notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 27/09/2026That’s true for any college degree though. And - I think - broadly useful. A lot of that is being self organized though 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 27/09/2026I agree. But then the question is: If they are already competent, why should they take the specialization course outside of their major? I find it bizarre that an engineering student should be forces to take a random liberal arts class. because that is bizarre in a European uni 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 27/09/2026That statement implies that a college degree is required for being a fully qualified element of the capable citizenry. That strikes me as a bad state of affairs 5160
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Why? They have a card to play and it’s worth some fraction of whatever the reroute/smuggling costs would be. Economically they can extract this reasonably cheaply (ie the rest of the world would absorb it without really noticing). But typically the ancillaries should be more valuable to them 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Agreed, which is why I’m saying the loss of (friendly) global power projection capability is ~fine for Europe. I’m only pointing out there is a limit when it stops being fine: Once the “pirate side” develops to “able to attack on the high seas”. At that point you need some USN equivalent again 001
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026That was the transition cost and failed just-in-time deliveries. After that we compensated for it. In particular, we didn't have the same shock after the Huthis basically closed Suez (~no insurance at costs smaller than going around). Yes, the neighbours of Malacca have a one-time $100bn card 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026The detour Malacca requires is less than 1000km. The ~blockage of Suez didn't matter and that's >4000km 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026And that's a whole different can of worms, but has little to do with power projection capability in itself 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Global shipping/trade will be fine if any of these gets ideas. Where the turn-to-unreliabilty of the US would become a bigger problem is when states start doing privateering again. But there we are not talking about the pure power projection capability at that point you need global dominance 200
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026But Malacca is not a true choke-point. It is something you can put a tax on but not block. The way through the Sunda Strait is what? 700 miles extra? Hormuz is special because there is no way around it. Even having the Suez blocked was/is fine. And that's a detour of 3000 miles 210
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026You keep repeating that, but I still don't get why this is necessarily correct. Yes there are a number of maritime choke points. But the only real one is Hormuz. And... give it another couple of years and we can just do without it. Everything else is high-seas. And - so far - all the piracy is local 210
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Arguably the US was generating the refugees. Prior to upending the local dictatorships there was a quite dishonest "you keep your people in check and we'll pay you" arrangement with at least North Africa and parts of the ME. Russia/Ukraine is a different story, but no heavy airlift or navy needed 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 29/08/2026That’s more complicate. Yes current google is crap compared to 2010-2015. But so was google search in 2020. The problem is SEO and the adversarial nature of the attention economy. Removing AI is not going to fix that. The same goes for the slop/useful ratio. Tha also was already crap prior to AI 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Internally, maybe. But as outsiders we don’t overly care. Internationally, the US is down to being a transactional purse. And the buying price and terms of delivery are going to go up 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 28/08/2026I think America ran that experiment in Trump I. Trump II is the successor. And it turned out the system is not okay 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 20/08/2026So this seems natural for “scores don’t normally max out“ work 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Why is that surprising? Back in uni especially the math courses made sure that no one would get full marks. And yet I’d expect Claude to get full marks - after a team decided to make that part of the benchmark. I’d also expect AI users to do worse in the exam 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 17/08/2026That’s the point though. If the pilferage is due to “lack of food” a technical solution (aka “provide more food”) can help. But if the pilferage is intended policy (aka a social problem) no amount of “provide more food” will reduce the amount of pilferage 1120
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Which is - of course - sad and I’d personally prefer a more liberal and rules oriented world. But that’s kind of the only reason you _need_ to project power worldwide 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 07/08/2026And yes the “once we deal with“ is doing a lot of heavy lifting. But except for US sanctions there isn’t much ideological reason for the Europeans not to just pay the Iranians. The problem is more that we’d need to shut up about our preferences (human rights, democracy, ..) of other countries rules 210
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 07/08/2026This would throw any country under the bus that’s purely inland of constricted waters. So Ukraine depends on Turkey, the GCC on the IRGC, Poland on Denmark and so on. That’s a massive shift in the power landscape. But for Europe as a whole - once we deal with the energy supply - not particularly bad 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 07/08/2026But what if we decide that’s not the case? There is - except for the Persian Gulf - no water way that you can’t sail around. E.g Somali pirates are only a threat because we decide to sail close to their cost. It is possible to just sail on the high-seas. It’s just more expensive 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Out of curiosity, what’s the argument against Europe saying: “We are fine with the IRGC owning all of the middle East”. Sure that means that oil/gas will be a bit more expensive and we likely need to divest from US bases in Europe to avoid getting in the crossfire. But.. not the worst offer 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 25/07/2026But that‘s not necessarily a place you _want_ to be. I.e. the guaranteed 50k make you better off! Not getting that is a cost. Yes, as soon as the 50k do not change you life materially anymore you are strictly better off with the EV-optimal. But that’s a pretty large caveat 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 25/07/2026But it’s not a zero loss proposition. You loose the certainty of the 50k. That is the risk that you are taking with the EV-optimal decision! And “loose 50k” has different relevance for different people 110
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 24/07/2026Given that there are a lot of people above sixth-grade, who don’t seem to understand that. And even more people who aren’t able to make them understand. I think there might be something to learn here. And I don’t think getting angry is helpful 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 24/07/2026Let’s be honest though. “Honest private communication” automat leads to “loose your job” with Trump. we have seen that with all the WH chiefs of staff from Trump1 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 26/06/2026That statement does not become less incorrect the more often you repeat it. A window unit is not simpler or with less permitting to be ”installed” by a person 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 26/06/2026I don think your statement is correct. I’m not aware of single window replacements (outside of fixing a broken glass). In non of the houses I‘m aware of in all of the 30+ years I’m alive. We really do not replace windows. And at least the more modern ones are far too tigjt to fit a hose through 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Agreed, but do not underestimate the possibility of Europe to elect its own idiots. There is a non-zero chance that all the alt-right movements here will get into power. And we’ll have to sit them out before rapprochement will be politically viable. This can still be “all sides were complete morons” 1320
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 04/06/2026Do you have any estimate how big of a book your collection would be? 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 21/05/2026While I agree with that assessment, I’d be interested in an actual evaluation. The US took less losses, but it took a number of very expensive losses. Not sure what the correct metric is, but in monetary value, not sure if Iran lost “more” 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 13/05/2026but not really. You can just route around. We did with the Houthis with really minimal impact. And with Malacca the reroute wouldn’t even be 20 days. 110
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 18/04/2026It _may_ be a once-more-removed thing: I.e. everyone reads the article but then thinks that everyone else will only read the headline. And then has the calculation whether to go with the underlying or with the (expected) narrative. And given the meme stock experience.. the expected narrative wins 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/04/2026But the hard physical problem seems to be on the production side. You seem to can’t turn off either wells or refineries without damaging long-term output. And for that buffer I’ve heard an from 2 weeks to 2 months. The lower bound we’ve crashed long ago. The upper might still have some room 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 10/04/2026I think one missing piece is the floating buffer. Ie the typical cycle seems to have been: load oil -> sail to target area -> wait for sufficiently interesting offer -> repeat. For the amount of oil in “wait” I’ve seen speculation of hundreds of m barrels. That might ”safe” the users 110
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Depends on what you compare it to, right? Sure there is (probably) less state capacity in Iran right now than two months ago (after the protests were put down). But compared to the median expected state capacity after 3 weeks of all-out US bombardment? They are doing exceptionally well 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/03/2026But that doesn’t solve the problem. Both timing-wise, ie the pipeline building will take years not weeks. And also oil/gas is only part of the problem. There is a lot of dry-bulk that’s interrupted (think fertalizer) 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/03/2026But nukes wouldn’t solve the problem! There are enough actors that can (and are probingly willing to) degrade traditional state capacity within Iran already. That doesn’t make the transit save (enough) for economic entities! And you can’t regenerate that trust by bombing harder 120
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/03/2026That’s not necessarily clear. I’d think the world can much better deal with everything from the gulf is 10-50% more expensive, than that everything just NOT being there. But that outcome assumes acceptance of the toll booth from everyone. And .. yeah 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 20/03/2026That’s what we said after Covid. Alas 011
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 11/03/2026The average German household uses 3.5MWh per year (though that is an old and conservative number). You typically have a smallish battery with the setup, so you typically get to use ~all your production. and there are a couple of million of these things. They are in the (low) GW range 010
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 05/02/2026But that new corpus of people is significantly less effective than the current US Army. The ”interesting” question is: is there a timeframe where the institution is both sufficiently corrupt and competent at the same time 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Ich hätte überhaupt kein Problem, wenn das ohne selbst Hausarbeiten eingetippt zu haben ginge. Es ist doch sowieso so, dass die Arbeiten nur zu Bruchteilen gelesen werden 000
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Ohne Ihnen zu nahe treten zu wollen.. Sind Sie sich sicher, dass es Teil Ihrer Aufgabe sein sollte, dass Studierende schreiben? Ich würde lieber in einer Welt leben, wo Ihre Aufgabe ist Denkweisen und die Erarbeitung von Konzeptverständnissen zu lehren. 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Und b) die Wünsche ind Zwänge ihrer Studierenden ernst nehmen und auch mal zu fragen: “Bist du richtig hier?” und zu akzeptieren, dass es legitime Gründe gibt zu sagen “Nö bin ich nicht” 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Es wäre viel geholfen, wenn die Fakultäten das (berechtigte) Selbstvertrauen hätten, dass sie a) Ihren Studierenden etwas beibringen können, was mehr ist als das was Chatty und Co gerade abliefern. 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Wenn Ihr Problem ist, dass Studierende nicht lernen wollen, dann haben Sie ein viel größeres Problem. Wenn Sie Studierenden nicht klar machen können, was die davon haben diese Übung selbst zu machen. Dann haben Sie ein viel größeres Problem. 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Ich gebe Ihnen sogar das Ziel: Studierende sollte schreiben können. Aber doch bitte in der realen Welt. In der existiert KI. In der existieren LLMs. In der existieren “improve this text”-Buttons. Wie zum Teufel soll da ein sanitarisierter PC-Pool Test helfen? 100
notadifferentuser.bsky.social @notadifferentuser.bsky.social · 18/01/2026Out if curiosity (as a past for-free copy-editor): have you tried running it through an LLM? And if so, what does it do to your writing style? 100
