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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

NESO issued a Electricity Margin Notice last night for 16.00 to 19.00 today, the wind forecast is due to trough at 16.00-17.00 tonight. Day-ahead prices cleared at £280/MWh, enough to get the OCGTs interested. bmrs.elexon.co.uk/events

bmrs.elexon.co.uk

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Just heard someone referring to colocated batteries and standalone batteries as Green BESS and Grey BESS, and am hearby proposing that we refer to Behind the Meter batteries as Salmon BESS. Would also accept Fuchsia BESS.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Madness, you can't just take away the UK ETS and expect things to remain stable, What happens to interconnector trading? What happens with CBAM? Wouldn't the existing CfDs just absorb the saving?

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Weird news for the day, the NESO control centre has issued a margin notification for the evening, I dont recall a June EMN before(!)

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Update to the cap and floor legal challenge, Zenobe's application has been dismissed, the Tribunal found that the scheme does not constitute a subsidy decision (and also that it does not have authority to review the scheme). www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/fi...

catribunal.org.uk

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Good to know that DESNZ don't know how NIV chasing works

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Reposted by Tom Edwards

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 28/04/2026

In the last few weeks, the UAE has a) sounded out the US on a swap line b) pulled billions of dollars out of Pakistan, an ally c) left Opec, where it was one of the biggest members by quota.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Also, where is the breaking of the link between gas and power? By the government own ambition gas will still be running in 50% of hours (generous reading 30% of the time?)

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

New GB wholesale mechanism being consulted on - the Wholesale CfD - RO genertors get to keep their ROCs, but exchange their current PPAs for a government backed one at a fixed price

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

What practical short-term options might exist for capping or de-linking gas from power prices? Three spring to mind from recent REMA discussions, converting RoCs to CfDs, iberian gas price caps and moving CCGT to a RAB model.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

CPS is a tax on fuel at the gate, the £18/t duty is equivalent of £7-8/MWh based on the efficiency of the power station. As gas plant are normally the marginal fuel we would expect this to be reflected into a reduction in nearly all traded wholesale power products.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

If we were just think about pure supply and demand ways to cut energy prices, is more gas supply or less gas demand better? lets assume we use wind to cut gas burn rather than stop industrial gas use...

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Because its in the news again, Ideas for analogies to explain the marginal pricing system*: *its not really a formal system

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Brent Crude might be over $100/bl but a Cormorant flew over me on the walk to work this morning

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Capacity Market T-1 for delivery in 2029-30 has kicked off this morning - I think it should clear relatively low, as there is a big chunk of existing capacity (around 6.1GW I reckon) and the target is 6.3GW.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

If you want to give a battery developer nightmares, show them the CBA for P462. The modification proposes to remove subsidy costs from the BM, reducing the number of negative prices in cash-out and feeding through into whoelsale markets. The initial CBA results show a near 60% reduction in revenues!

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

This will have no impact on AR7 : a) unlikely these companies will rise to the bait b) they are protected by CiL provisions in the CfD contract which is a private law contract between the state and the developer c) ISDS are a nasty thing to get on the wrong side of

ft.com

UK green energy groups warned they would lose subsidies under a Reform government

Deputy leader Richard Tice says rightwing populist party will reassess ‘all net zero commitments’ due to high costs

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Im assuming this is the REMA zonal decision - no zonal, reforming TNUoS but maintaining focus on predicatability and a more efficient balancing system

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Even if, as widely reported, zonal has been ruled out of REMA its very likely to come back again (perhaps even as LMP next time). Even with planned investment in network, constraint costs are likely to increase, so locational pricing will return to the agenda in the 2030's (you heard it here first)

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

Bless the Machine Once, as the holy currents flow! Bless the machine twice as the optimisation is performed! User beware, the Final Physical Notification is sacrosanct and must not be altered after the annoitned hour...

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

We've done an office refresh and to celebrate I thought I would do some modelling* to spice up the decoration

A Diorama of a floating offshore wind farm with an offshore support vessel passing by, on a shelf in an office location

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

With the rumour mill working overtime and expectations that REMA decisions could drop in the near future, why not check out our Insight Paper: Revolution Takes Time: Implementing Zonal Power Pricing in GB, which analyses past power market reforms to consider how long it will take to implement REMA

cornwall-insight.com

Revolution Takes Time: Implementing Zonal Power Pricing in GB | Cornwall Insight

We explore the practical challenges and potential timelines if zonal pricing is adopted, drawing on Cornwall Insight’s new Zonal GB Benchmark Power Curve, the paper examines the complexity of the ref...

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

New CfD Budget mechanism will mean parties can't see budget before hand, only a govt. capacity ambition. They will only see the budget after the allocaiton. Meanwhile SoS gets powers to see auction data and decide budget to meet value for money requirements.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

So far this year 483MW has terminated its CfD agreement, including 382MW of onshore wind and 100MW of solar pv. All of the Solar PV was supposed to connect this year and the wind was due for 2026, 2028 and 2031

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Great LCCC re-brand work here - nothing screams experts in renewables more than office workers sitting ankle deepin the surf watching wind turbines with only two blades

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

DESNZ confirms final Auciton volumes for T-1 (2025) and T-4 CM (2028) auctions - a total 0.3GW reduction for T-4 as 1.9GW under delivery is offset by 2.2GW additional from newly signed Drax CfD

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Drax is being given a new CfD agreement for its post ROC units from 2027 - the interesting thing is that it has some new mechanisms for the CfD, generation caps and collars and windfall mechanisms

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Interesting, the 2nd Unit at Eggborough new build CCGT has had its CM agreement terminated, that was 850MW with 776MW at £63/KW for 15 years, probably the best result they could have hoped for

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

I have been on my jollies recently so its time for a game of Guess that Power Station! The second photo should give some clue as to the location of this 2.4GW CCGT

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Do you want to know what I think is the most interesting thing about yesterdays tight period? Have a look at the batteries ("Other" on the BMRS mostly) - they were on over the peak, but they weren't being called in the Balancing Mechanism

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Looks like the margin improved from when I last posted 509MW> 1003MW

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Now there is a Capacity Market Notice

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

NESO has issued a Electricity Margin Notice this morning for the darkness peak this evening - insufficient operating margin is forecast given the tight operating conditions for the evening

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

In some idle time over the holidays while waiting for models to finish running I thought I would try and answer a question that’s been nagging me over the last year or so – is balancing with interconnectors harming our ability to meet Net Zero?

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Matt Kirk is very angry about Code Governance reform to the SQSS www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/defaul...

ofgem.gov.uk

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Here's the update on REMA assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/675acc...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

On REMA, can we apply what we know about last time Ed was SoS? I think he was responsible for moving from Invest and Connect to Connect and Manage, effectively socializing constraint costs through BSUoS

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Government pushes out "new plan" for meeting their Clean Power 2030 goals, to me this seems like a desperate "announce something" ahead of Christmas, all of the points mentioned here were either already within the power of government or already being worked on. www.gov.uk/government/n...

gov.uk

Government sets out plan for new era of clean electricity

Government delivers on the Prime Minister’s Plan for Change to build an energy system that can bring down bills for households and businesses for good.

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Tom Edwards @notionalgrid.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

While this is good news for consumers, I wish EDF would have delayed this announcement by 2-3 weeks, now I have to redo all my five year forecasts. www.edfenergy.com/media-centre...

edfenergy.com

EDF confirms boost to UK’s clean power targets with nuclear life extensions

Four nuclear power stations will generate for longer in a boost to the UK’s energy security and clean power targets.

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