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Paul Warburg

@paulwarburg.bsky.social
3.4K followers 9 following 119 posts

Paul Warburg is a geopolitical analyst and YouTuber. youtube.com/@pauljwarburg?si=SDnFSy… youtube.com/@icarusproject?si=XdEHM…

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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
The loss of Fedorov doesn’t mean the end of his successes. The reforms he was successful in instituting will continue. The areas where he accelerated success are still ongoing, even right now. His inability to make further reforms doesn’t mean the work he already accomplished goes down the drain.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Fedorov was crucial. But don’t forget, he only had his role for 6 months. For 3.5+ years before, Ukraine was still kicking Russia’s teeth in. Many of the successful strategies we’re seeing now began 2+ years ago, before Fedorov arrived. It’s a major blow to lose him. But it’s not the end of the war.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
I keep seeing Russians post on YouTube about how life is still “totally normal.” The irony of having to illegally use a VPN to bypass government restrictions to post to the outside world about how normal life is…is stunning. For content directed INSIDE Russia, social media is full of complaining.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Someone created a fake AI version of me to spread Russian propaganda. Yes, really! Denys Davydov shares more in this video. youtu.be/fLBOXuxnUUU?...
youtu.be
This AI Scam is Getting Out of Control
YouTube video by Captain Denys
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Another banger.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Too many good quotes in this chapter to pass up sharing more.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
There’s a danger to thinking you know something you’ve never truly studied. We see this trend prevalently exploited in modern politics everywhere. Excerpt on “The Power of the Charlatan” from The 48 Laws of Power
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
There’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye. youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?...
youtu.be
What Everyone Missed About Russia’s Attack on Poland
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Ukraine keeps tricking Russia - and Russia keeps falling for it. Short term? Russia loses men and materiel. Long term? Russia loses something much more important - their confidence to exploit legitimate battlefield opportunities, leaving them psychologically paralyzed. youtu.be/pWvhRNbzxuk?...
youtu.be
Ukraine Just Outsmarted Russia in the Most Embarrassing Way
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Predicted this months ago. Ukraine knows the value of its data to training the AI weapons of the future. They don’t have to give that to the west for free - especially to countries like the U.S. if we keep insulting and gaslighting them for defending themselves. www.reuters.com/business/aer...
reuters.com
Ukraine sees 'priceless' digital battlefield data trove as key to West's support
Ukraine is looking at how to share battlefield data with allies, the country's deputy prime minister said, calling the vast trove of stored information one of Kyiv's "cards" to strengthen its position as it negotiates support from friendly countries.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Ukraine’s recent actions against Russia could be much more significant than most people realize. It might look like “more of the same” to the untrained eye, but to me it looks like a decisive shift and a targeted strategy. youtu.be/ZuPxOe6bSgM?...
youtu.be
Ukraine is Actively Exploiting Russia’s BIGGEST Weakness
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
When Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions. Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened. Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.” History repeats itself.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
Much is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage. Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet. They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries. That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
The current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times. “Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.” No surprise. I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.” Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history. We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
By agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them. It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
In Ukraine, conventional weapons are losing relevance in favor of drone warfare. Yet Europe and the U.S. continue to stockpile conventional munitions for a war that may or may not ever happen. It would be better to send more to Ukraine now while they still have a punch. youtu.be/icCwKBjfBkU?...
youtu.be
Russia CAN’T Afford a Second Front — So Why Are They Putting Troops on NATO's Borders?
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
People keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens. Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Russians: “Ukraine isn’t able to siege Crimea, Paul. You don’t know what you’re talking about.” Meanwhile, Ukrainians: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Ukraine says it destroyed one Russian military jet, damaged four in Crimea
Ukraine's domestic security service said on Monday that it destroyed one Russian jet fighter and damaged four other military aircraft during an overnight drone strike on Russian-occupied Crimea.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
These are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner. I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now. We wasted a lot of lives playing politics. apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC...
apple.news
After Trump’s Ukraine pivot, Senate panel moves to fund more military aid — The Washington Post
Bipartisan groups in Congress are attempting to preserve a weapons procurement program for Ukraine that the Trump administration proposed eliminating.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
China’s military doctrine is based on misdirection - and for two decades they have been gesturing wildly at Taiwan so everyone would see. What happens when you put two and two together, and combine a Russian war in the west with intense historical grievances in the east? youtu.be/WMgUhZTNPRE?...
youtu.be
Why China Won’t Help Russia Win This War
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Russia failed to read the 33 strategies of war.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Big milestone today! Thanks to all my subscribers!
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half. That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know. Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Not only can Crimea be sieged, it IS being sieged. But because it looks different than a lot of people expect, many have missed the significance of what’s happened there. More than that, even the Russian military has already pulled back from Crimea in many important ways youtu.be/wzWjnZte6dI?...
youtu.be
The Siege of Crimea Has Already Begun…but nobody’s talking about it
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions. They never do. The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong. That’s how you know you’re over the target.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
The most overlooked aspects of warfare are often sociological. A lot of people will miss the negative religious implications for the Russian Orthodox Church of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake striking with an epicenter next to Russia’s nuclear naval base. That and a lot more: youtu.be/TwSIL-wIHgw?...
youtu.be
Russia forgot about mother nature
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Not to worry guys. It’s not really an earthquake. It’s just a Special Seismic Operation.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Russian TV began threatening Alaska again. Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area. A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north. Irony sucks if you’re Russian.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Russians are currently telling me how Ukrainian strikes on Russian rail lines are irrelevant and won’t make a difference. In the next breath they will tell me how Ukraine would lose the war almost instantly if Pokrovsk fell, because it’s a rail hub.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Ukraine has been crushing Russian supply lines lately. It’s already largely stopped Russia’s summer offensive. And there’s very little Russia can do about it. Russia is too large to fully defend. All it takes is a single strike on a rail line to completely stop deliveries. youtu.be/x0nvJ1Ehi-M?...
youtu.be
Russia’s military has been totally paralyzed
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
It’s now literally true that the Russian government has collapsed in many different regions. That’s because Russia is failing to fulfill the most basic aspects of what a government does - they cannot provide adequate law enforcement. Russia is literally descending into anarchy youtu.be/P7IyrpY8tF8
youtu.be
Russia is literally descending into anarchy
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
When Russia claims the U.S. “staged a coup in 2014” to “oust Russian influence from Ukraine”, do they not realize this only implies Russia was trying to do the same thing, but failed? Not only is this “coup” a lie, but they aren’t even mad that Ukraine was toppled, only that Russian influence was
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Those who say it’s “impossible” for Ukraine to retake Crimea simply haven’t thought about the problem for very long. There’s many paths to Ukrainian victory there - most of them even being relatively bloodless. Sound too good to be true? Find out more in my latest video: youtu.be/y3onBGqcHHk?...
youtu.be
The Hidden Reasons Ukraine is CONFIDENT About Recapturing Crimea
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Two weeks ago I made a video about how the United States would NEED Ukraine’s drones to win wars of the future. I was told I was wrong, that the U.S. couldn’t possibly be less advanced than Ukraine in any way. Now today, it’s announced that the U.S. indeed wants a drone partnership with Ukraine…
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
I correctly predicted that the recent U.S. pause in aid to Ukraine would lead to today’s announcement. Lots of people got this one wrong for various reasons. That doesn’t mean I’m totally thrilled about it. Check out my recent video for why this excites AND frustrates me. youtu.be/w0D93ndf0cE?...
youtu.be
Is the United States Finally Changing Course on Ukraine?
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Over three years into a literal war, I haven’t heard a single American or European politician talk about ever “invading Russia.” Not once. And yet Russia will swear that them invading Ukraine was “defensive” to protect from “NATO aggression.”
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
Check out my full length interview on Silicon Curtain to get my take on lots of important issues at this stage in the war. It was great talking with Jonathan. youtu.be/jCLQRzuPbqg?...
youtu.be
Summer Offensive Could be Putin's Last 'Throw of the Dice' Before Regime Collapse
YouTube video by Silicon Curtain
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Americans will cheer when they watch the lighting of the beacons in “Return of the King.” “The beacons are lit! Gondor calls for aid!” “And Rohan will answer!” *loud cheers* And then in the same breath look at Ukraine’s war against Russia and mutter “Yeah, but helping them would cost us MONEY!”
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
There’s a clear path forward to a lasting peace in Ukraine, if we’re willing to grasp it. youtu.be/nDqn27gl2vg?...
youtu.be
The Video That Donald Trump NEEDS to Watch About Ukraine ASAP
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
With hundreds of thousands of views per video, I rarely see any substantive rebuttals to any of my research on the war in Ukraine. Lots of claims that “Russia is winning” or “This is just propaganda” but that’s as far as it goes. If Russia is winning, why is it so hard for people to explain why?
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
So many reports that Iran’s nuclear capabilities may NOT have actually been destroyed on the same day the ceasefire was announced. It seems silly to have rushed to declare victory before results were in. Or? It could be insincere posturing. “We really wanted fast peace, I promise. Not our fault.”
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
When a U.S. Presidential candidate campaigns on “no more wars”… It’s a sure sign they will probably start or join a war at some point in their term.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
The trouble these days seems to be getting people to believe the reality we can see with our own eyes of the incompetent Russian military struggling to hang on in Ukraine for over 3 years. Instead, many still believe in the fictional Russian military prowess portrayed in Red Dawn and Call Of Duty.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 07/06/2025
Trump accidentally said the quiet part out loud. Threatened to cancel Elon’s contracts for insulting him. Implying the contracts exist because of personal loyalty. Simple. If Elon gives the best service, he should keep the public contracts. If not, why did he have them in the first place?
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
See if you can spot the difference: To retaliate against Ukraine hitting their *military bases* with drones and embarrassing them, Russia ramps up their bombing attacks on Ukrainian *cities*.
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Paul Warburg @paulwarburg.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
A few days ago I made a video explaining how the way Trump was using tariffs (and other things) was a dangerous step towards a centrally-run U.S. economy. A U.S. court agreed, saying Trump’s position does NOT give him the power to unilaterally impose wide sweeping tariffs. youtu.be/9bdrhvWhHKI?...
youtu.be
Trump's New Plan for the Economy is Worse Than You Think
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Reposted by Paul Warburg
Magnus @bunkermagnus.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
@paulwarburg.bsky.social is just churning out one brilliant analysis after the other. youtube.com/watch?v=pZlp...
youtube.com
The REAL Reason Americans Feel So Poor (they aren’t)
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
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Reposted by Paul Warburg
Mike Galsworthy @mikegalsworthy.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Paul - absolutely love your videos. I just watched the one on Russia-China dynamics… and it beautifully matches one I did nearly 2 weeks ago: Title: China can now cannibalise Russia. …all about China’s control over a war-weakened Russia, Siberian depop, Outer Manchuria, resources, trade routes 👇
vm.tiktok.com
TikTok - Make Your Day
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