Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Dopamine shot, A.D. 2016: Seeing likes under your posts. Dopamine shot, A.D. 2026: Clicking "seems like AI slop" on posts in your feed. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026What MVP actually means: always a Product, sometimes Viable, never Minimum. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/mvp-always...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comMVP: Always a Product, Sometimes Viable, Never MinimumMVP hasn't meant "minimum" in years. After going through 1,000+ product pitches, I'm not sure it ever did. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 22/09/2026"LinkedIn is continuing its efforts to reduce AI slop. Within the first two weeks after launching the "Seems like AI slop" feedback option in August, more than one million members have used it to help improve content quality." news.linkedin.com/2026/how-lin...news.linkedin.comHow LinkedIn is Continuing to Tackle AI SlopWithin the first two weeks of launching the "Seems like AI slop" feedback option, more than one million LinkedIn members have used it to help us improve content quality. Recent efforts have already he... 200
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 18/09/2026There are plenty of examples that throwing near-unlimited effort and money on a product doesn't win the product niche. Think Microsoft's mobile, Google's social media, Meta's metaverse. And yet, we believe that the pace of AI coding fundamentally changes product development. Curious. 110
Reposted by Pawel BrodzinskiTudor Girba @tudorgirba.com · 17/09/2026"Software engineering has changed radically. It is now mainly about reading code. But reading code does not scale. We need to delegate to AI." I am glad you now recognize code reading as a problem. However, the broader problem statement is not quite correct and neither is the conclusion. 183
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 16/09/2026It shouldn't have been "good to great." It should have been "good to still good a couple of decades later." 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 16/09/2026At Lunar, we've been appreciating a flexible and broad skill set over a deep one. For years, it felt like an uphill battle. Enter AI. Suddenly, the job market is all like, "You were right all that time." pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/product-de...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comProduct Developer A.D. 2026: Jack of All TradesT-shaped skills still work as metaphor for a decent product developer. It’s just the shape of the T has changed. 001
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Today I learned: Thuesday. I just need to figure out whether it's: a) another name for Wed b) all three days Tue-Thu c) 8th day of the week, neighboring with Wed on either side d) a new name for never-never day (I'll do it on Thuesday) Because, clearly, it couldn't have been a typo :D 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Also: Women (and in broader terms, all diverse groups) pushed out of the industry. The industry, again, becomes more homogeneous, which isn't a welcome change (at least for me). 001
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 09/09/2026After all the improvements in AI models, I got back to my claim that you can't vibe-code a product. Not much has changed on that front. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/you-still-...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comYou (Still) Can’t Vibe-Code a ProductAfter more than a year I revisited my “you can’t vibe-code a product” claim. It aged well. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 08/09/2026In data analysis: Would we infer "valuable lessons" from whatever constitutes 0.001% of data points (or less)? Curiously, in the startup world, it is the main discourse. Lovable this. Thinking Machines Labs that. Best lesson? Ignore them. They aren't applicable to just about any other startup. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 07/09/2026If you expect something not to work and it doesn’t, you learn little. Ditto if you expect something to work and it does. It’s when you are uncertain about the outcome that any result teaches you something. A well-designed experiment, thus, should be a 50/50 chance of succeeding. 100
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 02/09/2026I've seen the "past success and wealth making people believe they are infallible" many times. On a small scale and big. Which is why I'd choose not to be there. I want to live with the consequences of my actions. Excerpt from @edzitron.com www.wheresyoured.at/hyperscale-n... 010
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Students using AI to do homework: - improve their homework scores by 18% - while their exam scores deteriorate by 18-24% Go figure. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comThe Generative AI Learning Penalty: Evidence from Chinese Secondary EducationUsing 30 months of panel data on 26,811 Chinese students in grades 7-12, we study how generative AI affects homework productivity and learning. The data combine 120
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 31/08/2026On Lovable: "3 valuation step-ups (from $1.8B to $13.3B) inside 13 months is happening largely because credit-based and usage-based pricing models convert new users into revenue almost immediately" Actual answer: unlike SaaS, they need money badly to operate. It's not like they turn a profit. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Headline: What Lovable's Round Means for Founders Raising in AI Tools Right Now? The actual answer: It means nothing. You are not Lovable. Also: VCs are all about herd behavior these days. Don't look for too much signal in there. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 28/08/2026"To take agents from 90% reliability to 99% reliability isn’t an improvement of 9%, it’s a 10x improvement." by @jasongorman.bsky.social codemanship.wordpress.com/2026/08/28/t...codemanship.wordpress.comThe Wall Confronting Reliable Coding Agent AutonomyIt’s a classic mistake. We develop a technology in N years for X dollars that’s 90% reliable, and extrapolate that traversing that final 10% will only take another 0.1N years and 0.1X d… 011
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 26/08/2026"Have done" is signal. "Would do" is noise. Same in recruitment. Same in user interviews. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/have-done-...pawelbrodzinski.substack.com“Have Done” Is Signal, “Would Do” Is NoiseStorytelling is a neat hack to make user interviews not suck. 010
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 25/08/2026There are two types of HR: 1. Where H stands for humans and R for respect. 2. Where H stands for headcount and R for resources. 021
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/08/2026In user interviews: "Have done" is signal. "Would do" is noise. Now that I think of it, it's true in many more contexts. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 19/08/2026"How to avoid Claude watermarking your content?" Um... how about: Write it yourself? 021
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 19/08/2026If they know it's a "user" interview, you're doing it wrong. User interviews can be an awesome product discovery tool. They can also make you shoot yourself in the foot. With confidence. Tread carefully. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/they-shoul...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comThey Shouldn’t Know It’s a “User” InterviewDone well, user interviews are a staple for product discovery. Done wrong, they’ll make you shoot yourself in the foot. With confidence. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Have you noticed how Build-Measure-Learn, OODA, PDSA, et al., are all learning loops? No matter which angle we take, we have always tried to optimize for learning. Learning is THE outcome. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/code-is-no...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comCode Is Not the Outcome, Learning IsThere's a build-learn trade-off. We can't optimize for both. For early-stage startups, the choice should be a no-brainer. 012
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 12/08/2026"I want the world to be a better place and it starts with building software industry on meaningful returns on investment and actual useful tools." Whoa! That would require digital startups to plan for making profits. From. The. Outset. That would be new, indeed. 001
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 09/08/2026The gig economy didn't do any good for gig workers. By the same token, the build economy doesn't fare any better for builders. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/build-econ...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comBuild Economy Is All about Build and None about EconomyNumber of released products goes sharply up, but usage metrics stale or decline. So called "build economy" doesn't do builders any good. 110
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Each time I see one of those, followed by some "do AI" advice, I'm like Revenue per employee: OnlyFans: $37.6M PornHub: ~$8M If anything, it's not "do AI." It's "do porn." Sarcasm aside, it's comparing apples to oranges. Doesn't make sense. 030
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 29/07/2026"We should, in fact, subordinate development effort to the pace of experiment validation, and not vice versa." pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/validation...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comValidation Is the New Bottleneck (Also, the Old One)Early-stage startups have limited options for rapid validation. That makes validation timelines the bottleneck of product development. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 27/07/2026"Why don't managers use throughput/lean accounting to manage, and cost accounting to report?" -- @jrothman.com Just realized, I was doing precisely that in the late 2000s. It made intuitive sense. Even if it required translating two worlds back and forth continuously. 010
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/07/2026The latest iteration on controlling AI spend: the budgets (per team, per tool, etc.) Next up: "Why do people use *all* the budgets whether they need them or not? We should have more control over how these budgets are planned." 010
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 22/07/2026The useful part of user journey mapping isn't the big picture. It's finding the one part where the experience is genuinely crappy. The shitty outliers are the whole point. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/user-journ...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comUser Journey Mapping: We Want It to Be ShitThe useful part of user journey mapping isn't the big picture. It's finding the one part where the experience is genuinely crappy. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 22/07/2026Arguably, the most socially valuable contribution of LLMs is all the pats on the back and appreciation we get in response to our prompts. So much support available for everyone. Just one prompt away. Discuss. :D 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 21/07/2026"LinkedIn was the most AI-saturated platform, where more than 40% of longform posts flagged as fully AI-generated." www.pangram.com/blog/ai-in-y...pangram.comAI Content Is Everywhere on Social Media, Especially LinkedIn | Pangram LabsWe scanned over 1 million social media posts for AI content. It turned up on every platform we checked, and 1 in 3 top LinkedIn posts flagged as AI-generated. 111
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 17/07/2026The story is: Netflix got AI to redesign the recommendation page. It increased engagement. Me: When Facebook threw away friends' content and pushed non-familiar stuff to our feeds, it did improve engagement, too. Did it make the service better, though? bit.ly/4psHAZcbit.lyGenPage: Towards End-to-End Generative Homepage Construction at NetflixAuthors: Lequn Wang, Jiangwei Pan, and Linas Baltrunas 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 14/07/2026I played with the statistical data about our pull requests. The gist of it? "Big just got bigger. And we get more of it, too." And that's not good news. brodzinski.com/2026/07/3x-p...brodzinski.comWe 3.5x'd Our Pull Requests with AI: Now We Catch Fewer Bugs - Pawel Brodzinski on Leadership in TechnologyAI made pull requests 3.5x bigger, but defect detection dropped. PR data from two projects shows impact of AI-generated code on quality. 010
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 14/07/2026When we look for a response, it’s easy to rely on an LLM, and parrot its output. That’s good enough. When we look for a thinking process, an AI response is useless. Even if it answers the question. A word-based response is (typically) general-to-specific. A thinking process is specific-to-general. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 09/07/2026“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain is a spiritual godfather of assumption mapping, my favorite product discovery technique. And yes, Twain-o-Meter is a thing. Read on. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/my-favorit...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comMy Favorite Product Discovery Tool: Assumption MappingA simple technique that generates a ton of insight and can redraw the roadmap before we even start building. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 07/07/2026"As animals, human primates tend to correlate CONFIDENCE with COMPETENCE." -- @derekwwade.bsky.social 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Google: "While we remain deeply committed to sustainability, reaching our climate moonshot is getting harder" Also Google: [see below] 010
Reposted by Pawel BrodzinskiBen Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 01/07/2026Not a great economy alert! Wall Street Bets users think Palantir spiked today because The Onion story titled “Palantir Acquires Pentagon for $800 Billion” hit their front page. They’re guessing trading bots indexed the top post on the subreddit reddit not understanding source. 480150733213
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 01/07/2026Modern startup playbook: Hypergrowth. AI. Hype. Ego. What actually improves the odds: Sustainability. Value for customers. Retention. There's hardly a better picture than the Icon (the admaker) story. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/the-case-f...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comThe Case for Sustainability Metrics (or Don’t Be Kennan Frost)The story of the admaker startup Icon is a warning tale for prioritizing growth over sustainability. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 30/06/2026Someone on Substack: Mildly unpopular take: half the SaaS tools I pay for, I could rebuild in a weekend with an agent and never look at a pricing tier again. Me: Question: Why have you not done that yet? 310
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 30/06/2026Discussion about YAGNI Me: With fewer than 5 customers, your defensive coding (addressing potentially catastrophic cases) doesn't matter. It's not code that will kill the business. Also me: That is, unless your fewer than 5 customers is a space mission. Then you definitely are gonna need it. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Consumeability vs engageability. "If you knew that an article was generated altogether by an LLM, would you write a comment? Would you engage in a discussion with a bot trying to share your experience or prove a point?" businessagilityreview.substack.com/p/engageabil...businessagilityreview.substack.comEngageability: Why Human-Created Content Makes SenseIf quality is all that matters we shouldn't care whether a bit of content was created by human or AI. However, if we consider engaging with it, it does matter who or what is behind. 000
Reposted by Pawel BrodzinskiErika Hall @erikahall.bsky.social · 25/06/2026It's really time we updated the conventional design process model to be more descriptive. We're in our third diamond era. 87015
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 25/06/2026"Speed only helps if it is pointed in the right direction. Move fast on the wrong things and AI does not save you time. It manufactures waste at a higher rate." --Melissa Perri 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 25/06/2026When HR rebrands to People & Culture it's typically like a guinea pig. Neither Guinean nor a pig. 000
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 25/06/2026For decades, we learned how to have less work in progress. When it finally looked as if we internalized the idea, with AI, we're making a U-turn. It's concurrency all the way. Let's have a swarm of agents work on a thing! Gonna be good so much better! 031
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/06/2026Pay-once-use-forever used to be a smart tactic to get some early traction. These days, I consider it a smell. Too many folks with nicely looking vibe-coded stuff use that as THE business model. Get enough people to fall for that and then move on to another thing. 011
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 24/06/2026A neat idea: Mom-and-Pop SaaS. Except it's either misleading or an outright lie. Generating code is not remotely enough to have a SaaS-based business going on. pawelbrodzinski.substack.com/p/its-not-mo...pawelbrodzinski.substack.comIt’s Not Mom-and-Pop SaaS EraThe message that now anyone can build their own SaaS is misleading at best and an outright lie at worst. 001
Pawel Brodzinski @pawelbrodzinski.bsky.social · 23/06/2026If and only if we, as a hiring company, care and show care, can we expect the candidates to follow suit. Otherwise, the default assumption is that it's a volume game. Something that companies that outsource their initial screening to AI completely miss. 010