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pepsiskateboard

@pepsiskateboard.bsky.social
10 followers 20 following 46 posts

pepsiskateboard

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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 03/11/2024
for me, it's her non-Euclidean office plant
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 31/10/2024
also using DiAngelo (of all people!) as an example of someone otherwise savvy is pretty funny
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 05/10/2024
citation needed – targeting only fascist victims for your scam doesn't make you a fascist, I mean, if anything it might be antifa lol
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 14/08/2024
yeah sounds like maybe you'd have a better time over at X.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 19/07/2024
In what way is it odd to express despair at racist bullying?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 19/07/2024
Nah, all too coherent. In fact, a depressingly familiar pattern: White women make the Black guy the scapegoat. If you think that's "incoherent" read more history.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 17/07/2024
In this specific instance of demanding a Black public intellectual quit his job because of what a white coworker, Pam*la Paul, wrote... yes, they are both in fact white lol. . But it's true, conveniently-colorblind sage, the subsequent dogpile was probably more diverse.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 16/07/2024
I hope I'm wrong though because a bunch of white women bullying a Black writer off this site really sucks.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 16/07/2024
I *think* it's supposed to be Jam*lle B*uie because he hasn't quit his job at the NYT because of what his coworkers write? I *think*? Or maybe D*ve We*gel for saying that he's sad that he's gone?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
If any of that were remotely true, then she wouldn't have underperformed every other statewide Dem candidate in 2022. She even managed to *widen* the race-turnout gap after being given millions in donations to close it! She's electoral kryptonite.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
2022 hon
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
... uh oh! This shouldn't have been published!
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
like, so far so good for their thesis...
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
Warning! Buried at the end of this paper is a gigantic limitation. They had an unrepresentative, differentally pro-Biden re-response rate in the post-debate polls. All this really shows is that pro-Biden debate viewers were more likely to click through their questionnaire. (Maybe in a cold panic.)
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
(rate of response post-debate)
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
Uhhhh they had a differentially higher response rate from pro-Biden participants and they just ignore that! This is from Northeastern!?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
uh, then why did she drastically underperform all those races?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
oh OK. I'll grant you that someone like Hillary would be a poor choice lol.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
After the primaries? Are you serious.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
You should rely on all available data and interpret it in context.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
no, it's not just name rec. and the degree of name rec as a factor in (real world) senate races is well studied (it's almost nonexistent)
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
My understanding is that a big problem with alt-universe H2H polls is that an unknown (but large) proportion of respondents misinterpret them as "Do you know who is actually running?" and they choose the candidate who is actually running.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Yes, but at least they measure a real race and a real electorate!
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
And I'm saying that your empirical data amounts to a hair-thin 40k margin in WI. Do you think that he will improve that margin, given that his approval is in the abyss, and that he is popularly perceived as senile?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
We don't have much info re: how accurate or useful post-primary alt-universe polls like that are, because it's so rare that candidates are ever switched. Much better to rely on state senate polls, which have a track record.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
I disagree. It directly confirmed the most potent and popular objection to Biden: That he's senile. He appeared senile last night.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
None of these concerns come remotely close to the risks posed by the status quo – staying with a functionally lobotomized Biden. People don't get much exposure to him speaking extemporaneously. Now they have. It's very bad!
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
By the slimmest of margins, sure. Are you really expecting him to do better this time around?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
I agree but it's better than nominating the lobotomy on stage last night
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Oh I'm sorry. Have a good one.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
I'm saying that you're ignoring the simple fact that step one has to happen first. It's natural for people to focus more on tasks at hand than future tasks. I think that's all that Krugman, Bruni, etc etc etc are doing right now, rather than purposely ignoring Harris.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Can you explain why?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
nah, we need to replace Biden with any other prominent Dem. They'll have weaknesses. They'll be divisive. They won't be Biden. After last night that's all that matters.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
no, we're just gently reintroducing the concept of sequential events
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
I think it's hard sometimes to remember that most GE voters don't know / don't care about most of the process. "Who ya gonna vote for?" is the only question, not "Why are these the choices?" People asking the latter question are already plugged-in and know the answer.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
It's a revealing choice. It reveals that the vast majority (>70%!) of general election voters simply don't care how their ballots came to be.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
The Ezra Klein response piece, right? Reading it again, I still can't find the part where you explain why it is practically impossible.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Why?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Why would it be outrageous? Most general election voters don't even vote in the primaries.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Looking forward to your column expounding this! Does not appear straightforward to me (a dumb guy) at all, nor to your colleagues (not as dumb)! Why is an open convention practically impossible?
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Nah, it just reflects the sequence of events that would stop a Trump presidency. Step 1: Convince Biden to step down. Step 2: Nominate someone at the convention. Those two things have to happen to stop Trump, but why focus on step 2 first? As we both say, there are plenty of real options for step 2.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
The worst debate performance in modern history is not the drop of a hat.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 28/06/2024
Whitmer, Raimondo, Brown, Harris, etc. Many good choices with a far greater chance of beating Trump. Just look at the polls of D Sen races vs. Biden's numbers. A staggering gap.
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 17/04/2024
Not necessarily a dunk! It sounds like most of this polycule's atoms would've been miserable in a diatomic bond. I'm glad they found each other (and not me).
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pepsiskateboard @pepsiskateboard.bsky.social · 13/03/2024
she is channeling the statue, successfully
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