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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Lastly, we argue that the mean climate is poorly represented when using fixed effects. We test a few examples of how mean climate could be better incorporated, but assuming adaptation yields entirely different projections. More work is necessary since this can completely change the interpretation

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Depending on setup, we argue this may sometimes cancel out the benefit of using precip "as a control" for temp impacts. It's not always a huge effect, but it's worth keeping in mind! The impact of measurement error can be backed out if you know the error - precip impacts double in our GDP example

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

We then set up an idealized multivariate model (with a known outcome) to demonstrate that uncertain variables can cause bias to estimated impacts of other (certain) variables. So, thanks to correlation, uncertain precip can cause bias in temp impact estimates even if temp is perfectly measured

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Relatedly, we discuss the role of aggregation to political boundaries. We point out that running the same model on different levels of aggregation yields very different results. Perhaps surprisingly, more granular estimates don't always yield higher impacts - for GDP it's the opposite!

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

We start by pointing out the different spatial scales of different environmental variables. That means we actually don't have great global datasets of precipitation (relative to temperature). Furthermore, surface measurement are declining and sparse in many parts of the world, which results in bias

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

thanks for sharing, but I think you skipped an important part of the story, which is that they’re assuming - especially in the very optimistic scenario - a large amount of carbon capture to offset the continued extraction of fossil fuels. The required technology does not currently exist at scale.

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

I’m pleased to see that this trend originated in the same place I went birding this morning (in Davis), but here’s a big bright authoritative sign with a little drab defiant bird

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

This is from February of this year. And from what I’ve read it’s gotten worse since then. We’re in the purple. Sources below.

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Tough day teaching about election implications for climate action. But the glass-half-full interpretation is that a lot of mitigation actually happens at the local and state levels. In San Diego, city policy alone makes up over half of planned mitigation, not to mention state.

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Pascal Polonik @pascalpolonik.bsky.social · 02/04/2024

SpaceX launch as seen from Scripps 🚀

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