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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Addendum 2. Lipsits argument is rather simple. Since M2 basically doubled 2x since 2022 and production output hasn't increased, that money supply is not really supported.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Ok, Указ 809 (Order/directive 809) is kind of rabbit hole filled with AI slops. But don't get distracted by poor use of AI. Beneath "traditional values" there are more troubling ideas being imprinted.. Think of modern time Nazi propaganda.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

about state of RU economy. That's why I left comment about lot of numbers thrown around and then they "improve". Our favorite Donetsk lady went to Kaliningrad (pardon, Kralovec) for a conference... Our favorite propaganda channel, well kinda sucks at propaganda, so they just reveal/pin point it.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

And to close out, yeah. Since seeing lot of topics covered elsewhere, I want to focus on things NOT covered. Maybe I'll go with propaganda efforts. Since it has activated considerably (targeting not only outside ru, but also inside ru). Especially they try to overwhelm people with

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

was about VAT rebates - they weren't there. So you increase VAT by 2%, VAT revenue goes up by certain %, but rebates should follow same pattern. They're not there in statistics.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Nevertheless he expects devaluation in near future. Again let's not speculate on amounts, but do expect that this decision kind of makes economic sense. So, in order to fix budget, this tool will be invoked. Yes, I know about side effects on bonds and yadda. Another interesting thing he noticed

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

So, ending war for *utin would imply high change of that happening and population losing their savings. And current govt are aware of that + other consequences. Now last fun part. Yeah, he kind of cherry picked that RUB was devalued ... percent in last 6 months. Tbh, that was a rollercoaster.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I do agree that some of Lipsits projections are way off, that's side note. But the shocking part was him agreeing on certain views (probability of currency reform after war) + others And this is true, look up say "1949 sterling devaluation" + check other countries affected.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Some of those topics are rather controversial sounding, but has historic precedents and economic reasons, although we could argue if that is correct interpretation and reading of the room. And people are just asking for another opinion (we would see same, say on Milovs 4hr+ QA marathons)

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Also is a proponent of Rosstat + knows the inside kitchen, so gives insight on why certain laws and decisions are made. Now given this background info, let's get back to this QA. So, people from audience were asking on topics they heard on Lipsits interviews.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

rather straightforward activity. Again, rather contrast to say Zubarevich. I like to hear different views. So, final one is Oleg Vyugin Former head of Federal Financial Markets Service (now functions covered by RCB with Nabiulinna in front) + stuff. He's more traditional and conservative.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

anyone else's mind. Again, why that was expected - simple, history repeats itself, there's same old USSR thinking, so, probability of that occurring is... well high. So, he's just reading news, thinking of people in charge, since he knows how they think, anticipating next move and consequences is

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

That's what it is about - RU had a choice to improve basically everything or go to war. Well, talking about stupid choices... Let's get back. So, he was also predicting that foreign investments/companies will be taken/yoinked. I think Evgen also did predict that, but that thought did not cross

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

So, whenever he says RU population will sharply drop in 50 years by tens of millions of people - I agree with him. That is the ugly truth. So, when Zubarevich tells that RU economy will still be there. True, technically yes, but with less population and lower standard of living.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

working age males. In short there is another huge demographic cliff comparable (if not greater) than WWII. It's bad. Impact on older people (the current troubles, say with inflation, medicine issues, heating) - don't even want to think about it, let alone wander into that territory.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

When we get that far, I would agree with him. I'm not really covering topics of mortality. For example, excess mortality during Covid in RU is rather "forgotten and swept under the rug". But there are researchers out there and the numbers will shock you. I did cover napkin math on projection of

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Why he's controversial? He's marketing professor. So, his presentation is rather entertaining (well, you need to brighten up some complicated and dark topics in lighter mood). And timelines of his projections are rather obscure. So, he might talk about Russia in like 50 years.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Igor Lipstis. Now this fella is controversial. Why he's good? He was working in State Committee on Prices during USSR and State Bank (at the time when USSR fell). He's was basically in kitchen of USSR's central planned economy. He knows all the people there, whom they taught. He knows how they think

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Natalia Zubarevich. She's professor in MSU. She's really pro-ru and real supported of Rosstat. Although she's follows that in smallest detail and let's say provides good insight on things. Might even argue that Rosstat still is credible source (which is not). So, she's kind of opposite.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Vladimir Milov, most notably videos with Maikl Naki on Sundays. One important thing is that he worked in Ministry of Energy, so he knows to kitchen. For example, Evgen might get really good and obscure info about lets say damages to refineries, but Milov has experience on how market would react.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Honorable mention to @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social, he used to do some videos, although his TG channel is most notable. One common trait is they have.. a pattern on how to they organize their videos (well, since they have to publish regularly and sometimes thing do not change as fast) Now the list.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It was really interesting to see Oleg Vyugin latest interview with QA from audience. That is... peculiar. For out of loop context. I follow several economists covering RU on YT. Let's describe the ones I follow.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

AN-2 is regional small aircraft they still use today. So they thought they could replace with Baikal.. Well, that's another story of fail.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

February. Buryat shamans promised Shaman retribution for licking Lake Baikal. Fast forward today: we have plague in Irkutsk (open google maps) Coincidence? I think not!

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Could someone behind 7 proxies share the 2027 budget project? sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/615-9 Available from ru ip range only.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

To be fair, they could just seal the city. That's design decision. But I guess everyone will be epidemiologist now.

static.klipy.com

Dr. Barty's Plague Doctor Strut on the Beach

ALT: Dr. Barty's Plague Doctor Strut on the Beach

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

That Flydubai flight. Seen so many reportings. I feel like somebody is AI spamming with all possible scenarios. What did you read first? So, at least Israel MFA reports pilot is Indian.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

From the guys who like to draw big arrows on maps.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Imagine screenshots of threads here going to textbooks.. "Good morning students! Today we will be going through Russian Railways Loading threads."

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Not only Donbass, whole Kuzbass. The tension is rising, true. Seeing "mr president, there has been a terrible mistake" types of videos daily. People are desperate, true, but not mass protests and clashes with police level of desperate. So, there's still wiggle room. терпили потерпят for now..

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Oct30 is definitely on watch list. But I think it's down for decision from Sber/above. Kind of prisoners dilemma for Sber.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

So, it's may or may not. And if we dig further

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Addedum. Technically Samolet still haven't crashed. But take a look at БО-П13.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Okay, next phrase we will be hearing a lot will be "domino effect". Not that it will happen, although I don't rule out. But we will hear that often.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Well, since people do not protest yet, there's still wiggle room.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

So, the biggest divergence now is - they print more money without feeling any consequences. Let’s say working theory is - those will be felt soon.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I'm not sure about farming situation. It seems there's ostrich strategy now. Yes, they're screaming, somewhen that fire should be extinguished, but we can wait a little. So let's defer that for tomorrow.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Need to determine - what will reaction to Samolet tech default would be. And let's not forget about WB, Ozon. That kettle is boiling. That's why other things thrown out not really interesting for me. Bad numbers appear, govt rushes to "fix that number", suddenly those numbers looks better now.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

About that keyword. People (economists and other watchers) noticed the pattern of different statistical reportings. I think most visible trigger for them was rosstat indicating one thing sber spending index complete opposite. And it finally clicked with other areas. Well, it was bound to happen.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

And if not mistaken, Sber is the major lender. But VTB could be there as well. So, there will be something. Oh, that govt reinsurance company getting bailed out. Funny case, that's definitely not the last bailout, although drop in ocean money wise.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

They had technical default yesterday. Now offering 228% yield for 3 months. They do have some land for development, I would think they would want to sell that, doubt any developer would be willing to buy. They could dump it, but that could trigger chain reaction with others following.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Closing this keyword. Yup, heard it week or so ago. Need to come up with next. What we missed? Govt taking over companies. Nice. Bunch of numbers thrown around. Let's say unimpressed. Yeah, farmers are fcked, nothing yet so far. I would look at Samolet though.

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Not really. They could just defer payments to next spring. What you gonna do, sue?

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what do these numbers mean? @paavels.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

If coming from moon side, probably to weaken IR sensors on air defense side.

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