iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

James G @orth.ca · 01/10/2026

Dunno why this made me think of this:

A tweet from Dick Lover 30000 "I am the biggest dick lover of them all."
A reply from Dick Lover 30001 "Not so fast"

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James G @orth.ca · 01/10/2026

For some reason, I have the Chrono Trigger Fanfare stuck in my head the past couple of days. Where did I hear it?!?

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James G @orth.ca · 30/09/2026

Bothers me so much that this graphic line breaks on the Series tied 1-1 www.mlb.com/postseason

A portion of the bracket illustrating the Phillies Braves series tied at 1-1 but there's a line break after the "-"

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James G @orth.ca · 30/09/2026

I just can't get over the fact the last time the Jays scored a worse runs per game in a full season was 1980. Like it was hair pulling infuriating offense. www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tin...

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James G @orth.ca · 29/09/2026

You know what needs to happen? These fuckers need to start sitting in the cellar more often. I want this to be us so bad. These fans man, no idea of what they have.

Yankees since 1995 have missed the playoffs 6 times.

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James G @orth.ca · 29/09/2026

Looking like the Leafs decided to embrace the hate. Nylander: "It's about the fucken Leafs."

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James G @orth.ca · 28/09/2026

This pic just showed up in my memories heh. Have you ever wondered what the Jays foul pole looks like up close? Two rigid steel lines separated by nylon netting.

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

Not sure I've seen John redder.

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

What a snag by Valenzuela!

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

George had his moments in CF for the Jays too.

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

Springer had just one walk off for the Jays, back in 2023.

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

Probably for me the most memorable regular season bomb.

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James G @orth.ca · 27/09/2026

Remembering these wheels.

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James G @orth.ca · 26/09/2026

Forgive me but I needed a mental image illustrated.

Reacher carrying a stack of a couple dozen paintings.

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James G @orth.ca · 26/09/2026

Forgotten big home run a year ago today. www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TO...

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James G @orth.ca · 22/09/2026

This is how to pitch I guess

A strike zone visual with all 6 pitches on the left, right and bottom edge.

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James G @orth.ca · 21/09/2026

There are 3 total games in MLB tonight. As close to a must win as it can get, nothing to watch out of town.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Mon Sep 21 2026. TOR 77-79, 6 games left.

STAND: 3.6% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 3 games back of CWS for the third and final spot - and CWS holds the tiebreaker. CWS took the season series 6-1 with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them; TOR has to finish a clear game ahead. Their remaining opponents average 0.471 against 0.397 for CWS (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 3.6% and CWS at 98.0%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (3.6%), so a road series.

TODAY at BAL 6:35 PM ET, Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz, BAL 75-81. Lose 1.1%, now 3.6%, win 6.2%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 28-20 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 96.3%.

BY WINS in the final 6: 4 wins 2.0%, 5 wins 15.5%, 6 wins 47.8%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 89-66, 100.0%. BOS 84-72, 100.0%. CWS 80-76, 98.0%. TOR 77-79, 3.6%. HOU 77-79, 40.3%. BAL 75-81, 0.0%. MIN 73-83, 0.0%. DET 73-83, 0.0%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.471 to CWS's 0.397, and CWS plays 3 of its last 6 on the road.

LAST 6: at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 3 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is BAL v TOR at 17 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY: nothing on the out-of-town board moves TOR's number; the day rides on TOR's own game.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 1.1%; all for TOR 6.0%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 20/09/2026

Just for completeness, I'll run this through to the bitter end, but the hope is p much dead. At 3.8%, it's like the Jays are down 4 batting in the bottom of the 8th with none on and none out.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Sun Sep 20 2026. TOR 76-79, 7 games left.

STAND: 3.8% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 3 games back of CWS for the third and final spot - and CWS holds the tiebreaker. CWS took the season series 6-1 with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them; TOR has to finish a clear game ahead. Their remaining opponents average 0.478 against 0.410 for CWS (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 3.8% and CWS at 93.7%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (3.8%), so a road series.

TODAY at TEX 2:35 PM ET, Spencer Miles vs Jacob deGrom, TEX 78-77. Lose 1.5%, now 3.8%, win 6.3%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 27-20 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 92.0%.

BY WINS in the final 7: 5 wins 6.2%, 6 wins 27.6%, 7 wins 62.8%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 89-65, 100.0%. BOS 84-71, 100.0%. CWS 79-76, 93.7%. HOU 77-78, 43.6%. TOR 76-79, 3.8%. BAL 75-80, 0.5%. DET 73-82, 0.0%. MIN 72-83, 0.0%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.478 to CWS's 0.410, and CWS plays 3 of its last 7 on the road.

LAST 7: at TEX x1, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 3 against live rivals. Biggest series this week is BAL v TOR at 16 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): ATH at CLE, cheer ATH, +3.26. DET at CWS, cheer DET, +1.36. ATL at HOU, cheer ATL, +0.54. MIL at BAL, cheer MIL, +0.01.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 0.5%; all for TOR 11.0%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 20/09/2026

Me telling folks yesterday afternoon I had come to peace with it just not being the Jays year.

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James G @orth.ca · 19/09/2026

The postseason probability is now roughly equivalent to the Jays being down 2 in the bottom of the 7th with 2 outs and none on and a 1-2 count on the batter. Or flip 3 coins and they need to land all heads.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Sat Sep 19 2026. TOR 76-78, 8 games left.

STAND: 11.8% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 2 games back of CWS for the third and final spot - and CWS holds the tiebreaker. CWS took the season series 6-1 with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them; TOR has to finish a clear game ahead. Their remaining opponents average 0.483 against 0.418 for CWS (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 11.8% and CWS at 86.6%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (11.6%), so a road series.

TODAY at TEX 7:05 PM ET, José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill, TEX 77-77. Lose 6.1%, now 11.8%, win 17.9%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 27-19 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 83.5%.

BY WINS in the final 8: 5 wins 12.7%, 6 wins 41.8%, 7 wins 75.3%, 8 wins 94.4%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 89-64, 100.0%. BOS 84-70, 100.0%. CWS 78-76, 86.6%. TEX 77-77, 52.2%. TOR 76-78, 11.8%. BAL 75-79, 2.1%. DET 73-81, 0.0%. MIN 72-82, 0.0%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.483 to CWS's 0.418, and CWS plays 3 of its last 8 on the road.

LAST 8: at TEX x2, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 5 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is BAL v TOR at 35 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): ATH at CLE, cheer ATH, +5.73. DET at CWS, cheer DET, +3.22. ATL at HOU, cheer ATL, +1.20. MIL at BAL, cheer MIL, +0.11. MIN at LAA, cheer LAA, +0.00.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 3.4%; all for TOR 25.8%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 18/09/2026

Remembering when Bo hit the PH homer in Texas and it changed the entire course of last season. Asking for that from anyone tonight/this series.

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James G @orth.ca · 18/09/2026

As you can see from today's graphic, the Jays are only 1 good day from getting back into it (38.9%) but also 1 very bad day from having single digit probabilities (9.2%). I imagine it will be somewhere in the middle, but the room for error is slim.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Fri Sep 18 2026. TOR 76-77, 9 games left.

STAND: 20.9% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 2 games back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.484 against 0.460 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 20.9% and CLE at 72.5%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (20.8%), so a road series.

TODAY at TEX 8:05 PM ET, Dylan Cease vs Kumar Rocker, TEX 76-77. Lose 13.0%, now 20.9%, win 29.1%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 27-18 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 72.5%.

BY WINS in the final 9: 5 wins 15.2%, 6 wins 45.0%, 7 wins 76.2%, 8 wins 94.1%, 9 wins 99.4%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 88-64, 100.0%. BOS 83-70, 100.0%. CLE 78-75, 72.5%. TOR 76-77, 20.9%. TEX 76-77, 38.2%. BAL 75-78, 3.1%. DET 72-81, 0.0%. MIN 71-82, 0.0%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.484 to CLE's 0.460, and CLE plays 6 of its last 9 on the road.

LAST 9: at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 6 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 49 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): ATH at CLE, cheer ATH, +8.55. DET at CWS, cheer DET, +2.56. ATL at HOU, cheer ATL, +1.27. MIL at BAL, cheer MIL, +0.43. BOS at TB, cheer TB, +0.03. SEA at COL, cheer COL, +0.01.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 9.2%; all for TOR 38.9%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 17/09/2026

A little bit of a tick up, but not much. Scoreboard watching only tonight.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Thu Sep 17 2026. TOR 76-77, 9 games left.

STAND: 22.2% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1.5 games back of CWS for the third and final spot - and CWS holds the tiebreaker. CWS took the season series 6-1 with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them; TOR has to finish a clear game ahead. Their remaining opponents average 0.486 against 0.433 for CWS (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 22.2% and CWS at 83.0%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (22.0%), so a road series.

TODAY: TOR idle. Only the listed out-of-town games affect today's scenarios. Next: Sep 18 at TEX, 8:05 PM ET.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 27-18 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 74.8%.

BY WINS in the final 9: 5 wins 17.7%, 6 wins 49.6%, 7 wins 80.6%, 8 wins 96.0%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 88-64, 100.0%. BOS 82-70, 99.8%. CWS 77-75, 83.0%. TEX 76-76, 53.5%. TOR 76-77, 22.2%. BAL 75-78, 4.2%. DET 72-80, 0.4%. MIN 71-81, 0.1%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.486 to CWS's 0.433, and CWS plays 3 of its last 10 on the road.

LAST 9: at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 6 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 51 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): DET at CWS, cheer DET, +3.43. KC at HOU, cheer KC, +1.77. BOS at TEX, cheer BOS, +1.43. MIN at LAA, cheer LAA, +0.04.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 19.5%; all for TOR 26.1%. Includes only listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

Really not sure I've ever seen Busch Stadium this empty, I had to double take.

A view out to the outfield with the number of people in attendance being around 25 people

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

Love to get several minutes through a survey to get this, lmao

Survey instructions noting the next questions you have to answer by audio or video.

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

Feel free to use this for a gazillion reasons.

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

Here's the bleak outlook after last night's absolute worst case scenario happened everywhere. Jays have to go 8-2 for a reasonable chance, 7-3 is just a coin flip.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Wed Sep 16 2026. TOR 75-77, 10 games left.

STAND: 20.1% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 2 games back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.482 against 0.466 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 20.1% and CLE at 66.1%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (20.1%), so a road series.

TODAY vs DET 3:07 PM ET, Max Scherzer vs Keider Montero, DET 72-79. Lose 12.2%, now 20.1%, win 25.9%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 26-18 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 66.1%.

BY WINS in the final 10: 5 wins 4.8%, 6 wins 24.1%, 7 wins 56.8%, 8 wins 84.2%, 9 wins 96.8%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 88-63, 100.0%. BOS 82-69, 99.9%. CLE 77-75, 66.1%. TEX 75-76, 41.0%. TOR 75-77, 20.1%. BAL 74-78, 2.8%. DET 72-79, 1.2%. MIN 70-81, 0.1%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.482 to CLE's 0.466, and CLE plays 6 of its last 10 on the road.

LAST 10: vs DET x1, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 7 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 47 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CWS at CLE, cheer CWS, +5.79. BOS at TEX, cheer BOS, +1.97. KC at HOU, cheer KC, +1.42. BAL at NYM, cheer NYM, +0.35. NYY at MIN, cheer NYY, +0.04. SEA at LAA, cheer LAA, +0.02.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 9.5%; all for TOR 32.4%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

Every Clement point of contact in the last two months feels like this...

I dunno, I'm too depressed. Ernie's way out on his front foot swinging at a pitch high and outside and getting under the ball.

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James G @orth.ca · 16/09/2026

This is the single biggest WPA swing by a Jays batter this season with bases loaded, 2 outs.

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James G @orth.ca · 15/09/2026

Here's your graphic for today. You know the drill by now.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Tue Sep 15 2026. TOR 75-76, 11 games left.

STAND: 37.0% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1 game back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.480 against 0.473 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 37.0% and CLE at 52.1%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (36.7%), so a road series.

TODAY vs DET 7:07 PM ET, Braydon Fisher vs Drew Anderson, DET 71-79. Lose 27.4%, now 37.0%, win 44.4%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 26-17 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 52.1%.

BY WINS in the final 11: 5 wins 11.2%, 6 wins 36.4%, 7 wins 67.3%, 8 wins 89.0%, 9 wins 97.9%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 87-63, 100.0%. BOS 82-68, 99.9%. CLE 76-75, 52.1%. TOR 75-76, 37.0%. TEX 74-76, 36.5%. BAL 73-78, 2.1%. DET 71-79, 0.8%. MIN 70-80, 0.4%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.480 to CLE's 0.473, and CLE plays 6 of its last 11 on the road.

LAST 11: vs DET x2, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 8 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 58 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CWS at CLE, cheer CWS, +8.51. BOS at TEX, cheer BOS, +2.43. KC at HOU, cheer KC, +1.77. BAL at NYM, cheer NYM, +0.54. NYY at MIN, cheer NYY, +0.24. SEA at LAA, cheer LAA, +0.03.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 21.4%; all for TOR 52.0%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 15/09/2026

I don't understand why all the curves and splitters suddenly instead of the sinkers.

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James G @orth.ca · 15/09/2026

Cleveland broadcast already with a permanent score bug for the Toronto game on their broadcast.

A broadcast of baseball showing the score of the Detroit/Toronto game in the top left corner.

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James G @orth.ca · 14/09/2026

Early look at the probability impact of tomorrow's games.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Mon Sep 14 2026. TOR 75-75, 12 games left.

STAND: 44.1% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1 game back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.478 against 0.476 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 44.1% and CLE at 59.0%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (43.5%), so a road series.

TODAY vs DET 7:07 PM ET, José Soriano vs Troy Melton, DET 70-79. Lose 34.4%, now 44.1%, win 51.6%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 26-16 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 59.0%.

BY WINS in the final 12: 5 wins 7.9%, 6 wins 29.4%, 7 wins 60.0%, 8 wins 84.6%, 9 wins 96.4%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 86-63, 100.0%. BOS 82-68, 99.9%. CLE 76-74, 59.0%. TOR 75-75, 44.1%. TEX 74-76, 33.0%. BAL 72-78, 1.1%. MIN 70-79, 0.7%. DET 70-79, 0.5%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.478 to CLE's 0.476, and CLE plays 6 of its last 12 on the road.

LAST 12: vs DET x3, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 9 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 58 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CWS at CLE, cheer CWS, +6.48. NYY at MIN, cheer NYY, +0.30. BAL at NYM, cheer NYM, +0.28. SEA at LAA, cheer LAA, +0.06.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 30.7%; all for TOR 55.0%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 13/09/2026

The swings in probability are growing as the number of games diminishes. The Jays probability can be anywhere from 24.3 to 54.6% today.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Sun Sep 13 2026. TOR 74-75, 13 games left.

STAND: 40.1% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1 game back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.477 against 0.475 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 40.1% and CLE at 51.9%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (39.4%), so a road series.

TODAY vs BAL 1:37 PM ET, Dylan Cease vs Trevor Rogers, BAL 72-77. Lose 30.4%, now 40.1%, win 47.8%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 25-16 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 51.9%.

BY WINS in the final 13: 6 wins 10.9%, 7 wins 36.2%, 8 wins 66.2%, 9 wins 87.2%, 10 wins 96.9%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 85-63, 100.0%. BOS 81-68, 99.8%. CLE 75-74, 51.9%. TOR 74-75, 40.1%. TEX 73-76, 23.5%. BAL 72-77, 3.2%. MIN 70-78, 2.6%. SEA 70-79, 5.6%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.477 to CLE's 0.475, and CLE plays 7 of its last 13 on the road.

LAST 13: vs BAL x1, vs DET x3, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 7 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is TEX v TOR at 55 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CLE at MIN, cheer MIN, +7.44. TEX at AZ, cheer AZ, +2.26. CWS at STL, cheer STL, +2.01. HOU at TB, cheer TB, +1.01. SEA at ATH, cheer ATH, +0.34. KC at BOS, cheer KC, +0.15.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 24.3%; all for TOR 54.6%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 12/09/2026

Last night sucked. Lets get back in the W column. Notice how the White Sox are now the second most impactful opponent.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Sat Sep 12 2026. TOR 73-75, 14 games left.

STAND: 31.2% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 2 games back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.478 against 0.475 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 31.2% and CLE at 66.5%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (30.1%), so a road series.

TODAY vs BAL 3:07 PM ET, Spencer Miles vs Kyle Bradish, BAL 72-76. Lose 22.5%, now 31.2%, win 38.0%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 24-16 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 66.5%.

BY WINS in the final 14: 7 wins 10.6%, 8 wins 33.6%, 9 wins 62.6%, 10 wins 84.9%, 11 wins 96.1%, 12 wins 99.4%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 85-62, 100.0%. BOS 80-68, 99.7%. CLE 75-73, 66.5%. TOR 73-75, 31.2%. BAL 72-76, 6.4%. TEX 72-76, 16.3%. MIN 69-78, 1.8%. SEA 69-79, 4.3%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.478 to CLE's 0.475, and CLE plays 8 of its last 14 on the road.

LAST 14: vs BAL x2, vs DET x3, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 8 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is DET v TOR at 40 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CLE at MIN, cheer MIN, +6.41. CWS at STL, cheer STL, +2.90. TEX at AZ, cheer AZ, +1.59. HOU at TB, cheer TB, +0.47. KC at BOS, cheer KC, +0.21. SEA at ATH, cheer ATH, +0.10.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 17.3%; all for TOR 43.8%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

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James G @orth.ca · 11/09/2026

Early look at tomorrow's probability swing for the Jays.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Fri Sep 11 2026. TOR 73-74, 15 games left.

STAND: 41.8% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1 game back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.477 against 0.475 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 41.8% and CLE at 49.9%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (41.0%), so a road series.

TODAY vs BAL 7:07 PM ET, Max Scherzer vs Chris Bassitt, BAL 71-76. Lose 32.7%, now 41.8%, win 48.9%.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 24-15 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 49.9%.

BY WINS in the final 15: 7 wins 11.4%, 8 wins 35.8%, 9 wins 65.0%, 10 wins 85.9%, 11 wins 96.1%, 12 wins 99.3%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 84-62, 100.0%. BOS 80-67, 99.8%. CLE 74-73, 49.9%. TOR 73-74, 41.8%. TEX 72-75, 19.5%. BAL 71-76, 3.7%. MIN 69-77, 3.6%. SEA 69-78, 5.4%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.477 to CLE's 0.475, and CLE plays 9 of its last 15 on the road.

LAST 15: vs BAL x3, vs DET x3, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 9 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is BAL v TOR at 48 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): CLE at MIN, cheer MIN, +6.02. TEX at AZ, cheer AZ, +2.57. CWS at STL, cheer STL, +2.11. HOU at TB, cheer TB, +0.81. SEA at ATH, cheer ATH, +0.22. KC at BOS, cheer KC, +0.14.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 27.2%; all for TOR 54.8%. Includes TOR and listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

111

James G @orth.ca · 10/09/2026

No game today, but three games sum to a 5% swing in changes.

Dark infographic, "Blue Jays Playoff Watch", Thu Sep 10 2026. TOR 73-74, 15 games left.

STAND: 40.3% to reach the postseason, all wild card (AL East 0.0%). 1 game back of CLE for the third and final spot - but still holding the tiebreaker. TOR took the season series with no meetings left, so any tie at the finish goes to them. Their remaining opponents average 0.478 against 0.475 for CLE (a tougher run home). The model puts TOR at 40.3% and CLE at 47.8%. Almost certainly the 3rd wild card (38.9%), so a road series.

TODAY: TOR idle. Only the listed out-of-town games affect today's scenarios. Next: Sep 11 vs BAL, 7:07 PM ET.

SEASON TREND: bottomed at 2.8% on Jul 29 at 49-59, gone 24-15 since. CLE has fallen the other way to 47.8%.

BY WINS in the final 15: 7 wins 10.7%, 8 wins 33.6%, 9 wins 61.7%, 10 wins 83.5%, 11 wins 95.0%, 12 wins 99.0%.

AL WILD CARD: NYY 83-62, 100.0%. BOS 80-67, 99.7%. CLE 74-73, 47.8%. TOR 73-74, 40.3%. TEX 72-74, 29.9%. BAL 71-76, 3.8%. MIN 69-77, 3.2%. SEA 68-78, 4.8%. TOR's remaining opponents average 0.478 to CLE's 0.475, and CLE plays 9 of its last 15 on the road.

LAST 15: vs BAL x3, vs DET x3, at TEX x3, at BAL x3, vs CIN x3. 9 against live rivals. Not one remaining opponent is over .500. Biggest series this week is BAL v TOR at 47 points.

ROOT FOR TODAY (100,000 paired sims, swing in points): TEX at SEA, cheer SEA, +2.11. PIT at CWS, cheer PIT, +1.54. HOU at PHI, cheer PHI, +1.21.

FULL DAY: all against TOR 37.4%; all for TOR 42.4%. Includes only listed rooting games, forced together. Scenarios, not predictions or absolute limits.

METHOD: every game simulated, clubs rated from run differential, strength of schedule and record, plus per-sim strength uncertainty. No player projections. boxscore.online/playoffs

130

James G @orth.ca · 09/09/2026

I think a lost irony about September 11 is this plane crash on that day in 1974. Idle xenophobic and racist chatter leading to distracted pilots resulting in a crash. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern...