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Test Account for auindata.bsky.social @ozindata.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

El Nino is happening fast and early

As of 30 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.45°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.91°C over twenty months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calendar.