Hates. He Won Anyway. newrepublic.com/article/1972... via @newrepublic.com
newrepublic.com
Mamdani Did All the Things the Establishment Hates. He Won Anyway.
There’s a growing appetite for something new and innovative growing among the electorate—and an opportunity for Democrats to grow that electorate, as well.
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Opinion | Some say that Andrew Cuomo's defeat in the primary shows that the Democratic establishment has become weak. But I say that the fact that an unpopular disgraced sixty-seven year-old sex offender was able to win 37% of the vote shows that the Democratic establishment is still very strong.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Little changed in New Jersey Dem governor primary from what I was seeing a few weeks ago. Just saying. #nj @MikieSherrill #poll www.insidernj.com/stimsight-re...
insidernj.com
StimSight Research Poll: Sherrill Holds Lead in Democratic Primary for Guv. - Insider NJ
A StimSight Research poll of likely voters in the 2025 Democratic primary for New Jersey governor finds that Mikie Sherrill.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
One of the most meaningful trips I’ve ever taken was to Normandy earlier this year. #dday Never forget.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Linked in the story. www.insidernj.com/stimsight-re...
insidernj.com
StimSight Research Poll: Sherrill Holds Lead in Democratic Primary for Guv. - Insider NJ
A StimSight Research poll of likely voters in the 2025 Democratic primary for New Jersey governor finds that Mikie Sherrill.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
binje.com/qa-patrick-m...
binje.com
Q&A: Patrick Murray offers his opinion ... on polling, career pivots and his new firm: StimSight Research - BINJE
When he was running the Monmouth Poll, Patrick Murray earned a reputation as a pollster who could more accurately predict the outcome of a political race — often because he was one of the few pollster...
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Kind of interesting that two governors who resigned that office under a cloud are currently considered the favorites to become the mayors of adjacent cities this year. newjerseyglobe.com/local/mcgree...
newjerseyglobe.com
McGreevey: "I have been a Democrat my entire life, and I will die a Democrat. My focus remains on delivering tangible results for families' - New Jersey Globe
OPINION I have spent my life fighting for a more just and equitable New Jersey, and that mission has never wavered, regardless of politics, donations, or
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
6 Men and 2 Babies.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Nice to see both my Alma maters (Lafayette and Rutgers) on board with this. www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
aacu.org
A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U
A Call for Constructive Engagement
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Trying to wrap my head around how Tammany Hall is now an upscale pet store.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
New Jersey Dem gubernatorial candidate Ras Baraka in New Brunswick touting his labor support.
Ras Baraka speaking on steps of house surrounded by union members and various signs
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
I gather the Trump tariff pause announcement came at 1:20 today.
Graph of today's Dow Jones average showing a 2,000 point spike at 1:20pm
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
For all those engaging in Liz Truss comparisons. Remember, she had to deal with a party leadership who ultimately were more afraid of the voters than they were of her. I see little evidence the same is true here.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
That’s an empirical question. Depends on who you mean by “right-wing” and how you define “doesn’t matter.” For the Trump politburo it doesn’t matter since their prime directive is to disrupt the world order. For GOP legislators who maintain the charade they are governing, yes that is insane.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
At the Cory Booker town hall. There is a well-orchestrated effort to disrupt with pro-Palestinian protestors yelling one at at a time, after the previous one was escorted out. Crowd not happy. Probably would be more effective if they tried to get the microphone.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Reggie Kray, do you know my name? Don’t say you don’t. Please say you do.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Two
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
The Wikipedia US Senate Filibuster page has been updated en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibus... @corybooker.com @booker.senate.gov
List of the longest US Senate filibusters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate#Longest_solo_filibusters
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
And we have a new leader. Cory Booker remarks on the irony of what was behind the record filibuster he just surpassed. If Strom had prevailed Booker likely wouldn’t be in the Senate.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
He's now #2. 45 minutes to go to bump Strom from the top spot.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Booker’s now taken the #3 slot.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Cruz is about to fall from the #4 position. @booker.senate.gov @corybooker.com
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Shot of @corybooker.com as he heads into hour 21.
Still image from Mr. Smith Goes to Washington of a disheveled Jimmy Stewart holding a book.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Meant to put “filibuster” in quotes since it is technically not.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
I was up to 2:30am watching both my US Senators in a filibuster. I shouldn’t have been surprised to wake to @booker.senate.gov still going 13 hours in.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
Biking today, stopped by a historic house I always wanted to visit. I knew of its Rev War and Prohibition history. But did not know about its connection to modern public opinion polling until I saw this plaque.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
I went to New Haven, played football there.
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The Onion @theonion.com · 05/03/2025
GOP Congressman Pleads To Be Reassigned To New District After Feelings Really Hurt At Town Hall
youtube.com
GOP Congressman Pleads To Be Reassigned To New District After Feelings Really Hurt At Town Hall
YouTube video by The Onion
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
Came across this Nazi gun battery in Brittany last week. They are all over the coast. A reminder of why you should never appease ultranationalist aggressors.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
. #njgov Dem debate about to get underway
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
The final edition of the section I may miss the most.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
From an Atlanta trip a few months ago.
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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
New York Rep. Pat Ryan, who easily held his Hudson Valley swing seat last month, spoke for AOC in the Dem conference meeting yesterday. Asked him what he said and he just sent me the speech - sharing in case it's interesting
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
While the %age D drop is similar in Red and Blue states, I think it might be qualitatively different. It's one thing when you feel there's little chance of success anywhere on the ballot (Red states), but there seems to be a good deal of Dem listlessness right on their home turf.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Trump made "organic" gains in Red states which hurt downballot Dems, but his inroads in Blue states were limited. There are pockets where he pulled in Biden voters (Hispanic, etc.) and that is consequential for Dems. But the bigger story is Dem dropoff in their base areas.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
In Battlegrounds, there was certainly a measurable Biden20-Trump24 shift, but there's also likely to have been high turnout among low propensity voters (which polls showed as key to Trump's chances). Will need to be confirmed by voter turnout validation in coming months.
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Patrick Murray @pollsterpatrick.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Update: With Blue state votes now nearly all tabulated, we have a better sense of the differential in Trump's gains and the Dem falloff from 2020. Nationally, Trump increased his raw vote by ~4%, while Harris lost ~8% off Biden's total. But there's a lot to drill down.
Chart showing Trump's vote gains from 2020 as +6.3% in battlegrounds, +3.5% in red states, and 1.5% in blue states. And also showing Harris's vote losses from Biden in 2020 as -0.3% in battlegrounds, -8.2% in red states, and -9.4% in blue states.
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