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Daniel Serwer

@peacefare.bsky.social
205 followers 124 following 395 posts

Prof Johns Hopkins SAIS, former VP @USIP and MinCounselor @StateDepartment. Blogging multiple international conflicts @ www.peacefare.net

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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
It’s not just the verdict that is unjust This is one more lesson in why you shouldn't be too friendly to Washington and Brussels.
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It’s not just the verdict that is unjust
This is one more lesson in why you shouldn't be too friendly to Washington and Brussels.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Kosovo should get on with governing I hope the votes can somehow be found to make Sejdiu president, not because of who he is but because it is high time to get back to the serious business of governing. 
peacefare.net
Kosovo should get on with governing
I hope the votes can somehow be found to make Sejdiu president, not because of who he is but because it is high time to get back to the serious business of governing. 
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Rehabilitation of Mladic is rehabilitation of Vucic Miloš Ćirić, a political scientist in Belgrade, writes in Danas, Sept. 12-13, 2026: Serbia buried the war criminal Ratko Mladic with a ceremonial unit, an honor guard, a rifle volley and eulogies. Patriarch Porfirije led the funeral service. In…
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Rehabilitation of Mladic is rehabilitation of Vucic
Miloš Ćirić, a political scientist in Belgrade, writes in Danas, Sept. 12-13, 2026: Serbia buried the war criminal Ratko Mladic with a ceremonial unit, an honor guard, a rifle volley and eulogies. Patriarch Porfirije led the funeral service. In attendance were Serbia's ministers of defense, justice, culture and labor; the son of President Aleksandar Vucic and his friends; Milorad Dodik; the Russian ambassador; and, by some accounts, more than 15,000 people.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The bright spot is visible but not certain So what's the bright spot? I hope the election. Americans on November 3 have an opportunity to send most of the Trump sycophants in Congress home. I hope they do.
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The bright spot is visible but not certain
So what's the bright spot? I hope the election. Americans on November 3 have an opportunity to send most of the Trump sycophants in Congress home. I hope they do.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Death of a Convicted War Criminal, Survival of an Ideology A war criminal can die, while the ideology that made him a hero survives. That is the real challenge Serbia continues to face.
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The Death of a Convicted War Criminal, Survival of an Ideology
A war criminal can die, while the ideology that made him a hero survives. That is the real challenge Serbia continues to face.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Montenegro, a War Criminal, and European Integration We are witnessing a new variation on Milan Kundera’s famous *The Joke*: “Optimism is opium for the people.”
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Montenegro, a War Criminal, and European Integration
We are witnessing a new variation on Milan Kundera’s famous *The Joke*: “Optimism is opium for the people.”
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Time to fish and cut bait in Kosovo It is high time to get on with the serious business of governing, which includes an important role for the opposition. It's time to fish and cut bait.
peacefare.net
Time to fish and cut bait in Kosovo
It is high time to get on with the serious business of governing, which includes an important role for the opposition. It's time to fish and cut bait.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Improve border crossings to help cross invisible boundaries Belgrade talks the talk, takes the EU money, and does nearly nothing. It is time to insist that the borders in the Western Balkans open up.
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Improve border crossings to help cross invisible boundaries
Belgrade talks the talk, takes the EU money, and does nearly nothing. It is time to insist that the borders in the Western Balkans open up.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Time to withdraw US bases in the Gulf Allowing the powers that be in the region to reach their own equilibrium, with US backing for its friends in the background, is worth a try.
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Time to withdraw US bases in the Gulf
Allowing the powers that be in the region to reach their own equilibrium, with US backing for its friends in the background, is worth a try.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Trump is up the Gulf without a paddle I expect Trump to continue promising an agreement while Iran and Oman reach an agreement on tolls in the strait of Hormuz.
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Trump is up the Gulf without a paddle
I expect Trump to continue promising an agreement while Iran and Oman reach an agreement on tolls in the strait of Hormuz.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Ending two wars as best we can The Ukraine and Iran war have damage US standing. Rebuilding the US military and diplomacy will take time and money. The sooner it starts, the better.
peacefare.net
Ending two wars as best we can
The Ukraine and Iran war have damage US standing. Rebuilding the US military and diplomacy will take time and money. The sooner it starts, the better.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Where we are at with Iran Negotiation will save lives and money. But the agenda will have to be the terms of tolling. That is a big loss for the US, but it's where we are at.
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Where we are at with Iran
Negotiation will save lives and money. But the agenda will have to be the terms of tolling. That is a big loss for the US, but it's where we are at.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
More pain and little gain For now, Donald and Mojtaba seem content to batter each other. Only more pain and little gain will convince them otherwise.
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More pain and little gain
For now, Donald and Mojtaba seem content to batter each other. Only more pain and little gain will convince them otherwise.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
On the agenda and off for US-Serbia President Vucic is getting a boost. Transactions are on the agenda. Democracy, rule of law, corruption, Kosovo, and Europe are off.
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On the agenda and off for US-Serbia
President Vucic is getting a boost. Transactions are on the agenda. Democracy, rule of law, corruption, Kosovo, and Europe are off.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
It’s an old game. They’ll play it again The US will try to get Serbia aligned with US objectives. Serbia will offer half a loaf. It's an old game. They'll play it again....
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It’s an old game. They’ll play it again
The US will try to get Serbia aligned with US objectives. Serbia will offer half a loaf. It's an old game. They'll play it again.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
How to fix what ails America If even a handful of retiring Republicans announce that they will caucus with the Democrats, the majority in both Houses would shift....
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How to fix what ails America
If even a handful of retiring Republicans announce that they will caucus with the Democrats, the majority in both Houses would shift.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Trump and Putin have the same problem www.youtube.com/shorts/falyMPe8ZZM Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have both launched wars of aggression, the former against Ukraine and the latter, with Israel, against Iran....
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Trump and Putin have the same problem
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have both launched wars of aggression, the former against Ukraine and the latter, with Israel, against Iran. Unable to win and unable to negotiate an exit each deems worth his while, both are stuck. They are choosing to double down to justify their sunk costs. Why is this happening to two countries whose military power far exceeds that of their adversaries?
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Improved, but not as good as could be With NATO and EU membership, Kosovo won't care much about UN membership, which can't happen until Russia and Serbia enjoy a democratic resurgence hard to picture today....
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Improved, but not as good as could be
With NATO and EU membership, Kosovo won't care much about UN membership, which can't happen until Russia and Serbia enjoy a democratic resurgence hard to picture today.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
It’s an ailing America, and it won’t recover soon No, America is no longer the America Europeans, including Kosovars, want it to be. And it won't recover soon....
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It’s an ailing America, and it won’t recover soon
No, America is no longer the America Europeans, including Kosovars, want it to be. And it won't recover soon.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
It’s good that a bad war is ending badly The protests and upheaval the Israelis and Trump hoped would happen during the war are much more likely in its aftermath....
peacefare.net
It’s good that a bad war is ending badly
The protests and upheaval the Israelis and Trump hoped would happen during the war are much more likely in its aftermath.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Sharing the future to avoid conflict People in the Balkans and elsewhere are entitled to their own memories of the past. But to avoid conflict they need to share the future.
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Sharing the future to avoid conflict
People in the Balkans and elsewhere are entitled to their own memories of the past. But to avoid conflict they need to share the future.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
A sharp break in Western Balkans policy The State Department report to Congress on "United States Policy to Promote Regional Stability and Prosperity in the Western Balkans" merits analysis and comment....
peacefare.net
A sharp break in Western Balkans policy
The State Department report to Congress on "United States Policy to Promote Regional Stability and Prosperity in the Western Balkans" merits analysis and comment. Like most official statements, it is as important for what it doesn't say as what it does say. And it important for the who as well as the what. For the uninitiated, "Western Balkans" refers to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
The best available alternative is the EU Accession of Montenegro and Albania would help the EU stake its claim to leadership of the liberal democratic world. That's the best alternative to the US....
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The best available alternative is the EU
Accession of Montenegro and Albania would help the EU stake its claim to leadership of the liberal democratic world. That's the best alternative to the US.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Montenegro in the final lap I am going to repeat that hope that Montenegro will be an EU member in four years, which requires that you be fully qualified in two.
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Montenegro in the final lap
I am going to repeat that hope that Montenegro will be an EU member in four years, which requires that you be fully qualified in two.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Trump is making America weak again Trump touted the Beijing meetings as maybe "the biggest summit ever." That's his usual hyperbole. It was a bust, and he knows it.
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Trump is making America weak again
Trump touted the Beijing meetings as maybe "the biggest summit ever." That's his usual hyperbole. It was a bust, and he knows it.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Trump is losing two wars, one is in Iran This clip reveals two things about Trump. He has downgraded his goals for the Iran war. And he really doesn't care about ordinary Americans.
peacefare.net
Trump is losing two wars, one is in Iran
This clip reveals two things about Trump. He has downgraded his goals for the Iran war. And he really doesn't care about ordinary Americans.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
International mistakes in Bosnia and Kosovo The international community, as it used to be called, could be generous. It also makes mistakes. Bosnia and Kosovo are prime examples of both.
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International mistakes in Bosnia and Kosovo
The international community, as it used to be called, could be generous. It also makes mistakes. Bosnia and Kosovo are prime examples of both.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Tolls at the strait of Hormuz? This is not rocket science. If the Americans want to prevent tolling, they need to settle with Tehran soon. That will hurt but is better than the alternative.
peacefare.net
Tolls at the strait of Hormuz?
This is not rocket science. If the Americans want to prevent tolling, they need to settle with Tehran soon. That will hurt but is better than the alternative.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Stuck in a long war with nowhere to hide The November election is six months off. In the meanwhile, prices will remain elevated. From that, there is nowhere to hide.
peacefare.net
Stuck in a long war with nowhere to hide
The November election is six months off. In the meanwhile, prices will remain elevated. From that, there is nowhere to hide.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
De-escalation is the way to go President Trump is stuck in a war he should never have even thought about starting. The prospects for getting out of it are dim.
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De-escalation is the way to go
President Trump is stuck in a war he should never have even thought about starting. The prospects for getting out of it are dim.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Getting rid of what works, and what doesn’t The regime was arguably on its last legs when the Israelis and Americans attacked. It might not survive an end to tension with the West.
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Getting rid of what works, and what doesn’t
The regime was arguably on its last legs when the Israelis and Americans attacked. It might not survive an end to tension with the West.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Intersections, not convergence The best way to generate international norms for technology is in what we call in international relations an epistemic group of global experts.
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Intersections, not convergence
The best way to generate international norms for technology is in what we call in international relations an epistemic group of global experts.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Statehood and language Albanian as an official language is a right, a reflection of the state’s multiethnic character, and a necessity for a just and sustainable constitutional order.
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Statehood and language
Albanian as an official language is a right, a reflection of the state’s multiethnic character, and a necessity for a just and sustainable constitutional order.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Iran lost militarily but won strategically The war is ending with the strait of Hormuz in Iranian control. The US and the Gulf lost. Iran lost militarily but won strategically.
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Iran lost militarily but won strategically
The war is ending with the strait of Hormuz in Iranian control. The US and the Gulf lost. Iran lost militarily but won strategically.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Trump is desperate, the Iranians are winning Trump is now desperate to end the war before it causes more damage to the world economy. He can't credibly claim victory if Iran owns the strait.
peacefare.net
Trump is desperate, the Iranians are winning
Trump is now desperate to end the war before it causes more damage to the world economy. He can't credibly claim victory if Iran owns the strait.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Iran holds the Trump cards America is not better off now than before the war. Trump should have ducked out by now. He is stuck in a war without an upside for the United States.
peacefare.net
Iran holds the Trump cards
America is not better off now than before the war. Trump should have ducked out by now. He is stuck in a war without an upside for the United States.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Trump has disempowered America Surrender of the strait to Iran and retreat from the Middle East will weaken the US. So too will failure to support Ukraine.
peacefare.net
Trump has disempowered America
Surrender of the strait to Iran and retreat from the Middle East will weaken the US. So too will failure to support Ukraine.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The Iranians can get what they want The Iranians will try to impose unilaterally a permanent toll on passage through the strait of Hormuz. It is going to be hard to stop them.
peacefare.net
The Iranians can get what they want
The Iranians will try to impose unilaterally a permanent toll on passage through the strait of Hormuz. It is going to be hard to stop them.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Trump has lost Netanyahu’s war Trump is in peril of losing all but his most loyal voters. No wonder he is trying not only to end the war but also to make voting harder.
peacefare.net
Trump has lost Netanyahu’s war
Trump is in peril of losing all but his most loyal voters. No wonder he is trying not only to end the war but also to make voting harder.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Trump has already lost his Iran war Trump is stuck in a war of his own making. But it is the rest of us worldwide who will pay for his mistake.
peacefare.net
Trump has already lost his Iran war
Trump is stuck in a war of his own making. But it is the rest of us worldwide who will pay for his mistake.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Trump has driven America into a dead end Trump wants to pull the plug. The Israelis don't. And the Iranians are demanding outcomes that neither Israel nor the US can concede.
peacefare.net
Trump has driven America into a dead end
Trump wants to pull the plug. The Israelis don't. And the Iranians are demanding outcomes that neither Israel nor the US can concede.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Trump wants to pull the plug A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we'll still be at war.
peacefare.net
Trump wants to pull the plug
A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we'll still be at war.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Ending the Iran war well won’t be easy The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This war was a giant wager. There is a lot to lose on both sides.
peacefare.net
Ending the Iran war well won’t be easy
The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This war was a giant wager. There is a lot to lose on both sides.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Do the Balkans really want EU membership? When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.
peacefare.net
Do the Balkans really want EU membership?
When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Lots of things can still go wrong Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into the future. There are lots of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
peacefare.net
Lots of things can still go wrong
Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into the future. There are lots of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
It’s about regime change, no doubt The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters. We are going to miss it when it is gone.
peacefare.net
It’s about regime change, no doubt
The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters. We are going to miss it when it is gone.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
A pattern of quiet ethnic cleansing Recognizing and addressing discrimination against Albanians in Serbia is essential not only for Albanians, but for democratic principles across the region.
peacefare.net
A pattern of quiet ethnic cleansing
Recognizing and addressing discrimination against Albanians in Serbia is essential not only for Albanians, but for democratic principles across the region.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Trump chooses regime change by aggression Regime change in Iran is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power as a result of this war of choice.
peacefare.net
Trump chooses regime change by aggression
Regime change in Iran is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power as a result of this war of choice.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Failure is no only an option Trump's peacemaking week is looking like a bust. The Ukraine war isn't ending, Gaza isn't getting reconstructed, and so far there is no deal with Iran.
peacefare.net
Failure is no only an option
Trump's peacemaking week is looking like a bust. The Ukraine war isn't ending, Gaza isn't getting reconstructed, and so far there is no deal with Iran.
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Daniel Serwer @peacefare.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
When will the war in Ukraine end? SAIS scholars will try to answer:
peacefare.net
When will the war in Ukraine end?
SAIS scholars will try to answer:
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