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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

As I wrote, the administration has selected the federal credit facility carrying the least mandatory transparency to underwrite the largest resource claim in the hemisphere, which puts the claim about taxpayer cost beyond anyone’s ability to scrutinize. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-oil-ve...

responsiblestatecraft.org

Trump plan to control Venezuelan oil has more holes than Swiss cheese

The Pentagon could find itself underwriting risky loans to put Caracas' petroleum infrastructure back on track

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Washington is once again betting on a strategy that failed more than six decades ago: using economic sanctions to force political change in Cuba. Yet, while attempting to isolate the regime, it also hinders reforms and pushes Havana toward China.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Bogotá's narrow result will be read in Washington as proof of a durable rightward alignment. The tougher story is how quickly Latin American voters discard whoever governs them and how little of that patience extends to a foreign patron who mistakes an election for an endorsement.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Here’s the problem with Graham Platner: Democrats looking for “authentic” non-politicians who curse & are “regular” people. Well, “regular” folks lead imperfect lives. I’m not excusing what he’s said or done. But know the thought of a “regular” beer drinking cursing guy is often better than reality.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

In #Texas: #Democrats nominated the one person that might actually be able to win a statewide race for US Senate. And #Republicans nominated the one person that might actually be able to lose a statewide race! We’ll see. Regardless, it’s going to be closer than it should be…It’s Texas!

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

I've been tracking the Trump Corollary's logic: how security partnerships and military posture serve as instruments of hemispheric control. The 2026 CT Strategy makes that logic explicit. My analysis @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/133705/shiel...

justsecurity.org

The Shield of the Americas Is the Trump Corollary’s Military Edge

The Trump administration's policies in Latin America create serious consequences for sovereignty and civil-military relations.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

The strategy designates "violent left-wing extremists," including groups described as "radically pro-transgender," as a formal CT threat category alongside cartels and jihadists. When political opposition gets written into a CT strategy, the targeting infrastructure follows.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

The Trump admin's 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy explicitly names the Trump Corollary "the blueprint for a modern Monroe Doctrine." The hemisphere is now the first CT priority, ahead of the Middle East. Washington has formalized its imperial playbook. justthenews.com/sites/defaul...

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

#Maine: is Graham Platner the Christine O’Donnell of 2026? 🤔

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Washington’s leverage in Venezuela is real, but it has been calibrated to ensure compliance with American priorities, not democratic change, Orlando J. Pérez (@perez1oj.bsky.social) writes.

worldpoliticsreview.com

Venezuela Is Consolidating Its Hybrid Regime | WPR

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez is fulfilling the Trump administration’s priorities. Democracy is an afterthought.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

#Hungary | Important to note the value of EU & NATO membership in mitigating Orbán's authoritarianism. Hungary's membership likely prevented Orbán from fully emulating Putin. It was also likely a consideration for why he conceded so quickly. International institutions matter!

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

This matters beyond #Hungary. Orbán was Putin's closest EU ally & model for MAGA's vision of governance. Combined with recent setbacks for populist right in #France, #Italy, and #Slovenia, the result suggests the illiberal project inside democratic systems has a ceiling when voters mobilize.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

#Hungary | The architect of Europe's "illiberal democracy" has been voted out, despite #Trump's support, JD Vance's visit to Budapest, and documented Russian interference. vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Please join us April 2 at 2 pm ET for a panel on US-VZ political, economic & security relations 90 days after the bombing of Caracas, hosted by my colleague Lee Schlenker, featuring @frrodriguezc.bsky.social Julia Buxton of Oxford Analytica and @perez1oj.bsky.social. quincyinst.org/events/what-...

quincyinst.org

What is the New Paradigm of US-Venezuela Relations Post-Maduro?

Join us for a conversation on the ongoing state of affairs in Venezuela.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

@justsecurity.org published my article: The Shield of the Americas Is the Trump Corollary’s Military Edge www.justsecurity.org/133705/shiel... "The Shield of the Americas rests on a core premise: that cartels are military problems requiring military solutions. This is a misdiagnosis."

justsecurity.org

The Shield of the Americas Is the Trump Corollary’s Military Edge

The Trump administration's policies in Latin America create serious consequences for sovereignty and civil-military relations.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Colleagues & I published article examining how Canada, Denmark, and Panama have adapted to Trump's transactional approach. While the US might gain short-term concessions, its actions risk long-term fragmentation of alliances. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... academia.edu/165185070/Ca...

tandfonline.com

Canada, Denmark/Greenland and Panama’s Response to the US’s Trumpian Moment

The second Trump administration’s aggressive transactional approach has pressured Canada, Denmark/Greenland and Panama. This has prompted each to adapt. Jean-François Bélanger, Thomas Crosbie, Matt...

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

These are the tangible results of #EpicFury and "Decapitate & Delegate."

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

My big takeaway from the invasion of Iraq—which I regret having supported—is that the US should go to war only when it has to. It should not engage in preventative wars against nebulous threats based on suspect intelligence and without a clear endgame. Yet here we go again. wapo.st/4seF5K1

wapo.st

Opinion | There is no reason to think this war with Iran is necessary

Trump criticized the Iraq War. Now he’s making the same mistakes.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

A president who undermines democracy at home cannot credibly promote it abroad.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

And there's no evidence, to date, that #Trump is even remotely capable or interested in doing so! In fact, the evidence so far is that he's perfectly happy to use US military power to create "stable, friendly & prosperous" authoritarian regimes!

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Killing, arresting, or targeting unpopular & unsavory leaders (as long as they're not named Putin or Xi, of course!) is easy & popular...building functioning democracies is the hard part.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

I guess he’s decided the Nobel Peace medal he got from Maria Corina Machado was good enough…🤷🏻‍♂️

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

I wonder if people who voted to end endless wars are enjoying their coffee today 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

"Sheinbaum will protect her domestic legitimacy. Trump will continue to maximize leverage. A durable partnership needs clear lines, clear accountability and public-facing goals that both governments can defend."

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

#Trump’s #BoardOfPeace isn’t a peace project. It’s a coalition of illiberal regimes. Using #freedomhouse (FIW 2025), only 3 of 26 members are Free; 10 are Partly Free; 13 are Not Free. Median score: 32/100. That’s not peacekeeping, it’s executive dealmaking with human rights optional.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

The problem is that spectacle can crowd out legality and accountability. When enforcement becomes a performance metric, due process looks like an obstacle and rights become conditional. Over time, that logic normalizes emergency rule, mass detention, and outsourced coercion.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

“Performative punitivism” is punishment as political theater: leaders stage harshness to signal control, win approval, and shift debate away from the hard work of governance. The point isn’t just deterrence. It’s optics—viral images, tough slogans, and a simplified story of “order restored.”

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

My latest, “In a post-Maduro Venezuela, the U.S. project amounts to managed authoritarianism: continuity government, calibrated repression, and transactional compliance, with transition reduced to timetable management rather than any democratization.” warontherocks.com/2026/01/afte...

warontherocks.com

After Maduro: Trump’s Managed Authoritarianism Trap in Venezuela

It’s early days, but the Trump administration’s approach to a post-President Nicolás Maduro Venezuela is quickly coming into focus. This is not externally

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

El hilo @elhilopodcast.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

“Es difícil ver cuándo y cómo llegamos a un gobierno legítimo electo democráticamente”, asegura el profesor @perez1oj.bsky.social de la Universidad del Norte de Texas. ¿Cuál es la situación actual de Venezuela? 🎧 Escucha aquí: elhilo.audio/279

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

El hilo @elhilopodcast.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

¿Es la captura de Nicolás Maduro el fin de un régimen o la continuación del chavismo sin su principal figura? Esta semana analizamos con @perez1oj.bsky.social, profesor de la Universidad del Norte de Texas, el ataque militar de Estados Unidos a Venezuela y sus implicaciones. 🎧 elhilo.audio/279

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

I argue, "U.S. messaging right now is going in the wrong direction. Talk of “running” Venezuela is politically toxic across Latin America and strategically counterproductive inside #Venezuela." www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

dallasnews.com

Maduro’s arrest will not deliver democracy unless Washington changes course

Nicolas Maduro’s arrest will not deliver democracy unless Washington changes course. A loyalist-led transition would leave Venezuela unstable and the U.S....

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Reposted by Orlando J. Pérez

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 03/01/2026

President Trump shocked the nation and the world early Saturday when he announced that the U.S. had captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and intended to “run the country.” Here’s what we know.

nyti.ms

What We Know About the U.S. Operation in Venezuela

U.S. forces carried out an audacious raid on the country’s capital, seizing President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump said the United States now intends to “run” Venezuela.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Few are going to cry about #Maduro, but the consequences for the region and broader geopolitics are huge.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

The actions in #Venezuela this morning are clear indications that the #Trump Corollary has made Latin Americans virtual spectators in the geopolitics of their region. The US is again exercising international “police” powers. The signal is clear: Latin America is “our backyard.”

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

I wrote for The Dallas Morning News: "Put together, the pardon and the interference tell #Hondurans something corrosive: What matters in Washington is not your rule of law, but your loyalty." www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Both Republicans & Democrats are working hard to lose the Texas Senate race. Paxton might be the only Republican who can lose the seat, but Crockett might be the only Democrat Paxton can beat! M.A.D! 🙄

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

2/ Migration is recast as an existential threat. The document declares “the era of mass migration is over” and elevates border control to the core of national security. That logic underpins deals that outsource detention, asylum processing, and enforcement to regional partners.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

1/ Democracy barely figures in the new National Security Strategy. The "#Trump Corollary" formalizes a sphere-of-influence order in the Americas, built on enforcement rather than institutions. What counts is coercive capacity and alignment. whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Is Trump about to go to war with #Venezuela? I told the @abcnewsaustralia.bsky.social "That gap between rhetoric and reality is where bad decisions get made." Listen to the rest 👇 podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/i...

podcasts.apple.com

Is Trump about to go to war with Venezuela?

Podcast Episode · ABC News Daily · 04/12/2025 · 16m

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

To understand why #Trump is pardoning @JuanOrlandoH, follow the $: “he turned to friends of Rubio for help … signed a deal with lobbying firm BGR Group to buttress his image as a dedicated ally and an implacable foe of organized crime.” www.vice.com/en/article/a...

vice.com

Alleged Narco President Hires GOP Lobbyists to Sing His Praises in Washington

Despite the mounting evidence against Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, Republican legislators have yet to drop their support for him.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

So Trump is getting “tough” on drug trafficking by pardoning a convicted drug trafficker, former president of #Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández. Pardon a right-wing trafficker & topple a left-wing one, seems to be the policy! 🙄😓

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

I write in @dallasmorningnews.bsky.social, “If Washington wants to help #Honduras avoid the fate of its authoritarian neighbors, it must act with clarity, consistency and restraint.” None of which the Trump adminitration is known for. www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

dallasnews.com

Honduras is not Venezuela — but Washington shouldn’t get this wrong

Honduras is a fragile democracy. A smart U.S. diplomacy is required as the presidential election approach

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

“For all the deadly weapons floating off the coast, it seems increasingly clear that all the Trump administration’s push for regime change in #Venezuela has done so far is create a potentially disastrous political trap.” www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | I’m in Venezuela. This Is the True Cost of Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy.

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Orlando J. Pérez @perez1oj.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Regime change in #Venezuela isn’t a “weekend mission.” Any use of force has to reckon with coup-proofed security services, regional politics, and the costs of “the day after,” not just #Maduro. I unpack the military & political realities, @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...

warontherocks.com

The Day After: What Successful Regime Change in Venezuela Would Really Take

What if the “counternarcotics” strikes against boats suspected of moving drugs aren’t really about cocaine at all, but about toppling Venezuelan President

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