Sign in

Pavel Slunkin

@pavelslunkin.bsky.social
936 followers 52 following 105 posts

Political analyst, ECFR. Former diplomat. Currently at Harvard

PostsRepliesMedia
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
The body of Vladislav Baumgertner, former head of Uralkali, Russian potash giant, has reportedly just been found in Cyprus. His biography includes an episode from political tragicomedy involving a head of Belarus’ government and special services. Thread with an inside below🧵
120
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Lukashenka about the U.S. negotiators: “The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
031
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
News of “authoritarian stability”: In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.” The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
074
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Caption this
010
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Highly respected President of Belarus
121
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Summary of Lukashenka’s interview with @shustry.bsky.social from TIME: “Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
034
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
I’m watching a video of distinguished, talented American diplomats departing the State Department to the applause of their colleagues and the tearful embraces of loved ones waiting outside. My heart is with you today. ⬇️ 🧵
101
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
How a Ukrainian taxi driver helped me get into Harvard. A Sunday thread 🧵
250
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Lukashenka VS His opponent Tsikhanouski What do you notice?
110
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
✙ Kullervo ✙ @kullervo.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
A thread 🧵 by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social on xhitter about meeting between Lukashenka 🇧🇾 and Kellogg 🇺🇸 💁‍♂️
123
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
❤️❤️❤️
110
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
Tim White @twmcltd.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
One of yesterday's big stories was the surprise release of political prisoners by the illegitimate "president" of Belarus. Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
4489
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
U.S.–Iran: new chapter unfolding
130
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
My very brief, speculative take on today’s talks:
062
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Belarusian jails in two pictures: Tsikhanouski before and after imprisonment
064
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Funny moment: Keith Kellog describes Lukashenka’s office: “With all this gold, it looks a lot like Mar-a-Lago.” The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
000
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
After Kellog’s visit to Belarus, Lukashenka released Siarhei Tsikhanouski — a former presidential candidate and the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was arrested by the regime — along with 13 other political prisoners. Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius. Such great news!
142
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Ok, he is getting nervous
010
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
9 years ago, I met Pope Francis for the first time at the UN General Assembly. He said that international law and human rights 'are lights which help to dispel the darkness of the disorder caused by unrestrained ambitions.' Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
020
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
From RAND 2019 report: “Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate. China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
172
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
U.S. policy once served as a clear deterrent for autocrats, who knew there were lines not to cross. Now, those lines are gone. A NATO member can arrest the leading opposition figure - the mayor of the largest city, ban protests and media coverage, and Washington won’t care. /1 ⬇️
151
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Americans traditionally stop supporting U.S.’s war efforts three years after the start of military action. Ukraine fits into this trend of fatigue. Chart by Matthew Baum
110
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Georgia. The hundredth (!!!) day of protests. Without a break. Without excuses. When democracy is breaking down all over the world. This is called perseverance and resilience. ❤️
0183
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
A photo that reflects my mood: complete darkness, pouring rain, and strong winds all around. But thanks to decent people, there is light. And hope.
020
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
How it is going
000
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
A lesson learned by Belarusians over the past five years. It will be useful for my European and American friends who keep asking, “Where is the bottom?!” Well, there is no bottom. Brace yourselves - it will only get worse. And worse. And worse.
030
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Дорогі українці, хочу ще раз сказати вам, як я вами захоплююся. Незважаючи на божевільну несправедливість, яка триває вже понад 11 років, ви показуєте світу, що таке стійкість і навіть знаходите в собі сили жартувати. Обіймаю вас! І дуже люблю. ❤️❤️❤️
021
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
There was another greatest-ever deal on rare earth minerals. In 2017. With Afganistan
49526
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Speaking of dictators. In 2018, when asked whether he planned to run for president in 2030, Putin responded: "Let’s do the math. What, am I supposed to sit here until I’m 100 years old? No." In 2021, Putin changed the Constitution, allowing him to remain in power until 2036.
050
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Cowards may salute dictators, but Ukraine will defend its freedom. Three years ago, Russia felt what it’s like
030
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
An important reminder from Boston
051
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
I think Trump-watchers urgently need to retire the idea of a "transactional" foreign policy. In the light of what's happening, this is another rationalization of something much darker.
821241
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Hat Shaming and Style Crew
000
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
My God, Help Me to Survive This Deadly Love
030
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
Álvaro Escalonilla @alvaroescalonilla.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
“Las negociaciones no sólo irán sobre el alto el fuego en Ucrania. Lo que negocian EEUU y Rusia es la redistribución de las esferas de influencia”, apunta @pavelslunkin.bsky.social. “Tiene más que ver sobre la presencia de EEUU en Europa que sobre Ucrania”. www.elespanol.com/edicion/2025...
elespanol.com
EEUU remarca los fracasos de la UE con Rusia y Ucrania desde 2014 para excluirla: "Tanta gente en la mesa y no funcionó"
La Casa Blanca contempla utilizar el rediseño de la arquitectura de seguridad europea como baza de negociación con el Kremlin. Más información: EEUU y Rusia cierran cinco h...
011
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Well put by Jeremy Shapiro
120
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
How it started
031
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
'The Europeans and the Ukrainians have nothing in their depots' - Armin Papperger, chief executive of Rheinmetall. Europe is entering a new wild era in international relations, prepared as never before...
031
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
Ironically, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many experts predicted the collapse of Russia. Instead, what happened was the collapse of Euro-Atlantic unity and world order
031
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
The most European ‘show of force’ one can ever imagine
010
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
For those of you who abandoned Twitter. Look what narratives they start spreading there
010
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Ten years ago, I was on the organizing team for the Minsk talks on Ukraine. Years later, I found a short note with my impressions: Putin was arrogantly late and full of himself. Poroshenko - utterly exhausted. Hollande - desperately unconscious. Merkel was just being Merkel.
000
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Pavel Slunkin said: “The worst thing that Americans could do now is to stay out of politics.” “Authoritarianism is not something that happens overnight. It is the process of crossing one red line after another over time, without meeting resistance.”
000
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
An important update about my latest post
121
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
The world has reached its most dangerous point for democracies in decades. What seemed impossible yesterday is now becoming the new normal today. If liberal democracies don’t unite for self-preservation, they risk disappearing sooner than we imagine. Short and scary 🧵 below
1915486
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Tbilisi now ❤️
0103
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
While many EU nations grow increasingly euroskeptical, Georgians remain willing to die for their European choice
071
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
78 Georgian diplomats signed a statement for the EU accession after the government announced to stop it. Proud of every one of you, colleagues and true patriots of Georgia! Diplomacy is not about serving your bosses. It is about serving your people and your country.
093
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Georgians, my heart is with you!
060
Pavel Slunkin @pavelslunkin.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
This woman filmed a long queue at a clinic in Mahiliou, Belarus and posted the video online. She was arrested and is set to stand trial for "discrediting Belarus." The criminal charge carries a penalty of up to 4 years in prison.
142