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Westpac/Melbourne Institute, though, finds some pullback in consumer sentiment to end 2024. Still, the rebound of late has been clear, with "current conditions" well up on last year, as is "time to buy" and expectations for family finances in a year's time.

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Manufacturers' expectations for profits, too, are bouncing back, with a net 19% of firms anticipating an increase over the coming year. That's back in line with the long-run average in a data set going back 36 years.

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The general business outlook for six months' time continues to rise too, with the first net-positive reading since the September quarter of 2022.

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Sheila Foster @sheilarose.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Year-end Westpac-ACCI's industry survey finds sentiment finely balanced among manufacturers who were optimistic or pessimistic to round out 2024. The 'Expected' outlook, though, picked up further and is now at its highest since September 2022.

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Reposted by Peter Hannam

Unfortunately, federalism works both ways. Cities and states can do a lot to rectify and fill in for federal government missteps and neglect of vulnerable populations. However, the opposite is also true. Cities can be preempted by their states (and states by federal government), tho not always.

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Reposted by Peter Hannam

Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 16/12/2024

The Coalition's climate policy plan would result in a cool extra gigatonne of GHGs out to 2050, from Australia's power sector alone. Great analysis by @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

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Peter Hannam @phannam.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Parts of western Melbourne topping 43.3C today, and tomorrow it'll be Sydney's turn to bake. Parts of western Sydney may reach 42C. (Via BoM)

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Peter Hannam @phannam.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

A host of inland regions are competing to be the hottest place in Australia - and probably the planet - today. Presently, this is the hottest station (according to BoM):

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Reposted by Peter Hannam

Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Choosing the "progressive change" scenario - with lower economic growth, and significant decline in large industrial loads - as your preferred version of the future is really quite a choice from the coalition...

Figure showing projected electricity consumption for large industrial loads under two different scenarios (from the ISP). The "Progressive Change" scenario (preferred by Coalition) has industrial demand significantly falling (basically halving) by 2030.

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Peter Hannam @phannam.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Meanwhile, Melbourne's forecast heat for early next week has eased back slightly, but 39C-41C expected across parts of the Victorian capital next Monday. (Via BoM)

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Peter Hannam @phannam.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Forecast heat in Sydney's west is one of the reasons for the expected tight power conditions early next week in NSW. (Via BoM.)

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Victoria, too, has a lack of reserve (level 2) forecast issued for Monday, which means that state probably won't have much spare power to export to NSW or elsewhere. Parts of Melbourne are predicted to hit 42C on that day, which explains why power supplies might be tight. (Via AEMO.)

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And with the prolonged heat will come some strains on the power grid. AEMO has a 'lack of reserve' level 3 alert for possible interrupted supply in NSW (unless the market responds, which it likely will) for periods on Monday afternoon and evening. (And LOR2s forecast for other periods.)

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The heatwave shift slightly to the north for Sunday-Tuesday, taking in Sydney and Brisbane. (Via BoM)

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The coming heatwave for eastern Australia will cover about half the nation. This is the Saturday-Monday chart. (Via BoM)

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Putting the crypt into crypto…

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RBA’s Andrew Hauser giving a bit of a history lesson…

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The February-April period, which bridges the end of summer and most of autumn, looks like having odds favouring relatively wet conditions for most of the country. Might be welcomed by fire agencies, farmers and energy authorities if it turns out that way. (Via BoM)

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The relatively dry conditions ease back a bit for the 22 Dec - 4 Jan period that takes in Christmas and the New Year - unless you're in Victoria or parts of northern NSW/ southern Queensland.

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BoM would rather have the public pay heed to their longer term forecasts (rather than the now-defunct "climate drivers"). hey tell us that the 2nd half of December 15-28/12 looks like being relatively dry across most of the east (and wetter than usual over the north-west, via a tropical low).

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Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, the negative phase of that basin's dipole is also ending. The phase typically lifts the odds for rainfall over much of Australia. (Via BoM)

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The recent 30-day trend is clearly away from La Nina-like conditions (Via Queensland Govt.)

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From this week, the Bureau of Meteorology stopped publishing their "climate drivers" page, although values for the Nino 3.4 region used for monitoring are still available. Chances of a standard La Nina continue to fade...

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Most of eastern Australia will bake in a heatwave from the weekend. (Via BoM)

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February rate cut looks a bit more likely…

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No Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on hold

(New from me): No Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on hold - but hopes for a cut improve www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

theguardian.com

Reserve Bank leaves cash rate at 4.35% for ninth consecutive meeting

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As we await the RBA's rates verdict (likely keeping the cash rate at 4.35% for a 9th meeting in a row), it's interesting inflation expectations have lately receded a lot. ANZ/Roy Morgan's weekly survey has noted a 0.5ppt drop in the past fortnight, with the gauge near its lowest since Aug 2021.

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Annoying words used by the Canberra press gallery and almost nobody else, ever: "swingeing"...

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