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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

• July jobs 73K vs 110K est • June revised down from 147K to 14K • May revised down by 125K down to 19K

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

PCE YoY, Core PCE YoY, ECI (q)YoY all came in hot. PCE MoM, Core PCE MoM both +0.3%, both the highest in four months. I don't think it's a bigger problem than this, but... Inflation was gone... it isn't anymore.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Tomorrow (Saturday) 2p ET: Quarterly webinar. We identify three of the ten pillars of genAI that have risen to a new tier of opportunity (higher stock prices). Member's only webinar. You can decide if you want to join here: pro.cmlviz.com/cmlpro-signu...

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

$MP +50%; US government (DoD) will buy $400 million of preferred stock in MP Materials. Pentagon to become largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials; shares surge 50%. - @cnbc.com

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

》ADP Employment Change • -33K vs 95k est; 95K prior • First drop since Mar '23 I'll say it like I did on Jun 12, 2025: I think the labor market is not as strong as ppl think.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

PCE Price Inflation YoY: 2.3% vs 2.3% est and 2.2% prior. PCE Price Inflation MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior. Core PCE Price Inflation YoY: 2.7% vs 2.6% est and 2.6% prior. Core PCE Price Inflation MoM: 0.2% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Trump says China will supply rare earths in ‘done’ deal - @CNBC

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Trump Gives U.S. Negotiators Room to Lift Export Controls on China - @wsj

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Reposted by Ophir Gottlieb

Still an absolutely brutal job market for the US tech industry, which is back to losing jobs year-on-year after several months of tepid positive growth

a graph of year-on-year change in US tech employment, which falls in early 2025

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

》Non farm payrolls • 139K vs 147K est • March and April were revised lower (90K) • Unemployment: 4.2% vs 4.2% est • Participation: 62.4% vs 62.6% est (equal Feb's two year low) 》Wage Inflation • MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% est • YoY: 3.9% vs 3.7% est

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

》PCE • MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est • YoY: 2.1% vs 2.2% est 》Core PCE • MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est • YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% est US inflation has, for all intents and purposes, hit the Fed's target.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

🚨US court blocks Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs via Reuters Court blocks Trump's tariffs, citing overreach of authority Constitution grants Congress power to regulate international commerce

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

S&P PMIs Mfg: 52.3 vs 50.1 est; 50.2 prior. 🟩 Services: 52.3 vs 50.8 est; 50.8 prior.🟩 Composite: 52.1 and 50.6 prior.🟩 Initial Jobless Claims: 227K vs 230K est; 229K prior.🟩 Continuing Jobless Claims: 1903K vs 1890K est; 1867K prior.🟥

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says tariffs haven’t dented consumer spending - @CNBC

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

My view of inflation, GDP, EPS: • Today's CPI did not have the tariffs in there. • Core CPI number sticking at 2.8% surpirsed me and is not evidence that inflation is cooling - rather it's evidence that it is not moving (and this is pre-tariffs). 1/5

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

Goldman raised S&P target back to 6,100 from 5,900. - @CNBC

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

» CPI MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est YoY: 2.3% vs 2.4% est; 2.4% prior. » Core CPI MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est YoY: 2.8% vs 2.8% est; 2.8% prior.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

US Treasury's Bessent says China 'negotiations' to start Saturday without Navarro - via @Reuters

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Excellent. 》Non Farm Payrolls • 177K vs 130K est 》Unemployment rate • 4.2% vs 4.2% est 》Wage inflation • MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est • YoY: 3.8% vs 3.9% est

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

$MSFT • Azure revenues +33% YoY; 16 points of growth from AI. • Continuing to spend on AI infrastructure to meet ballooning demand. - @cnbc

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

• ADP was very weak (yesterday). • Today, we get weekly claims. • Tomorrow, full non farm payrolls. 》Initial Jobless Claims • 241K vs 224K est • DOGE claims trivial: 470 ppl 》Continuing Jobless Claims • 1.916M vs 1.86M est • Highest since November 2021

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

OK, heads up for Friday morning: ADP was really weak; the Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday is a big binary event. If NFP is strong, we could rip higher. If NFP echoes ADP, we could have a new leg down. ADP: • 62K vs 115K est and 147K prior.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Not good. » US Job Openings (JOLTS) • 7.192M vs 7.48M est; 7.48M prior. • Job vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed fell to 1.02

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Port of LA executive director (Gene Seroka) via @cnbc • 35% drop in cargo for next week (YoY) • 45% of port business is from China made products • Month of May arrivals 25% below normal • Retailers have 5-7 weeks of full inventories left

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey • Texas factory activity rose in March • Perceptions of business conditions down • Business activity down; lowest since July • Company outlook down; 8-month low • Outlook uncertainty highest since fall 2022

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

March PCE inflation (out on Wed Apr 30) should read 2.1% (rounded). Apr PCE (out in late May) should read 2.0% (rounded). Tariffs are a 🤷‍♂️but this is the Fed's target measure. It could be time to cut, tbh, politics aside.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

The Trump administration said on Friday that it is restoring the student visa registrations of potentially thousands of foreign students in the United States whose legal status had recently been abruptly terminated, according to a court filing. - @Reuters

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Inflation expectations getting squirrely: » UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations • 6.5% vs 6.7% est; and 5% prior. » UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations • 4.4% vs 4.4% consensus and 4.1% prior.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. Medical equipment and industrial chemicals, for example, ethane, are among goods that may see exemptions. - BBG

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

$NVDA NVIDIA Rumored To Collaborate With DeepSeek To Develop Custom AI Chips For China • Plans To Rely "100% On China," Ensuring Supply Chain Uncertainty - via @wccftech US lost the narrative for now.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

The (supposed) moves by Huawei preparing a new AI chip impact $NVDA not so much bc of China sales, but bc US tech follows the path of efficiency. If Chinese bring genAI costs down, I assure you US tech will follow. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL are not $NVDA.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

This will work out, one way or the other, on the final resting point for tariffs. Don't let histrionics surrounding the Fed distract. This is about tariffs. When they are settled, so too will the market (for better or for worse).

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025. Three components that weakened: 1) consumer expectations 2) stock prices 3) new orders in manufacturing. Data does not suggest a recession has begun or is about to start.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

$NVDA Huawei announced it's preparing a new AI chip as an alternative to Nvidia.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

US dollar hitting multi-year lows is an inflationary impulse.

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

$TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor kept its bullish outlook for growth in 2025, expecting mid-20% growth this year and a doubling of AI revenue. - BBG

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

$NVDA Nvidia said it will take a $5.5 billion quarterly charge due to new U.S. export license requirements for its H20 GPUs to China and other countries.

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

$DXY (US dollar index) is now at a 52 wk low. • Imported Goods: More expensive (intensifies tariffs) • Borrowing Costs: Higher yields (consumers & gov't)

Brett "Solidarity 2026" Banditelli @banditelli.org · 09/04/2025

Reposted by Ophir Gottlieb

It's a good as hell day to fight back the urge to be controlled by the despair.

the sunrise over a mountain outside king city, california. composite of 3 different shots, so slight misalignment due to being handheld. taken about an hour ago

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Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

Borrowing costs (10yr yield) are *higher* today than when tariffs were announced. That is a flight *out of* the US. This is making the debt burden worse while causing inflation and slowing growth. This is a total fail (so far).

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

Trump threatens new 50% tariffs on China if Beijing doesn’t remove retaliatory duties - @cnbc

Ophir Gottlieb @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic impact of new tariffs is likely to be significantly larger than expected, and the central bank must make sure that doesn’t lead to a growing inflation problem - BBG