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Oumar Aly BA

@oumaralyba.bsky.social

PhD candidate GeoHealth, Global Health, Geospatial, Development Economics, Culture, Extreme Weather Events | @ISG_UNIGE, @GSEM_UNIGE, @ITM_Antwerp .

Posts Replies Media

Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

@Institut des sciences de l'environnement (ISE) - UNIGE @Institute of Global Health - UNIGE @Faculté de médecine - UNIGE @Université de Genève @srhgroup-itm.bsky.social @itmantwerp.bsky.social @kemriwellcome.bsky.social

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Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

This work brings together environmental science, global health and economics, with colleagues at UNIGE and ITM Antwerp. Grateful to all coauthors: Fleur Hierink, Cameron Taylor, @pete-m-m.bsky.social, @lenkabenova.bsky.social, Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti, and Nicolas Ray.

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Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

In 2015 alone, we estimate about 29,000 additional births occurred outside facilities due to extreme rainfall.

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Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Main finding: each additional heavy-rain day in the 3 days before birth is linked to 11 more out-of-facility births per 1,000 live births. Figure 1 shows effects are strongest when rainfall occurs closest to birth, and robust across thresholds/windows.

Coefficient plot showing estimated effects of extreme precipitation on facility-based births across different rainfall thresholds and exposure windows before birth. Effects are mostly negative, with stronger reductions when heavy rainfall occurs closer to the birth date.

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Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

We link 256,101 live births from DHS data to daily high-resolution precipitation across 12,948 locations. The question: when heavy rainfall occurs just before labor, are women less likely to reach a health facility?

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Oumar Aly BA @oumaralyba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

New paper in Nature Communications. We show that extreme rainfall reduces access to facility-based births across 21 sub-Saharan African countries. Climate shocks are also health access shocks. doi.org/10.1038/s414...

Maps of sub-Saharan Africa showing estimated non-facility births attributable to extreme rainfall for the year 2015 only. Panel A shows absolute numbers; panel B shows non-facility births per 1,000 births. Darker colors indicate larger estimated effects.

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