Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 10hMeasuring the economy is an immensely difficult task, and that's why we see things like the BLS updating their Aug job number. It dropped from +162,000 to +133,000 after more data came in. Updates are a good thing and a sign the process is functioning normally. 172
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 04/10/2026"The market produced it" is just an economics equilibrium. Whether that outcome is acceptable is a judgment call we all get to make. 062
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Think of the economy as a pie. It gets split up between owners and workers. We're seeing owners are taking more slices than ever before. 024
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026A 2% raise sounds nice until inflation shows up with a 4% bill. Your paycheck got bigger. Your purchasing power got smaller. Sounds like a bargain for your boss 253
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Crypto, prediction markets, stock picking are all the same type of seduction. You can beat the market. You're smarter than the rest. But the hands-down best investment is a low cost, diversified index fund 052
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 28/09/2026If the market hands Sam Altman the whole pie and the rest of us get crumbs, don't accept "the market decided" . You're allowed to be mad about the equilibrium, and you're allowed to do something about it. 2105
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026One of the most popular questions on our YouTube videos has not been about economics. It is about Justin's Golden Pig. Here's the lore: 041
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 25/09/2026A "diesel export ban" can also mean "put the extra in storage tanks until the ban is over". Refineries are businesses, and they're going to keep selling to whoever pays the highest dollar. 041
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 24/09/2026A federal judge just granted CNN, MS NOW, and Politico access back into the White House. If you had any question about the value of TV news, consider this: Peru’s Fujimori regime bribed television owners 100 times more than it bribed judges. 160
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 23/09/2026We spend roughly $6 billion a year on airbags in the U.S. Not because we expect to crash every time we drive, but because small risks with enormous consequences are worth insuring against. AI safety deserves the same logic. 294
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 22/09/2026In September 2020, the federal SPM working group voted to add home internet to their measure. They found it to be an essential cost, which adds to the story that internet is an essential right. 0122
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 20/09/2026The Fed’s job is basically the seesaw of the economy. Keep people employed. Keep prices stable. The problem is that helping one can make the other worse. 251
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 19/09/2026We analyzed thousands of comments on our recent Canada-U.S. YouTube video. No surprises here. The U.S. basically broke up with Canada over text message. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/… (with the wonderful @svaneksmith.bsky.social) 12720
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 19/09/2026@svaneksmith has been out talking with folks about the economy. Since the pandemic, groceries are up 32%, gas 57%, energy 45%, and rent 33%. Even though wages are rising, a big part of economics is how people feel. youtu.be/hDhY8-Cc1jEyoutu.be 040
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 18/09/2026You might think economists make lousy actors. Unfortunately, monetary policy requires a bit of theater. A big part of the Fed’s job is convincing everyone that if inflation gets out of hand, it will raise rates enough to bring it back down. tinyurl.com/FOMC-raisetinyurl.comThe Fed’s Most Powerful Tool Is ExpectationsKevin Warsh is trying to set them. 041
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 17/09/2026During the pandemic, child poverty fell sharply after the child tax credit expansion. When the credit expired, child poverty snapped right back up. Giving people money works. More on that here: newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comWhat If We Just Gave Poor People Money?It’s more complicated than it sounds. Well, sort of. 031
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 17/09/2026We learned one thing about the new Fed chair today: he's willing to tell the White House "no". Now comes the harder question: how aggressive will he be on inflation? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comA Tale of Three KevinsThe Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023 answered the biggest question about its new chair — and raised a few more in the process. 071
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026GDP, jobs, and wages can look good. But plenty of people are still wondering when the good economy is supposed to show up for them. The US poverty numbers coming out today will tell us what actually happened last year 051
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Scott Bessent is trying to lower yields, but isn't treating the bond market like that 800 pound gorilla that it is. A $6B buyback that they announced on Wednesday needs to be more like $60B to move the needle. 043
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Canada's geography is a gift most countries would kill for: a long border with the largest, most prosperous economy in history (one with no expansionist goals). But Carney now sees diversification away from the US as central to Canada's economic future. tinyurl.com/tradeescalation 082
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Canada's consumer boycott may already be costing the US more than the actual tariffs. Not because of trade policy. Insulting your trading partners has a price. youtu.be/lsRhHpwZfOk 081
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 13/09/2026We want to remind everyone that the U.S. and Canada are still parties to a free trade agreement. About 85% of Canadian goods still enter the U.S. tariff free. But we know two siblings could fight about something as small as a pencil if they had to. tinyurl.com/tradeescalationtinyurl.comWhat’s Bigger Than a 50% Tariff?Answer: An infinity tariff. No, it doesn’t make more sense if you’re an economist. 050
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Why do bond prices fall when interest rates rise? Imagine you own an apple that pays you $5 a year. Then someone starts selling identical apples that pay $6. Your $5 apple is suddenly worth less. tinyurl.com/otc-9-12tinyurl.comIs It Still a Bond Market If I Don’t Use Jargon?And the betting markets say Handsome Kevin is raising rates anyway 183
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026New inflation data just landed, and it was hotter than hoped. Federal funds futures markets now put the odds of a rate hike at the next meeting at 86%, up from 72% last night. Don't trust our opinion. Trust the market's. 0103
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Trump threatened to raise tariffs on other countries unless the Fed cuts rates. Markets don't think it'll work. It may be turning monetary policy into a test of will. youtu.be/RtbNyCq5ZzU 072
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026A $5,000 government check isn’t automatically $5,000 of new wealth. If the government has to borrow the money, taxpayers ultimately inherit the debt. The key question isn’t “How big is the check?” It’s “Who pays for it, and when?” 0104
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Government can mail you $5,000. It can't make the country richer by borrowing that money in your name. You get a check, the government gets debt, and you are the government. 063
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026There’s a difference between saying “I’m worried about the integrity of future government statistics” and saying “I don’t trust any government statistics.” The first is vigilance. The second throws away the shared facts we need to know what’s actually happening. 020
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Can we still trust government data? Yes, for one reason: there's no evidence any numbers have been faked yet. But the rule change means that could stop being true tomorrow. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comThe Rules Changed. The Numbers Didn’t.And I’ll tell you the day that stops being true. 062
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026One underrated economic skill: knowing who produced the number. A statistic from an independent statistical agency is fundamentally different from a number presented by a politician or campaign. Source literacy is becoming economic literacy. 162
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Every insult is a policy choice. Calling Canadians clowns or floating "51st state" jokes doesn't help American workers. . youtu.be/4FIEVDfD2JE 0122
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Venezuela stopped publishing inflation data as prices spiraled. The crisis continued. Only the measurement disappeared. The Trump administration just rewrote the rules that once barred this here. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comThe Sentence That Used to Protect American Statistics"Protection from inappropriate influence is a hallmark of scientific integrity." That line governed the Census Bureau and then the White House quietly disappeared it. 043
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 09/09/2026The US-Canada Auto Pact of 1965 let car parts cross the border tax-free. The bet was one integrated auto industry beats two separate ones. It worked, for sixty years. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comA Deal With the United States Used to Be a DealThe tariffs Ottawa and Washington traded today are small change. What we're actually spending is Canada's belief that we're a country worth building a factory next to. 030
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 09/09/2026With good governance, CEOs spend their time on products and customers. Right now they spend it thinking about Trump. Look at Intel. Their CEO got threatened by the White House, and later sold them a 10% stake. youtu.be/6nTWZnoiM7s 061
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026When most Americans support Canada's retaliatory tariffs, something has gone very very wrong youtu.be/h8Fvnl0l7_8 033
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Historically the left wanted government intervention to tame markets and build a fairer, thicker safety net. Now the Trump administration is something different: intervention without a theory of why it makes things better. youtu.be/6nTWZnoiM7s 050
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Historically the left wanted government intervention to tame markets and build a fairer, thicker safety net. Now the Trump administration is something different: intervention without a theory of why it makes things better. youtu.be/6nTWZnoiM7s 031
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Venezuela's oil belongs to the Venezuelan people. We toppled their leader, installed a puppet with no elections, and that puppet just signed away billions in oil rights. Call it what it is: theft. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/… 094
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Jobs report beat expectations, yet everyone's running against this economy. Wage growth is down to 3.1%, the slowest in years. Prices are still winning. Unless you switch jobs, your raise likely isn't enough. youtu.be/h0LB9PEiZ3o 0103
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026The hardest problems are rarely concrete. Eventually the numbers run out, the abstractions take over, and you need a different language. Maybe that’s where poetry comes in. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comThe Day An Economist Became a Poetry CriticI tell my students not to lose their minds by asking what value is. And I don’t teach them poetry. Maybe I should. 051
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Consumer sentiment is lower right now than during wars, recessions, and a pandemic. The economy itself isn't the whole story here. A lot of this is people watching how economic policy actually gets made and losing faith in it. Hard to blame them. youtu.be/h0LB9PEiZ3o 041
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Winning a tariff game requires caring less about your own people’s pain than the other person cares about theirs. More on that here: newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comWhy Don’t We Put a Tariff on Ohio?Nobody in America is mad at Canada. So how did we end up in a trade war with them — and why can’t Mark Carney end it? 161
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Tariffs were once a Democratic, pro-union policy. Reagan's Republicans were the free trade party, and NAFTA was a hard sell for Clinton, not Bush. Somehow the parties completely swapped positions. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comWe Don’t Know That Tariffs Don’t WorkWe just know that incompetence fails. 051
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Much of the AI boom is being financed with debt. Goldman Sachs estimates roughly $500 billion of AI-related debt issuance in 2026 alone. That borrowing competes with everyone else for capital. platypuseconomics.substack.com/p/th…platypuseconomics.substack.comThree Borrowers Walk Into The Bond MarketThe AI build-out, the U.S. government, and our unpredictable financial future. 021
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2026If we were serious about these trade deals, we'd pass them like NAFTA. Till Congress acts, it's less "till death do us part" and more "let's hang out for a while." youtu.be/pO8b9CzyEdU 061
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 04/09/2026If lots of people are buying apples, the price of apples goes up. Same with loans. The AI buildout is billions in borrowing to build data centers. That extra demand for loans is one reason yields are rising everywhere. youtu.be/HprbhEwxuT0 041
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Health care added nearly a million jobs since January 2025. The rest of the economy actually shed jobs. That's an aging, wealthier country buying care, not a factory revival. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comWhere Are the Hard Hats in This Jobs Report?This administration promised a manufacturing revival. What we got is an aging country hiring nurses and aides—and outside of health care, the economy has shed jobs. 021
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Only 7% of jobs created in the second Trump term have gone to men. 93% to women. We've added nearly a million health care and social assistance jobs since Jan 2025, while the rest of the economy shed jobs. Watch more: youtu.be/lWU1FMHjYFU 0122
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 03/09/2026America's goods deficit with China fell $94 billion in 2025. Meanwhile the deficit with Southeast Asia rose about $100 billion. We didn't shrink the deficit. We just relabeled the boxes. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comDid Trump’s Tariffs Achieve Trump’s Goals?I didn’t grade the trade war against an economist’s ideal. I graded it against Trump’s own promises. 040
Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers @platypuseconomics.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Bond yields are up, but this isn’t a crisis. Think supply and demand. AI wants money, Washington wants money, militaries may want more money. When everyone wants to borrow, borrowing gets expensive. Simple economics. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…newsletter.platypuseconomics.comThree Borrowers Walk Into The Bond MarketThe AI build-out, the U.S. government, and our unpredictable financial future. 041