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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

My weather-tech company in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, @Praedictix, is looking for the right sales and account manager. If you or someone you know is interested email: jobs@praedictix.com praedictix.com/contact-prae...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

100F yesterday in Hallock, Minnesota. Highs near 90F into Wednesday but models show a cooler, wetter pattern returns by late week. 15-day total rainfall predictions are impressive. In the meantime high risk of wildfires into midweek with Red Flag Warning for most of the state. More crazy swings

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Taste of summer on the way by early May... Monday still looks like a severe T-storm day A real spring this year. Imagine that

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

First potential (widespread) severe T-storm outbreak possible Monday of next week. That's still pretty far out and confidence level is low to moderate, but surges of 70s may leave the atmosphere irritable and capable of some atmospheric rocking and rolling.

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Who cares about draconian cuts underway at NOAA? If you're a member of the weather community you should worry about cuts to NWS staffing, data integrity and research into severe weather. The public should wonder if they'll get timely warnings for their hometown. Here's why: nwas.org/stand-up-for...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Under .5" rain for most of the MSP metro yesterday with 1-2" amounts for much of southern Minnesota. ECMWF predicts 2"+ between now and the end of April. Still looks like we are transitioning into a wetter pattern. CoCoRaHS rainfall: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

A rock 'n roll afternoon and evening is shaping up with a significant severe T-storm threat, especially MSP to the Iowa border. Main threat is large hail, but an isolated tornado and 1-3" rains possible with this squall line. HRRR loop from noon to 7pm. Take it easy out there

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

No snow, but plenty of rain on the way. ECMWF (European model) prints out 2" rains for much of Minnesota over the next 15 days. Coming at a good time for spring planting. Persistent drought appears to be slowly fading.

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

At least 13 radiosonde (weather balloon) sites reducing or eliminating daily launches due to staffing cuts at local NWS offices. Weather balloon data is the second most important source of weather model "fuel" (behind satellite data). Accuracy will suffer. What can possibly go wrong

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Waking up to 1-3" across the metro, a little more north/west of MSP. Just light rain today at MSP but a few more slushy inches for central MN. Near 60F by the end of next week. This too shall pass... Latest snowfall amounts here: maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Not an April Fool's joke: wet snow later today and tonight, maybe 1-3" metro, with (very) plowable amounts over much of MN. Changeover to rain at MSP Wednesday will keep snowfall amounts down in the Twin Cities. A few 60s next week? Prince was right: sometimes it snows in April

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

No cause for panic, but a cruel April Fool's joke is brewing, maybe an inch or 2 of slush for the metro area tonight (it'll melt) with plowable amounts north of MSP. ECMWF shows fairly consistent 50s by the second week of April. Spring in Minnesota is more theory than fact

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 23/03/2025

Not in the habit of recommending TV shows but watch this on Netflix. Amazing footage. The 2011 EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin, MO was an EF-5; 1-2 miles wide. It claimed 181 lives. Another reminder of how critical the local National Weather Service meteorologists who issue warnings are

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

ECMWF (European model) is far from perfect, but it often picks up on trends before other models. MSP metro will get brushed by slush Wednesday with heavier amounts south. Not exactly Snowmageddon Warm signal continues for late March with more 60s. Early spring? Hey, a guy can dream...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

30% threat of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of any point from Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL. Very concerned about large, violent long-track tornadoes later today. While 3-8" snow falls from Willmar to Park Rapids and Wadena. Cooler outlook but nothing polar. After record 75F Friday at MSP

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

Today's record high at MSP is 73F in 2012. Pretty sure we'll break that. Temps more typical of late May. Strong T-storms arrive this evening, a few packing hail and high winds. On backside of the storm a few inches of slush Hutchinson to Brainerd Lakes Saturday PM Crowded House: 4 seasons in 1 day

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Powerful storm arriving Friday/Saturday with temperatures aloft warm enough for mostly rain MSP metro, but potentially plowable snow western counties. Slight severe T-storm risk Friday; ECMWF more aggressive than GFS with warm fronts in coming weeks but spring is sure trying!

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Meteorological spring is here! Old Man Winter: hold my beer. Rain changes to snow this evening, with 4-8" possible before snow tapers midday Wednesday; maybe 10" of snow in a few spots. Winter Storm Warnings with Blizzard Warnings south of MSP. Wednesday travel will be a mess

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

50s today, rain tomorrow changes over to wet snow Tuesday night, with snow continuing through midday Wednesday. Should be plowable, especially south/east of MSP, where a Winter Storm Watch is posted Snow + winds gusting over 40 mph Wednesday AM should make for a fun commute 👍

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

The US experiences more severe weather than any nation on Earth. NOAA has been up to the task (death tolls have been falling due to timely warnings and collaboration with local meteorologists). Firing 800-1000 experts from NOAA is a huge step backwards. This isn't efficiency. It's insanity. FAFO

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

"Muddy Vortex" shaping up with light rain later today into Wednesday and milder than average temperatures into at least mid-March. At least the metro may have seen the last subzero lows of winter. Both GFS and ECMWF show a 60-degree spike in 2 weeks. Early spring anyone?

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

A week ago today the metro high was -2F with windchills in the -30s. Today: low 50s, typical for early April. It will feel about 85-90 degrees warmer than it did a week ago #muddyvortex

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Factoring wind chill: next week should feel 70-80F degrees warmer than it does out there right now. 50F in southern Minnesota is not out of the question. Absolutely insane temperature extremes 😳

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

1-3" powder from this afternoon into early Saturday. No big deal. Followed by a 4-day slow dance with the Polar Vortex: Monday and Tuesday the coldest days in Minnesota. All models bring milder, Pacific air back into town last week of February with 30s, shot at 40+ This too shall pass 💔

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

GFS and other models consistent with a late-month thaw. Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Blizzard Warnings for parts of Louisiana with half a foot predicted for NOLA and 3-4" into the Florida Panhandle. This will be an historic snowfall for the Gulf Coast. There are no plows - they will pretty much wait for the snow to melt (which happens later this week)

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

Today is the coldest day for Minnesota with average temperatures returning by midweek. Dry, Siberian air has shoved the storm track along the Gulf Coast, and 2-5"+ of snow may shut down Houston and New Orleans on Tuesday with a couple inches of snow/ice into the FL Panhandle #weatherwhiplash

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

All this cold air is pushing the storm track WAY south. The Gulf Coast will see a rare snowstorm late Monday into Wednesday morning, maybe 3-6" snow for Houston and New Orleans with 2-4" snow/ice for Florida Panhandle and 2-5" Savannah and Myrtle Beach. It'll melt, but wow 😳

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Longest stretch of subzero weather since December 2022 (62 hours at MSP) is shaping up with windchills of -35F Sunday and Monday. Pipe-rupturing cold? Gulf coast may see accumulating snow by Tuesday 😳 Consider cheking in on friends/family living alone to make sure their homes are staying warm

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

"Nothing between Minnesota and the North Pole but a barbed wire fence" 60-70 consecutive hours below 0F from late Saturday into midday Tuesday, windchills dip to -25 to -35F Significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia A few days of pain, then moderating temps next week

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

It's not cheap hype: the bitter air arriving Sunday through Tuesday originated over Siberia. Expect subzero highs Sunday and Monday with -20 to -30F windchills, but this jolt of population-thinning air won't last long. This will probably be the coldest air of the winter.

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

ECMWF ensembles hint at a snowier pattern in February. Low confidence but snow-lovers shouldn't give up just yet. Coldest air of winter arrives Sunday/Monday (Polar Vortex-ish) but subzero weather won't last long Meanwhile another PDS Red Flag Warning for LA fire risk today

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

NOAA calling the scenario in the LA area a "potentially life-threatening and destructive wind storm" as Santa Ana winds gust to 80 mph later today into Wednesday. While Dallas-Fort Worth braces for as much as 10-12" snow While most Minnesotans cheer on 20s by Thursday 😃

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Attention MN Chamber of Commerce: 2014 was a polar vortex winter with 50 subzero lows at MSP. That was the exception, not the rule, which is fewer subzero nights over the last 45 years @Praedictix ran a few regression analyses from 1980 to 2024 MSP: 11 fewer subzero nights since 1980 (27 to 16)

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

2024 was the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Duluth Fun fact: 14 of the warmest years on record since 1871 at MSP have been observed since 2000 No idea what could be causing that

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Canada will leave the freezer door open into next week but as a Minnesotan I guess I have a different definition of "Polar Vortex"

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

Lingering autumn warmth is pushing deeper into December with more frequent rain/ice events and a big increase in mean hours above 32F. MSP has gone from roughly 90 hours above 32F in 1980 to closer to 210 hours above 32F in 2023. We are seeing more frequent thaws. mrcc.purdue.edu/CLIMATE/

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

December is Minnesota's fastest-warming month. MSP temperatures have risen 7-8F since 1980, closer to a 10F rise over northern Minnesota. Still cold enough for snow for most storms, but "usable snow" doesn't stick around as long. Don't believe me? Ask anyone with a snowmobile

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Hours of fun - highly recommended!

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 25/12/2024

Merry Christmas! Predicting a variety of colorful weather in ‘25. Most of it bad

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Heaviest snow falls this morning, slowly tapering afternoon and tonight. Still looks like 4-7" with up to 8" in a few spots. Very slow travel today but ideal snow conditions into the weekend before an extended thaw arrives. We should hang on to enough snow for a white Christmas 🧑‍🎄

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

It may be time to call out the Minnesota National Guard. Winter Storm Warning includes metro area Band of 3-6" with 7" amounts near the I-94 corridor Please take the subway or walk to work tomorrow

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Still looks plowable tomorrow with heaviest amounts setting up north metro and I-94 corridor. Thinking 2-6" with 1-2" far south metro. Enough to shovel and plow, but if you like snow play in it this weekend, because models suggest a 7-9 day thaw between Christmas and New Year's Day

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Big thaw coming after Christmas, but we may pick up enough snow from a super-sized clipper on Thursday (2-5") to have a white(ish) Christmas from the Twin Cities on north. 40s increasingly likely last week of December. If you like snow get outside this weekend

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Shocking/breaking news: it may snow a few inches here on Thursday. Maybe enough to shovel? It's still early but ECMWF hints at 2-4". Whatever falls may melt quickly with a pretty big thaw Christmas week. I miss the 70s/80s when a white Christmas was pretty much a sure thing...

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Best meteorological explanation I’ve ever seen. Extended outlook calls for donuts

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Paul Douglas @pdouglasweather.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Our snow drought limps on. Last time we had 10"+ snow in one day at MSP: December 10, 2021. There have been 28 days since 1872 with 10"+ Around an inch of snow tomorrow with a little ice mixed in. Thawing out Sunday and ECMWF hints at a Christmas thaw. A white Christmas is iffy 🙄

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