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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Western Russia air alert monitoring last 30 days. Last night strike was a culmination of a recent campaign over Moscow. There was a period of quiet after Witkoff/Kushner in western Russia that now seems definitely broken. For first time, there where drone warnings for Murmansk and Karelia

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

yesterday there was also drone warning for Murmansk. As far as I know, this is the first occurance

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

things are heating up, and scenarios like this is kind of why I built the ais spoof monitor. I could not see any suspicious ais spoof events evening on 14th in the are, nothing out of the ordinary. EW not activated here

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Last 14 days air raid activity over western Russia. Last night strikes on Leningrad are first after a relatively quiet period. Note the pause Aug 24-25 during CIA director Ratcliffe visit in Moscow

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Supposedly from the third attempt on Wildberries in Tver yesterday

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Russia, in other news, being Russia. Strike down on anyone reporting on environment issues, detain anyone who plans take part in elections

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Kaliningrad provides reporing on 157 fuel stations, price, availability and queue times. Prices are more or less fixed across the region

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

two strikes on Wildberries in Tver Oblast, on Aug 4th and 6th. As per governor Korolev, only damages on both strikes

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

This coincides in time with warnings and airport restrictions and reports on air defenses operating in Moscow

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

fun thing with an agent scanning and summarising telegram, you can get presented surprising news articles "Putin expanded the possibilities for signing contracts with the Ministry of Defence for convicts" (Fontanka, local st Petersburg paper)

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Övningsledaren: vi befinner oss nu i ryska baltiska flottans kommandocentral. Klart för eldgivning

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

earlier this morning, range safety boat (skjutfältsbåt) PROJEKTILEN was spoofed into Kaliningrad while in Karlskrona

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Drone alert for Leningrad, internet being blocked

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Rysk ersättningsförmåga för starlink

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Vyborg-Primorsk bus 130 has a large gap in sampling close to village Glebychevo, which happens to be at Pribylovo military airfield (332nd Separate Guards Helicopter Regiment). Effectively blurred on Yandex

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Sampled bus traffic over some days, not clear of what to see. But one surpise!

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Inte många timmar lugn och ro i Moskva. Det är ett skifte vi ser

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

kryssningsrobotar rapporterade över 400km in i Ryssland. Observationer i Moskva Oblast

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

"the distant strategic rear" is not so distant anymore

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

air raid alert monitor is capturing status on monitored channels, official statements and breaking news. Main focus are Baltic neighbouring regions (Moscow just to test model). Idea is to see if countermeasures are correlated (more spoofing activity). Maybe, maybe not. We'll see

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Air raid alerts for Moscow tonight again. Vnukovo airport restricting flights

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

And Kaliningrad has the great drone scare

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Moscow Oblast - Air Threat Active In Moscow Oblast, air-defence systems were reported operating during activity involving UAVs, according to Radar across Russia. A UAV warning was also reported by monitoring.rf and Radar across Russia. 27 Jul 2026 07:27 MSK

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

about to test an air raid aggregator/monitor, test below

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Looking in details into this Krasnotorovka spoof circle location. It is labeled "Military Unit 30879", supposedly Baltic Fleet hardened command center. Yandex satellite image is edited to only show forests (not even blurred). The habit to place spoof into areas of interrest is clear

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

somewhere the last 6 months, aisstream has lost significant coverage in inner Gulf of Finland (I have not kept record). Only very little coverage east of Gogland. A couple of individual reports in St Petersburg and intermittant vessels at sea

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

A hypothesis (without really knowing how this works): an ais station has been offline, or queueing buffered messages, and replays data and we have collisions on timestamps. Ais seems to be very clumsy in timestamping

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

here we have this kind of pattern with back and forth jump, forming like strings on a harp. In this case this is an effect of mmsi collision. Two vessels, VICTORY and LEA are reporting same mmsi. Will adjust tracking logic

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

why is cargo ship AGAETE dreaming of Molkom. Have you ever been to Molkom?

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

I think the differences in extent are largely weather driven. Maybe I should look into that temp/air-preassure propagation project again

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

it is interesting that there are events only picked up on ais, not ads-b (there are many such examples). Maybe due to antenna configuration? Here we see ais events that are not matched in time or location with aircrafts. Heatmap overlay still shows potential source of ads-b events (only indicative)

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

This massive spoof circle is at the large oil depot at Pereslavskoye. All brand new, built over the last 5 years, definitely a protected high value target

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

In terms of reach, I think we are seeing some records now. Dagö north, Møn west and even at quay in Oskarshamn

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Shadow fleet cargo ship KHOLMOGORY (273342810) moving south with Smolensk power plant mode activated Cargo ship MSC GIUSY (636023268), not shadow listed (?) has Smolensk power plant event in same time period and in same area

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

So this is weird. You got yourself a new spoofer to your port in Kaliningrad. You can set whatever position you like, and you punch in the coordinates for the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

still WIP, combined ais and ads-b events and localization based on horizon line of sight (only indicational)

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

WIP, an event by event sppofer source geo locator. My idea is to correlate with AIS events. ADS-B is better to geo locate, less impacted by weird sea level wave propagation effects

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

4km north of zero point, we have "Unit 49911 to the FSB 16th Center". 4km away is the major Opochitsy spoof circle (located in area by horizon intersection). Quite a read about the unit in the article at t.co/nYxfjeixrJ.

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

I did not share the method back then as the source data was not public and not really mine to share. However, it is based on gps loggers. You will see the classic spoof circles and drifts (partial data only)

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Drone strikes on Moscow Oil Refinery, NPZ Kapotnya, on June 16, about 15km south east from the Kremlin

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

Besides many other interesting findings, this article discusses three known bad harbour areas on AIS, Stockholm, Amsterdam, Ft Lauderdale arxiv.org/html/2602.16...

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

something is sending aircraft in Romania/Bulgaria to Lima. Classic spoof circle, but uncommon behaviour, normally we see spoofer located close to the spoof into cluster

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Is the von der Leyen spoofer located on an offshore rig? It may be possible. However I tune the model, it always falls short of the Crimea coast. Global Fishing watch SAR data reports no fix infra on the southern fields. Northern platforms have been hit several times, known to be used for SIGINT

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Reposted by Ramon Zarate

Euan MacDonald @euanmacdonald.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

The Crimean Wind Telegram channel says the Russians have built a pontoon bridge next to the damaged Chonhar bridge (probably indicating that it is currently unusable). The channel said satellite imagery confirmed reports from its sources that the pontoon bridge had been set up.

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Ramon Zarate @oldsun.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

I may want to return to this at one point. If spoofs are simply replays, I believe they are replaying everything, multiple satellites, ephemeris. Maybe not almanac. May clarify what to look for

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