iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

East coast Australia is sweating and burning 🔥 at the start of spring. With an ElNino setup like this, it’s possibly the least surprising thing in the world 🥵

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Typhoon Dolphin 12W makes for an impressively large system with an enormous wind field with 34+ kt (63+km/h) winds extending 250 nm (463 km) from the LLCC! That is extraordinary! from JTWC: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST 195 NM SOUTHWEST 235 NM NORTHWEST

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Super Typhoon Bavi #09W at 00:20 UTC today 8th July. With 130 kt sustained winds (1 min) and 160 kt gusts it is currently a highend Category 4 (SS) system with a central pressure of 917 hPa. Fortunately it should now stay well clear of any populated areas for the next few days at least

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Shallow (10 km) 6.7 Mag earthquake in Indonesia just now

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

This the latest sat image (09:50am 28/5 AWST) of the Indian Ocean high lattitude cut off low that is going to hit SW WA on Sunday/Monday. Quite an extraordinary little system. EC has it down to 973 hPa on Sunday!! Images From: KOMPSAT-2A - 640 nm (Red) band

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

There is one thing on this watch-face that has seriously disturbed me from the day I bought it 15 years ago. #HugoBoss 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

... and this is the AWS readings of #CycloneIlsa before it stopped functioning ... 118 kt sustained winds will do that! #OTD

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The official BoM report can be found here: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/hist... #CycloneIlsa #OTD

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

While overall damage was minimal, pardoo station sustained ~A$15M in damage after sheds were blown away. and two illegal fishing boats capsized killing 8 fishermen. #CycloneIlsa #OTD

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

OTD Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa crossed near Pardoo roadhouse. Cyclone Ilsa set an Australian windspeed record with 118 kt (219 km/h) 10 min sustained wind speed recorded at Bedaut Island. #CycloneIlsa #OTD

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Two meso-vorticies currently visible in the cleared out eye with Himawari-9 being in prime viewing position for this one, near directly overhead.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

While visible images show a classic donut CDO typical of strong typhoon / hurricane / cyclones the latest MW images show a reasonably thin and lopsided eyewall structure, which is surprising given its very strong visible presentation. #Sinlaku #04U

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Super Typhoon Sinlaku (#04U JTWC) has entered BEAST MODE.5️⃣🌀 Sustained winds of 155 kt (290 km/h) gusting to 190 kt (350 km/h). Well into Cat 5 (SS) territory.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Might want to check your numbers here

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Im not going to post the model runs post tau 144hrs as you might as well throw a handfull of darts at a dartboard, but all models hint it coming back towards Queensland after 7-10 days. Something to definitely keep an eye on!

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Tropical low 37U is forecast to form in the Solomon Sea in the next week. ACCESS, EC and GFS deterministic runs have it intensifying to tropical cyclone strength in about a week.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Heading straight for Exmouth Severe TC Narelle makes for an impressive sight tonight on the IR sat images. Exmouth and Learmonth are in for a rought ride in the next 24 hours! #Cyclone #CycloneNarelle

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Latest WV, IR and SST Really looking forward to watching this over the next 24 hrs! :)

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Cyclone Narelle is looking a lot healthier this afternoon with a broad ragged eye evident in the latest sat loops Broad and deep moisture wrapping the system over very warm SSTs >30 °C It will go *BOOM* soon with a period of RI for the next 24 hrs.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Latest MW image shows good convection and evidence of banding as Ex Narelle #34U / #27P crosses back into the warm waters of the Indian ocean. From 2 hrs ago #CycloneNarelle #Cyclone

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Big differences between the GFS and EC Ensembles highlight the uncertainty in ex #Cyclone Narelle ( #34U / #27P) 's track. Big differences between official BoM track and JTWC too ... Bottom line- it is a waiting game. Dont believe the hype (yet)

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Some cool standing gravity waves are evident over the King Leopold Ranges in the Kimberly while Ex TC Narelle (TL 34U / 27P) enters the JBG. It probably wont have time to redevelop before crossing into the Kimberly later today. #CycloneNarelle

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Ex-TC Narelle is showing a large eye on the Katherine Radar

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Ex Tropical Cyclone Narelle (TL 34U) spinning its way across the Northern Territory

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

It is important to note that this is just one model output, there is still significant uncertainty in the ensemble members

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Latest model runs have tropical cyclone Narelle re-intensifying to cat 4-5 strength before recurving towards Perth. All major deterministic model runs (ACCESS/GFS/EC) have Narelle crossing very close to Perth as a cat 1-2 system

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

STC Narelle and its tiny little eye over the last few hours #Cyclone

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

MW imagery shows good internal structure but surprisingly a little asymmetric with much stronger convectionto the N/NW of LLCC(From 08:00am AEST)

Microwave image of Tropical cyclone Narelle in Blue, green, red and black in order of increasing intensity, large red/black blobs to NW of LLCC indicate higher convection

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone #Narelle this morning. A beautiful looking sys with all ingredients for maintaining current intensity. V cold CDO (-85 to -95C). Models have it weakening slightly with land interaction just prior to landfall, but BoM suggest it could still cross as a Cat 5.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

In the longer term #CycloneNarelle will likely track into the Gulf of Carpenteria where warm SSTs & low shear could see redevelopment to Severe TC strength prior to landfall in the NT East coast. It may even redevelop over the timor sea. This will be a big one, defintely worth following!

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

#CycloneNarelle will remain in a low shear env. (5-10 kt) with excellent & deep moisture. Good outflow / SST are positive for intensification (29-30°C). Poleward outflow improvement may lead to RI & depending on speed, landfall could be Cat 5 (Aus scale, Cat 4 SS) 120kt (220km/h) sustained (10min).

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Cat 2 Tropical Cyclone #Narelle ( #27P / #34U ) should intensify considerably over the next 48 hours, with a possible period of RI. Steering mechanisms are strong so there is a lot of confidence in the track, however there is uncertainty in speed and therefore timing of landfall.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

All major models are signalling a very active tropical Australia over the next week and a half. TLs in GoC, Timor sea, and Coral sea. Still a long way out but the consistancy between the models indicates it is worth watching.👁️👀 #Cyclone #Tropics

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

A lovely "landcane" over central australia right now! Quite rare, it is dumping tons of rain over normally parched deserts. Stunning! #Landcane #Low #AusWX

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Eastward upper outflow For STC #Mitchell looks restricted on the IR satellite loop which is likely hampering development with increasing shear also evident. I think it has peaked and is unlikely to further intensify.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Winds picking back up on Barrow island with the backside of Severe Tropical #CycloneMitchell Radar indicates some recent Southerly movement which may put Onslow in the firing line of the Eastern eyewall.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

The last hour or so of Severe Tropical Cyclone #Mitchell viah Himawari-9 at high temporal resolution (2.5min). This is from the red, 640nm band imager.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Most recent MW images (05:25 AWST) show strongest convection is likely to be on backside of #Cyclone #Mitchell

Microwave image in red and green showing eye of cyclone Mitchell nust NE of Barrow island

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Obs beginning to peak at Barrow Island for Severe Tropical #CycloneMitchell Pressure down to 980 hPa.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Admittedly this is resonably old (5:40am AWST 7th Feb) but it is the latest MW image with decent coverage, and it looks more impressive than I thought with really strong convection in the NE quad #CycloneMitchell. It has definitely improved since then so Im looking forward to another good sat pass.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Large eye feature on the radar loop from Tropical Cyclone Mitchell, with outer bands hitting Port Hedland right now. Keep an eye on Barrow Island AWS as the centre of the system approaches. #CycloneMitchell

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Most recent RGB satellite loop. Track map has a likely crossing near Onslow, a town of about 800 people but also crossing Barrow Island, where the worlds highest non tornadic wind was ever recorded.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (#21U / 20S) is a pretty large system and is currently at 982hPa Cat 2 (Aus scale) with sustained winds around the 50 kt (92km/h) mark. With warm seas, low-mod shear tons of moisture and good outflow, it is expected to strengthen today to cat 3 with winds to 80 kt.

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Tropical Low 21U -> Tropical cyclone. Seems likely for the Pilbra / Gascoyne regions of WA with all major models on the same page. It could be a nasty one too with some models down to 960 hPa. #21U

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Ex TC Luana is drenching central WA right now

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James Holbeach🌀 @opplevelse.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Mildura is seeing some seriously dry air! 48 °C with DP of -1.5 °C! #VicWx #AusWx

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