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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

… meaning the midpoint would be full time of game #534. Which was… England 2-2 Argentina, 30 June 1998. So Kevin Keegan’s fateful “yes” will soon be the half time whistle in the history of the tournament. (This is mildly more interesting than the current midpoint, Saudi Arabia 2-1 Morocco, 25/7/94)

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

@footballcliches.bsky.social The mention of Three Lions now being the midpoint between 1966 and today got me thinking what the midpoint of the history of the World Cup is, not in terms of time but in terms of games. By the end of the 2026 tournament there will have been 1,068 games played…

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

One for football historians: in the 130+ year history of English second tier football, would there have ever been a bigger underdog than Sheffield Wednesday at Coventry today (24/1)?

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Never thought I’d watch let alone enjoy multiview, but an excellent experience tonight.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Hi Graham - have done, though you may be best contacting me at omar@twentyfirstgroup.com

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Must admit I haven’t looked; I’m very happy not knowing and doubling down on my belief that it‘s an enormous loss to the sport

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

What a moment! Caps a thoroughly enjoyable matchday 8. Last year was a damp squib but really, really enjoyed this evening

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

the biggest upset in FA Cup history. However, I think ‘shock’ is a more subjective assessment, and it is arguable that Macclesfield’s win is a bigger shock than, say Bradford’s win at Chelsea in 2015 (12/1 odds compared to 20/1 odds, if you’re that way inclined).

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

Can we get the panel’s verdict on Macclesfield’s ‘biggest FA Cup upset’ vs. ‘biggest shock’? I believe the former to be the correct technical assessment: ‘upset’ is shorthand for victory against a higher-division team, and as this was the largest difference in league places it is objectively…

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Reposted by Omar Chaudhuri

Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

... and to what extent that is portable to Man United. Our research shows that a manager's previous record is less predictive of how he will perform in a new role than how the previous coach performed at that club. (5/5)

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 27/12/2025

Objectively great sport. Five switches of favourite 🎢

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

And again in Nigeria’s penalty defeat just now. It’s penalty taking 101 now

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Hi David, sure - drop me an email at omar@twentyfirstgroup.com

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Yeah those are the obvious top three. But after that? Maybe the Liebherr family? Maybe you Then you’re into provincial clubs like Burnley and Bournemouth, which is a totally different kettle of fish to owning one of the top 10 or 15 clubs in the country IMO

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

It’s a good question: of Premier League club owners in the last 24 years, how many would you put above Levy?

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

I don’t doubt that, but if you look at Everton for example, it’s clear clubs can stay below their ‘natural’ level for a very long time without good management

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

In terms of absolute difference in revenues, has there ever been a bigger upset in football, ever? c. £6m plays c. £600m.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015: - Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise - MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17 - Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022 - Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

I think this is absolutely the case. England players certainly know it - but hard to imagine what it’s like in the moment

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

On tonight’s evidence, the time taken between the whistle and start of run up remains the strongest predictor of a penalty kick’s success.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 13/07/2025

Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Less about the comeback, more that one side needs to do just one small thing to secure victory - which isn’t generally possible in time-limited formats

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 08/06/2025

Yes, exactly. I suppose chess has an equivalent too!

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 08/06/2025

By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 06/04/2025

My first sight of Grand Slam Track this evening. Love MJ and attempts at new things in sport. But first impressions matter, and all a bit amateurish: 1) Empty stadium 2) Sound issues on broadcast 3) Really poor explanation video on format On the plus side: Steve Cram

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Admittedly not a full programme of matches, but the fact that the team with the 11,000-seater stadium is the shortest-priced favourite this weekend in the Premier League is pretty remarkable.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Presumably allowing two touches though would enable someone to 'dribble' towards goal before shooting? The laws could have something about 'intention' but I think it's probably fine as it is

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

David Luiz. Considering his era (immediately post-Pep/Barca), his position and playing style, his physical appearance, and probably the clubs he played for, I’m not sure there has been a player more perfectly Pure Discourse.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Yes that’s fair - I’m thinking more about European leagues (see follow up), who currently all sell rights individually to minor UK platforms and have no cut through.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

The sheer volume of football in the EFL or EU leagues outside the big 5 means that there is always an interesting story somewhere. I think there is a small market for, say, a Sunday afternoon goals show using European leagues that aggregate their UK rights (currently worth ~0 anyway).

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Of all the takes on the UCL, I thought this was the most perceptive. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be, but it was better than before. And I think the likes of the EFL and groups of European leagues should think about how lots of games at once can make for fun TV for (informed) fans

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

And that they discarded the away-goals-rule-but-only-in-extra-time quirk 🙁

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Yes I thought that - 23 points for Forest over the remaining 18 games feels quite low, but OTOH better than what Spurs and United have done so far.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

By gameweek 20: LEI - 2nd, 40 points, projected 6th & 64 points FOR - 3rd, 40 points, projected 6th & 63 points Pretty amazing parallels. Major difference for the title race is that Leicester were 2 points off first-placed Arsenal, Forest are 6 and Liverpool have a game in hand.

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Omar Chaudhuri @omarchaudhuri.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Comparing Leicester 15/16 and Forest 24/25: Pre-season betting market: LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points By gameweek 10: LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points

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