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Reposted by Noah Kaufman

Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 10/10/2026

Many homes in the northeast & in Alaska are heated with heating oil- basically diesel fuel. Now because of the administration’s war & energy policies, families are going to pay a lot more to heat their homes this winter. Our paper shows how folks heat their homes: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Map of primary heating fuel by US census tract, from our paper https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2753-3751/ae69e6/meta

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A carbon tax on oil would only really make sense as part of a broader climate policy across sectors and sustained over a long time horizon. So analogizing the current situation to a carbon tax is a bit silly and misleading IMO

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

We started Resilient Energy Economies because we don't know enough about effective policies to support fossil fuel-reliant economies through a transition. Evaluating existing policies is a key way to change that. That's the topic of our webinar later today- join us! www.rff.org/events/webin...

rff.org

Resilient Energy Economies | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Local, Regional, and Federal Efforts to Support Fossil Fuel-Dependent Communities

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Given her roles in the academic, policymaking, and philanthropy worlds, you could ask her how she sees climate policy research influencing policymakers, grant making, and NGOs. Is this a healthy ecosystem? If not how can it be fixed?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

What @ccallahan45.bsky.social said. Individual studies in this literature are often incredibly important/useful. It's too bad they are often discussed primarily in the context of (futile) attempts to estimate SCCs.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Check out our essay here, as well as the many others in this new @rooseveltinstitute.org compilation on green statecraft (I'm making my way through them and will post others as I go!) rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

rooseveltinstitute.org

Fix Modeling and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Why U.S. economic models must account for climate change and the clean energy transition to improve policymaking, forecasting, and public investment decisions.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

And we recommend broader changes in the understanding among policymakers and technocrats of what economic analysis is for.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

We highlight some key specific barriers, like the outdated (and inexcusable) continued reliance of Kaldor-Hicks benefit-cost analysis.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Thanks to the @rooseveltinstitute.org for publishing my essay with @hboushey.bsky.social that describes why the federal government has failed to usefully incorporate climate change and the energy transition into economic modeling, based on our experiences at the White House 🧵

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

We just published this report with some lessons from the birthplace of the industry media.rff.org/documents/Re...

media.rff.org

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

What can oil-reliant communities learn from the OG oil community, Titusville and the surrounding Oil Region in Pennsylvania?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

I’ve been told by folks who helped develop the energy system portion that it was never intended to look plausible, but rather just provide a useful signal to the climate modelers. Which made sense to me.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

A scenario in itself can’t be wrong, of course

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Climate advocates have tried to motivate action with precise projections of future harms. But it's actually the deep uncertainty about how bad things could get that makes the strongest case for action. Jason Bordoff and I wrote about this in @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/30/s...

foreignpolicy.com

Doomsday Climate Scenarios Were Wrong. That Doesn’t Help Europe.

Recent scientific reassessments strengthen the case for rapid climate action rather than weaken it.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Communities with waterway restoration in mined areas had 6 percentage points (!) more population growth than otherwise similar communities whose waterways remained impaired, according to new research by Jeremy Weber, Max Harleman et al. www.resilientenergyeconomies.org/publications

resilientenergyeconomies.org

Publications

We’re helping fossil fuel–dependent communities across the United States develop strategies to support their local economies.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

The next installment of our results webinars for Resilient Energy Economies initiative grantees is about to start. Please join us: www.rff.org/events/webin...

rff.org

Resilient Energy Economies | Local Perspectives on Economic Futures: The View from Oil and Gas Communities

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

I don't think it's possible to navigate the challenges of the energy transition without a realistic understanding of the economic benefits of fossil fuels (on both the consumer and producer sides)

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

At some point I’d like to live somewhere with such a coherent climate strategy that people debate other energy policy issues on their own merits instead of thru a climate lens. Too much to ask?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

With most industries journalists know not to pass along advocates’ propaganda as fact but for whatever reason this happens all the time with energy efficiency (EE programs are sometimes expensive and sometimes cheap)

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

One thing you might consider adding is the issue of public revenues, which I think is just as important as jobs. Many places where schools (etc) are funded with revenues from fossil industries.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Second, she notably doesn't mention cap-and-invest in the article, despite the state having developed extensive plans for the policy that's the cornerstone of the state's strategy. Is she committed to it or not?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

My sense (maybe wrong) is that the biggest reason her opponents won't come to the table isn't misguided thinking about cheap/easy emissions reductions (although there is some of that) but they simply don't trust her enough to lift the court order. She needs to build trust back.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

First, she should take some responsibility. She's 100% right about external factors like offshore wind and Trump. But c'mon, the state bears some responsibility for failing to issues regulations 7 years after the climate law passed -- own the failure.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

I think this is actually a pretty good climate policy article from a politician, with generally accurate info and reasonable opinions. I remain utterly baffled why the two sides can't come to a reasonable compromise in a state like NY. Do your jobs! 2 issues with the oped🧵

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Listening to today’s Daily on this article, I don’t get the sense the reporters understand the absurdity of Roberts’ claim about a regulation to reduce coal to ~25-30% of power generation by 2030.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

By the time Roberts wrote WV v EPA we were already below the CPP targets and he was still using the same ridiculous estimates

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

Wild symptom of a broken epistemic environment: in 2015 the evidence showed the Clean Power Plan to be a weak, inexpensive regulation. But climate opponents said it would have huge costs, and climate advocates said it would have huge benefits. And the Chief Justice was fooled.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

The diverse coalition against useful emissions targets: -Opponents of climate policy -Advocates who insist on infeasible targets -Economists who think we can value damages instead -Advocates who think we just need to make clean energy cheap And they’re all wrong 🙃

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

Exactly, very similar. Targets can be a useful/essential part of a long term strategy if they are ambitious and feasible. But if people aren’t going to use them that way, they can be counterproductive.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

Fights in the northeast over emissions targets remind me of fights with my kids when they’re already late for school. Governors: We can’t make it to school on time! Advocates: You must make it to school on time! Meanwhile, nobody’s making a plan to get to school… www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/c...

nytimes.com

Northeast States Set Big Climate Goals. Now Those Plans Are in Trouble.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

To be fair sometimes we get pandemic

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Howarth and Jacobson respond to Zeke's post. They ignore his substantive argument about the merits of GWP-20, focusing instead on the importance of near-term climate action. But the case for GWP-20 shouldn't rest whether we like the policy outcomes it produces. www.howarthlab.org/docs/GWP20_i...

howarthlab.org

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Great new Resilient Energy Economies policy brief from scholars at the U of Wyoming about fiscal shocks to energy producing states: cdn.prod.website-files.com/65f9f863036e...

cdn.prod.website-files.com

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

But my view is that framing industrial policy as geographic distribution policy would sharpen the debate considerably. Is there a well-defined reason that supporting this domestic industry would strengthen the national economy? And are those benefits worth the costs?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Industrial policy interventions may shrink the global pie. That's sometimes a cost worth paying for economic competitiveness. And sometimes it isn't.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Didn't East Asian economies grow in large part due to government-backed domestic industries? If the world is transitioning to electric vehicles, aren't countries like the U.S. justified in supporting their auto industry through that transition rather than simply conceding it?

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Industrial policy can be thought of as the same idea applied across geography rather than income. It's distribution policy for a global economy. And yes, it's selfish rather than altruistic. But countries are sometimes justified in being selfish.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Economists recognize that efficiency isn't everything, and governments have a legitimate role in distribution. We usually illustrate this with income: progressive taxation and transfers exist because the distribution of resources across people matters.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

My point is that debates over the efficiency benefits and costs of industrial policy are a sideshow.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

For example, we should support innovation, and in some cases supporting domestic firms generate innovation and knowledge spillovers that outweigh the distortions. But that's not a reliable basis for industrial policy development.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Externalities and public goods have well-established policy rationales of their own. We have tools to address them. And as industrial policy skeptics point out, industrial policy interventions often harm economic efficiency as well.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Proponents of industrial policy often justify it by pointing to its benefits for innovation, pollution reduction, and national security. But we don't need industrial policy strategies to justify those interventions.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Economists often divide policy interventions into the buckets of efficiency (the size of the pie) and distribution (how the pie is divided). Industrial policy belongs mainly in the distribution bucket, and most debates get muddled because people put it in the efficiency bucket.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Great discussion here, including the age-old question of how to properly scope industrial policy. I have a view on this that I've recently learned is unpopular (but, as it turns out, is also entirely correct 😊) A 🧵 www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/daleep-singh...

energypolicy.columbia.edu

Daleep Singh on the Need for a US Industrial Policy Playbook - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP

Hear in-depth conversations with the world’s top energy and climate leaders from government, business, academia, and civil society.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

And lastly, take advantage of being in a place where a reasonable compromise on aggressive and cost-effectivce climate policy is actully achievable. This is rare! Don't squander it! What am I missing?

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