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Noah Smith

@noahsmith.bsky.social
518 followers 539 following 32 posts

Land surface modeller (JULES) at the University of Exeter

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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
By physics, net zero is the way we stop climate change. So ditching the term is only a gift to climate deniers. NZ is also a really helpful framing, as it doesn't leave any places of the economy where emissions can 'hide'. Agree that CCS is an unhelpful and costly distraction for now though.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Brilliant work, and a perfect rebuttal to the naysayers! My only comment would be that it would be nice if the dashboard also said the total number of heat pumps the data is taken from (rather than just proportions).
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Do the Euston tunnels leave any scope/space for a future HS2 - HS1 link? (say to make use of the current extra platform capacity at Curzon Street as an international terminus?)
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 11/03/2026
Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’
theguardian.com
Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’
Climate change committee finds move to renewable energy would also bring health, economic and security benefits Achieving the UK’s net zero target by 2050 will cost less than a single oil shock and bring health and economic benefits while insulating the country against future costs, the government’s climate advisers have forecast. Eliminating the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels by adopting renewable energy and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, would be the best and most cost-effective option for the future economy, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) found. Continue reading...
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Different Noah I think, but you're welcome :)
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Don't worry, I'm not that Noah.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Not that I agree with this approach or the values per se.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Lots of people dunking on this statement, but in context, I think by 'renewal' Tim means end of life of the gas boiler, so he has subtracted £3k (cost of new gas boiler) off of £15k (his original value for cost of brand new HP install).
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
(or at least not in an open way). Challenge is good! It shouldn't be removed due to lack of courage. Friction is bad though, so perhaps a better aim would be a more collaborative and time-bounded interaction between NA and gov.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
3) It's a good thing that the advice is expert-lead and apolitical, the issue (as you say) ultimately is that politicians need to weigh up building and nature, which they already have powers to do, so isn't solved by abolishing the source of the advice unless you don't want nature to be considered,
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Not sure this is a good take as 1) Natural England does much more than just give advice on planning 2) this isn't so much a situation like NHS England where you have duplication of effort, but mainly 3)...
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
. I. Kkoolkk. Unless n. I
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
The 'off the shelf' unit cost is more like £3.5k at the moment. Ideally you would repair rather than replace though.
midsummerwholesale.co.uk
Bosch CS2000AWF 8 R-S
8kW Monobloc heat pump. Worcester Bosch product code: 7738602279
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Or strategically be the first to licence Molten Oxide Electrolysis for direct electric primary steelmaking and impose a carbon border adjustment in steel... www.bostonmetal.com/news/boston-...
bostonmetal.com
Boston Metal Celebrates Historic Commissioning Run of MOE Green Steel Cell - Boston Metal
This multi-inert anode industrial cell de-risks our platform technology and validates scalability to achieve commercial production.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Or a switch to primary steelmaking via Molten Oxide Electrolysis www.bostonmetal.com/news/boston-...
bostonmetal.com
Boston Metal Celebrates Historic Commissioning Run of MOE Green Steel Cell - Boston Metal
This multi-inert anode industrial cell de-risks our platform technology and validates scalability to achieve commercial production.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Have you requested a correction yet?
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
To be fair, they do acknowledge: “Aardvark would not have been possible without decades of physical-model development by the community, and we are particularly indebted to ECMWF for their ERA5 dataset which is essential for training Aardvark,” said Turner.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Sure, but neither would a gas boiler, and the units themselves are not too dissimilar in cost. What we are really talking about is the initial extra outlay. Indeed, if we assume that the heat pump is being installed when a gas boiler needed replacing anyway, then this is actually less than £10k.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
£10k over 30 years is ~£330/yr, which coincidentally is almost exactly the same as the non- wholesale or policy costs in an average gas bill (distribution + operating + other = £331). Maybe the up-front costs for an individual household could be spread out as a standing charge?
nesta.org.uk
Network costs
Network costs
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Link: www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
theccc.org.uk
Sixth Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee
The Sixth Carbon Budget, provides ministers with advice on the volume of greenhouse gases the UK can emit during the period 2033-2037.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
From the 6th carbon budget: HGVs only account for 17% of surface transport emissions, so electrifying cars is the bulk of demand. Not to say that there isn't a cost though, or that shifting freight to rail wouldn't have multiple benefits.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
It's not like there hasn't been a lot of planning for it though. Maybe have a listen to @chrisstark.bsky.social taking about it here, or read one of the latest NESO reports.
omny.fm
The UK’s £200 billion plan for carbon-free power by 2030 - Zero
The UK government has pledged to achieve 95% clean power by 2030. It's an ambitious, tough goal – and even tougher to accomplish while reducing energy prices. Chris Stark, head of the nation’s Mission...
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
What was your octopus quote?
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
More importantly though, many countries have now decoupled growth and emissions, even taking into account offshoring.
ourworldindata.org
Many countries have decoupled economic growth from CO2 emissions, even if we take offshored production into account
It is possible to reduce emissions while growing the economy. But this decoupling needs to happen faster.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Aside from the lack of acknowledgement of the indigenous people, I am very much a fan of xlinks.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Xlinks may be energy colonialism, but by Morocco, not the UK. While not technically in the disputed territory of Western Sahara ('Africa's last colony'), the project would be located in the Tekna region, home to the native Sahrawi. Morocco would implicitly gain the UK's backing to ownership.
en.m.wikipedia.org
Tekna - Wikipedia
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
There are in fact no fines for manufactures failing to sell EVs, only for selling more than their fair share of ICE vehicles.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Ideally finance would step in so that everyone could reach #topofthescops levels, but it's worth leaving the door open for a mass-market low cost low disruption solution, that nevertheless achieves running costs comparable to gas through time of use tariffs (the octopus solution).
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
A good article, but there is #nopannacotta. Even with installers who know what they're doing there's always a tradeoff - achieving higher COPs means larger emitters > changing more radiators > higher up-front cost.
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 09/11/2024
Adding to the recommendations: cleaning up - @mliebreich.bsky.social and Bryony Worthington speak to interesting climate leaders (great ones in the archives), zero with @akshatrathi.bsky.social, redefining energy (investor angle), fully charged with @bobbyllew.bsky.social (more consumer focused).
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Femke Nijsse @femkenijsse.bsky.social · 25/09/2024
Highlight from IRENA's Cost of Electricity Report – Solar cost went down 12% from 2022, hydro and offshore wind by 7% and onshore by 3%. – After a small rise last year, battery prices have come down again due to oversupply and material cost www.irena.org/Publications...
irena.org
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023
The levelised cost of electricity produced from most forms of renewable power continued to fall year-on-year in 2023, with solar PV leading the cost reductions, followed by offshore wind.
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Femke Nijsse @femkenijsse.bsky.social · 23/09/2024
Our report on cascading tipping points in the green transition is out now! We investigated how a transition in one sector, helps (or hinders) the transition in other sectors. global-tipping-points.org/wp-content/u...
global-tipping-points.org
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
Would be helpful to make the comparison using a fitted curve or annual averages to smooth out France's seasonality. Nice comparison though!
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Noah Smith @noahsmith.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
From the shape of the curves it looks like the difference of the first time point from itself (which would be zero) hasn't been plotted, so the curves start from the next point.
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Peat Mothership @peatmothership.bsky.social · 10/11/2023
PIs and project partners from many EU countries meeting online today for the 1.5 year UKRI @peatmothership.bsky.social progress meeting and workshops. Really encouraging to see how peatland science is progressing. #PeatlandScience #Peat #Peat&BSky
Scientists meeting for the PeatMothership 1.5 progress meeting and workshops
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