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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 4h

Manufacturers' New Orders for Durable Goods declined by -0.07% in Aug 2026; for Nondurable Goods new orders rose by 0.28% #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

Labor Force Flows: 6453K re-enter the labor force in Sep 2026, down -286K from prior month. 1398K unemployed exit the labor force in Sep 2026, down -123K from prior month #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

#Unemployment rate in Sep 2026 at 4.2%, up 0.1; participation rate (share of working age population in the labor force) at 61.8, up 0.2 from prior month #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

#Payroll Update: Comparing the current #Recovery of the #LaborMarket to previous recessions #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

Today's #WageData data reports average hourly earnings of $37.81. This represents an increase in average hourly earnings of 0.05 cents, relative to last month, and an increase of $1.11 or 3%, relative to the same month last year #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

Today's #Payroll data reports an increase in private sector employment of 29K jobs, #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5h

Will #tariffs be hurting truckers? Truck transportation all employees Sep 2026 at 1473.1K, up 2.6K from prior month. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 6h

The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.325 USD/GBP last week (25 September). Relative to a month ago, this is -2.3% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has fallen by -1.1% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 6h

Last week (25 September) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.14 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -1.7%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about -2.5% lower. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 22h

Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 7.28%, up 0.25 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 22h

The evolution of U.S. Federal Debt after recessions. The 3% trendline represents (approx.) U.S. trend GDP growth #debt #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 22h

In 2026 Q2 US Total Federal Debt stood at $39.5T, or 122.6% of GDP, up 0 p.p. from the last quarter #debt #gdp #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 22h

Total Construction spending for Aug 2026 came in at $2.2B. Relative to prior month, this is an increase by 0.9%. In Jul 2026, construction spending fell by-0.1% #construction #gdp #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 22h

Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 25 Sep #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Transportation indices are volatile, but can serve as leading indicator. In Jul 2026 the Passenger Transportation Services Index stood at 135.7; the Freight Transportation Index stood at 129.3 in Jul 2026 #econsky Details: rb.gy/ws6csr

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Truck Tonnage Index fell by -0.79% in Jul 2026. Trucking is a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing over 70% of tonnage carried (incl. manufactured and retail goods). The index is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Transportation Update: Rail Freight Intermodal Traffic. Intermodal refers to transportation of freight in an intermodal container or vehicle, using multiple modes of transportation (e.g., rail, ship, truck), without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Air Traffic coming back, Public Transportation not so much #econsky tinyurl.com/bdfwtvvj

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Longer-term view of Weekly Claims data. Relative to the peak during the pandemic, where the 4-week moving average of continued claims reached 21243K in the week of 16 May 2020, today's reading of 1723.75K continued is a decline of about -92% #claims #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Weekly Initial Claims (first-time applications for unemployment benefits), a proxy for layoffs, decrease to 197K (down -1K from prior week); 4-week moving average of continued claims decrease from 1742.2K to 1723.8K in Sep 2026 #claims #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

US #HouseholdDebt in Jan 2026 at 66.58%. This index measures the overall level of household #indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Commercial Real Estate Prices for United States (y/y) in 2026 Q1 at 6.58%, up 5.5 from prior quarter. Peak decline in Q4 2009 was -30.4% #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Bitcoin at $83482.51; Ethereum at $2682.34. Bitcoin is about 7.9% up from a month ago, and about -31% down from a year ago. Ethereum is about 11% up from a month ago and about -40% down from a year ago. #crypto #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Visualizing currency movements of key US trading partners since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 25 Sep #fx #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Uncertainty Update: VIX at 16.04; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 241.3, down -0.2 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#Auto Inventory-to-sales ratio at 1.242 in Aug 2026, up 0.06 from prior month. Historically, dealers typically hold over 2 months of #inventory. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Domestic Auto Inventory at 187.097K units in Aug 2026, up 6.5K units from prior month #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#Vehicle sales for Aug 2026 at 16.569M units, up 0.42M units from prior month #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in Sep 2026 came in at -0.55, up from -0.55 the prior month.Negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Headline PCE #inflation running at 3.36% y/y, up 0.06 p.p. from last month. #CPI inflation at 3.3%. FED target for PCE is 2%. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#Inflation Update: Comparing monthly U.S. inflation data against a long-term 2% price level trend #PriceLevelTargeting #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Today's #ADP data suggests an increase in private sector #employment of 5000K jobs, up from -2000K in Aug 2026. Note that historically the ADP report is not overly accurate in predicting the #payroll number. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Comparing The Economic Recovery Since the Outset of the Pandemic Across Major Industrialized Countries #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Comparing Recoveries Across All Major Components of U.S. #GDP #recovery #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Personal Savings Rate, relative to disposable income, in Aug 2026 at 4.1%, down from last month's 4.6%. Relative to a year ago, this is a decline of -1% percentage points #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Real disposable #income per capita in Aug 2026 at $53.674K, down from last month's $53.703K. Relative to a year ago, this is a 1% increase #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

US Real GDP (qq, annualized) for 2026 Q2 was revised to 2.2%. This release indicates that real GDP growth is down from last quarter's 2.5% #gdp #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

On 25 Sep the Nominal Emerging Market USD Index stood at 128.5556. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 1.6%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -2.24% lower. The index is weighted against a broad subset of emerging market currencies #exchangerates #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Advance Retail Sales: Visualizing the changing composition over time #retail #gdp #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Advance Retail Sales increase by 1.1% in Aug 2026, after decreasing by -0.5% in Jul 2026. Key components shown in the charts #USCensus #RetailTherapy #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

7-day weighted av. for Diesel currently at $6.38, down -14.7 cents from last week. Diesel engines in trucks, trains, boats, and barges transport nearly all products people consume. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a $2.63 increase. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

7-day weighted av. price for gas currently at $4.6, down -0.7 cents from last week. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a 135 cent increase. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The rate of job openings in Aug 2026 came in at 4.3%, down from 4.4% in Jul 2026. JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. #jolts #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The hire rate for Aug 2026 at 3.3%, up from 3.2% in the prior month. JOLTS defines Hires as all additions to the payroll during the month #jolts #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

JOLTS update: The quits rate for Aug 2026 came in at 1.9%, down by 0p.p. from prior month. Job quits measure voluntary separations by employees (retirements are reported as other separations) #jolts #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Today's JOLTS update suggest that 3.1M people quit their job in Aug 2026, down from 3.1in the prior month. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee, and can proxy willingness or ability to leave jobs. #JOLTS #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Banking and Finance Job Postings on Indeed in the United States at 105.6of the pre-pandemic baseline of 100% #econsky #indeed

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