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Nilanthi Samaranayake

@nilanthis.bsky.social
30 followers 38 following 40 posts

Analyzes Indian Ocean security; writing book on Smaller South Asian states in major power rivalry. Visiting Expert, US Institute of Peace; Adjunct Fellow, East-West Center in Washington; and Adjunct Professor, NESA Center. nilanthis.com

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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
See the cover of my forthcoming book, Smaller South Asian Countries. The book spotlights the 5 smaller states bordering India in South Asia: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, & Sri Lanka, and analyzes their ties w/India, China, & US, among other topics. Pre-order @bloomsburyacademic.bsky.social!
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Reposted by Nilanthi Samaranayake
ISDP Sweden @isdp-sweden.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
🔎Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka Can China's engagement with Sri Lanka be characterized as being focused on development or long-term political and maritime strategy? www.isdp.eu/publication/... @nilanthis.bsky.social @tabitarosendal.bsky.social
isdp.eu
Silk Cage Webinar Report-VI: Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka - Institute for Security and Development Policy
This Silk Cage webinar report covers various experts opinion on China's strategic influence and grip over Sri Lanka.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Pleased to participate in the @isdp-sweden.bsky.social webinar on Sri Lanka's relations with China alongside a distinguished panel. See a summary of my theoretical framework (p.10) on how Sri Lanka as a smaller state manages India-China competition: www.isdp.eu/publication/...
isdp.eu
Silk Cage Webinar Report-VI: Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka - Institute for Security and Development Policy
This Silk Cage webinar report covers various experts opinion on China's strategic influence and grip over Sri Lanka.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Pleased to speak with Junaid Kathju of @scmpnews.bsky.social about Bangladesh's relations with China: www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Bangladesh draws closer to China in ‘political chessboard’ to balance India ties
Dhaka’s pursuit of closer defence and trade cooperation with Beijing could further complicate its complex ties with New Delhi, analysts say.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
My latest for @lowyinstitute.bsky.social on Iran serving as a catalyst for potential shifts in US strategy toward the Indian Ocean, as in 1979. Thanks to @danielflitton.bsky.social for the opportunity. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
1979 all over again? Iran and US Indian Ocean strategy transformed
The last time Iran shocked Washington, it built 50 years of US presence.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I'm looking forward to speaking about Sri Lanka-China relations and Indian Ocean security for smaller island states at the August 31 webinar hosted by @isdp-sweden.bsky.social in Stockholm, organized by Dr. Jagannath Panda. Register: www.isdp.eu/event/silk-c...
isdp.eu
Silk Cage Series – Webinar VI: Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka - Institute for Security and Development Policy
Webinar on August 31: Silk Cage Series – Webinar VI: Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Pleased to speak with @khushboorazdan.bsky.social at @scmpnews.bsky.social about the Chagos Islands/Diego Garcia, Mauritius as a small state, US-India dynamics in the Indian Ocean, and the idea of purchasing IOR territory: www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
scmp.com
A military base, a displaced people and Trump’s China fears: Burnham’s Chagos test
Britain’s new prime minister’s first challenge may lie in the Indian Ocean where the future of a US-British facility remains unresolved.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I spoke to @khushboorazdan.bsky.social at @southchinamorningpostrss.newsmast.social.ap.brid.gy about surprising US activism in the Indian Ocean region over the past year, despite the longstanding US pursuit of security burden-sharing with India in the IOR. www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
scmp.com
How Trump’s Iran ‘own goal’ is hitting US strategy to contain Chinese influence
An Indian-backed port long seen as a counterweight to Beijing is now caught in the crossfire of the US war against Iran.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Pleased to comment on India's Great Nicobar project in Nayan Seth's informative article for the @southchinamorningpostrss.newsmast.social.ap.brid.gy: www.scmp.com/news/china/d... cc @eastwestcenter.bsky.social
scmp.com
What India’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ near Malacca means for its China ties
Uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran conflict has New Delhi moving on US$10 billion plan to transform Great Nicobar Island.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
My new piece for @eastwestcenter.bsky.social on US relations with Bangladesh and Nepal under new governments. We've seen early and active US diplomacy, and there are opportunities for economic and defense cooperation going forward. #SmallerSouthAsian countries www.eastwestcenter.org/publications...
eastwestcenter.org
New Governments, New Opportunities: US Relations with Bangladesh and Nepal Three Months In
New Governments, New Opportunities: US Relations with Bangladesh and Nepal Three Months In by Nilanthi Samaranayake
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Thrilled to begin my stay at the @giga-hamburg.de Institute for Asian Studies in Germany as a visiting researcher. I'll focus on the study of Indian Ocean security & smaller states. I'm also interested in understanding Germany's interests in the IOR & South Asia. giga-hamburg.de/en/the-giga/...
giga-hamburg.de
GIGA Institute for Asian Studies | Research & Analysis
Explore GIGA's Institute for Asian Studies, your source for in-depth research, analysis, and insights on political, economic, and social trends in Asia.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Pleased to be back on A'ndre Gonawela's Burn Bag podcast to discuss recent developments among Smaller South Asian (SSA) countries & in Indian Ocean security. Of note, my forthcoming book will examine the SSA countries and their relations with these large powers. URL: www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1NB...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Video of @eastwestcenter.bsky.social webinar: My thoughts on US relations with both Nepal and Bangladesh after elections and areas of cooperation. Check out the other speakers as well: Kamal Dev Bhattarai, Zillur Rahman, and Aparna Pande. www.eastwestcenter.org/events/after...
eastwestcenter.org
After Elections in South Asia: Bangladesh, Nepal, and a New US Approach Amid Regional Uncertainty and Competition
Join the East-West Center in Washington for a webinar on March 31 titled, "After Elections in South Asia: Bangladesh, Nepal, and a New US Approach Amid Regional Uncertainty and Competition".
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Join @eastwestcenter.bsky.social's 31 March webinar! We'll examine recent elections in Nepal & Bangladesh, plus implications for relations with the US amid regional uncertainty. With Kamal Dev Bhattarai, Zillur Rahman, Aparna Pande, Nicholas Hamisevicz, & me. www.eastwestcenter.org/events/after...
eastwestcenter.org
After Elections in South Asia: Bangladesh, Nepal, and a New US Approach Amid Regional Uncertainty and Competition
Join the East-West Center in Washington for a webinar on March 31 titled, "After Elections in South Asia: Bangladesh, Nepal, and a New US Approach Amid Regional Uncertainty and Competition".
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Quoted in The Sunday Morning by Asiri Fernando about the Iran conflict, Sri Lanka's supply chain resilience, the Colombo Security Conclave for Indian Ocean regional resilience, & the Sri Lanka Navy's command of CTF-154 in Combined Maritime Forces in the western IO: www.themorning.lk/articles/Oil...
themorning.lk
Maritime chokepoints: Sri Lanka needs to act on lessons learnt
The latest conflict in West Asia, particularly with the closure of the critical energy choke point, the Strait of Hormuz, has once again highlighted Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities to supply chain disrupt...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
My new article for CMS examines the disconnect between the US call to allies and partners to pursue burden-sharing, and surprising US *burden-shouldering* in the Indian Ocean over the past year: Yemen, Iran, India-Pakistan, & maritime interdiction ops. centerformaritimestrategy.org/publications...
centerformaritimestrategy.org
US Burden-Shouldering? Surprising Activism in the Indian Ocean - Center for Maritime Strategy
The current US military operation against Iran in the Indian Ocean region—including most recently a submarine torpedo attack—has not come out of the blue. Since its early months, the second Trump admi...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Quoted on Sri Lanka's diplomacy & maritime security work post-IRIS Dena kill & crew interned: “The situation is more difficult now because Sri Lanka already has so much on its plate; focusing on economic recovery after its 2022 default and Cyclone Ditwah last year” www.examiner.media/dena-sinking...
examiner.media
Dena sinking: to investigate, or not?
After the US torpedoed the Dena, Sri Lanka had to decide on letting the Bushehr dock. Amid a whirlpool of competing considerations, Sri Lanka took nearly two days to grant the ship entry. The commerci...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
My new piece for @defensenews.bsky.social on Diego Garcia. The outlook for the Chagos treaty is uncertain in the latest UK-US discussions, but the US needs to maintain access to the Indian Ocean base despite the form of the UK-Mauritius dispute resolution. www.defensenews.com/opinion/2026...
defensenews.com
Diego Garcia base access: Getting past the misinformation
Opinion: There have been many twists and turns over the years in this dispute, including Trump’s differences with Starmer over Greenland and Iran.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
My gratitude to the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) for the invitation to participate in a roundtable discussion on "Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific: US Strategy and Bangladesh's Strategic Engagement in the Bay of Bengal" last month in Dhaka.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
I participated in the Sasakawa Peace Foundation's Northeast Indian Ocean Regional Dialogue in Bangladesh. I spoke about smaller IOR countries engaging the US on its priorities (e.g., business and security burden-sharing) and US strategy toward the IOR. Thanks to Dr. Emadul Islam for the invitation.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
I spoke with Junaid Kathjoo of @scmpnews.bsky.social about Bangladesh's international outreach & India's approach to Sri Lanka, Maldives & BD. Discussed my framework for Smaller South Asian states which manage their powerful neighbor while engaging India's competitors. www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Why India is losing ground over Bangladesh and Myanmar to regional rivals
Pakistan and China have been drawing closer to Bangladesh and Myanmar in areas such as defence and trade at India’s expense, analysts say.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Pleased to speak with Mohammad Asif Khan of the @bsindia.bsky.social about Indian Ocean island countries, India's maritime capacity building, and smaller states' pursuit of a wide range of development options including China. www.business-standard.com/blueprint-de...
business-standard.com
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
I enjoyed speaking at @stimsoncenter.bsky.social webinar on an eventful 2025 in Smaller South Asian (SSA) countries: Nepal's political upheaval, Sri Lanka's cyclone, Bangladesh's new foreign policy, Maldives-India ties, & SSA entrepreneurial ties with a new US admin: www.stimson.org/event/south-...
stimson.org
South Asia 2025: A Year of Shocks and Shifts • Stimson Center
Regional experts unpack one of the most eventful years in recent history for South Asia, where the geopolitical landscape underwent rapid, often unexpected, transformation.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
I discussed challenges facing smaller Indian Ocean countries & offered ideas for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, & Maldives to consider in the Bay of Bengal and wider IOR amid US calls for greater burden-sharing. Thanks to Emadul Islam and Sasakawa Foundation for the invite www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K8P...
youtube.com
A live event organized by the Ocean Policy Research Institute at the COP30 Virtual Ocean Pavilion
YouTube video by Global Ocean Forum
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
I'm looking forward to speaking about Indian Ocean security and island states for the Sasakawa Peace Foundation virtual seminar. Thanks to Dr. Emadul Islam for the invitation. Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Nepal is the third of 5 #SmallerSouthAsian countries neighboring India to protest and oust leaders (Bangladesh in 2024 & Sri Lanka in 2022). I examine structural factors that contribute to domestic instability: economic transition in international orgs & strategic competition btw India, China, & US
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Pleased to be interviewed on Nepal, Bangladesh, & Smaller South Asian countries in recent pubs: -In June on Bangladesh-India Relations: Challenges and Opportunities by FPRC Journal: drive.google.com/file/d/1vsZ9... -In Sept on Nepal by Saurav Raj Pant: binduoped.com/2025/09/14/n... #SmallStates
binduoped.com
Nepal’s Foreign Policy Options as a Small State
The interim government’s foreign policy toward international partners will ideally enable the transition process.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
New Indian Ocean pub: I contributed an essay to Asia Policy's book review roundtable on Darshana Baruah's must-read on #IndianOcean security. Thanks to the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) for the invitation. All 6 roundtable essays are free to download: www.nbr.org/publication/...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
I enjoyed speaking at the ORF-CSIS #JakartaFuturesForum2025 on the panel, Securing the Blue Commons: Cooperation for an Indo-Pacific Maritime Order. I discussed a multipolar Indo-Pacific & space for agency amid the US pursuit of greater burden-sharing. #IndianOcean cc @eastwestcenter.bsky.social
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Looking forward to the #JakartaFuturesForum2025 next week, organized by Observer Research Foundation, CSIS Indonesia, and the Indian Embassy in Jakarta. Details: www.orfonline.org/forums/jakar... cc @eastwestcenter.bsky.social
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
I spoke with Junaid Kathju of the @scmpnews.bsky.social about India-Maldives relations and President Muizzu's foreign policy approach amid Prime Minister Modi's historic state visit to the Indian Ocean island nation. cc @eastwestcenter.bsky.social www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
‘India in’: Modi’s visit, aid pledge reshape Maldives ties as China wavers
India’s willingness to support the Maldives through its economic woes has helped shift Male’s stance to one of cooperation, analysts say.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
I appreciated the opportunity to discuss Bangladesh and its foreign relations at @eastwestcenter.bsky.social in Washington, along with Satu Limaye, Aparna Pande, and Ambassador Farooq Sobhan. I focused on US-Bangladesh relations and considerations for the US approach. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cFT...
youtube.com
Bangladesh's Foreign Policy and US, China and India in a Fluid Indo-Pacific
YouTube video by East-West Center in Washington
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
My thoughts for the @scmpnews.bsky.social's Dimuthu Attanayake on Sri Lanka and Smaller South Asian (SSA) countries' renewed challenge of navigating the India-Pakistan conflict amid recent hostilities. cc @eastwestcenter.bsky.social www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Sri Lanka walks the tightrope between US-backed India and China-backed Pakistan
As a small state lodged between superpowers, Sri Lanka cannot afford to take sides in the India-Pakistan conflict, analysts say.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
My new piece for @perryworldhouse.bsky.social on the future of US minilateralism in the Indian Ocean. I mostly discuss the Quad & engagement since the Trump 2.0 admin. Also I'm tracking what the US wants to burden-share/shift vs. burden-shoulder in the IOR. perryworldhouse.upenn.edu/news-and-ins...
perryworldhouse.upenn.edu
The Future of Minilateralism and Indian Ocean Security - Perry World House
When considering the future of Indo-Pacific security and minilateralism in the Indian Ocean, we should first clarify which minilaterals we are talking about, what they are working on, and to what end....
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
I enjoyed speaking at this @eastwestcenter.bsky.social event on South Asia with Satu Limaye, Aparna Pande, & Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury. I previewed some book project findings about the Smaller South Asian states & how they manage relations with India, China, & the US. www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFOP...
youtube.com
India, China, and US Influence in South Asia at a Crossroads
YouTube video by East-West Center in Washington
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Read my new article at @perryworldhouse.bsky.social: "U.S.-India Maritime Futures: The Upper Limits of Security Burden-sharing in the Indian Ocean." I provide a history of US strategy toward the Indian Ocean & considerations for the Trump admin's NSS & NDS perryworldhouse.upenn.edu/news-and-ins...
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
I'm looking forward to speaking on India, China, & the US in South Asia, organized by @satulimaye.bsky.social at the East-West Center in Washington, w/Aparna Pande & Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury. Register to join in-person on April 8: www.eastwestcenter.org/events/india... @eastwestcenter.bsky.social
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
I spoke with @scmpnews.bsky.social's Junaid Kathju about India’s naval ties with Mauritius, facilities development in Agaléga, & its diplomacy in the Chagos Islands dispute. All signify the importance of this special relationship for India in its Indian Ocean strategy. www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
Is India’s embrace of Mauritius aimed at countering China’s Indian Ocean goals?
An ‘enhanced strategic partnership’ between India and Mauritius was announced during PM Narendra Modi’s visit to the island nation.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Thrilled to share my book chapter, "US Naval Strategy in the Indian Ocean," in a new edited volume featuring scholars from around the region. I identify 3 US objectives in the IOR, their implementation, & wildcards to consider for future maritime strategy and policy. nsc.anu.edu.au/sites/defaul...
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Reposted by Nilanthi Samaranayake
Dhruva Jaishankar @dhruvajaishankar.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Some thoughts on EU-India relations:
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Reposted by Nilanthi Samaranayake
Frank O'Donnell @frank11285.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
ICYMI, the video of our @apln.network panel discussion on Taiwan, US-Taiwan relations, and cross-Strait issues in 2025 is now up!
youtube.com
Trump and the Cross-Strait Status Quo – views from Taiwan, ASEAN and the US
YouTube video by Asia-Pacific Leadership Network
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Reposted by Nilanthi Samaranayake
Sarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
My latest article with CAPT (USN ret.) Christopher P. Carlson just dropped! We discuss the technical, tactical and some strategic implications of 🇨🇳 China developing an innovative, hybrid "nuclear battery" submarine (an "SSn", as Chris dubs it), whose prototype sank in Wuhan last summer. #Type041
cimsec.org
Neither Fish nor Fowl: China’s Development of a Nuclear Battery AIP Submarine | Center for International Maritime Security
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
I'm looking forward to speaking tomorrow at GWU about Indian Ocean security, India-China maritime dynamics, and the Smaller South Asian (SSA) countries.
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Nilanthi Samaranayake @nilanthis.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Mauritius Prime Minister Ramgoolam on President Trump's comments about the UK's Chagos Islands draft agreement, including the Diego Garcia military base: “It looks positive. But we will wait and see what are the final proposals.” qiraatafrican.com/en/15445/mau...
qiraatafrican.com
Mauritius prime minister says Trump comments on Chagos deal positive - Qiraat Africa
Mauritius' Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam has described as "positive" U.S. President Donald Trump's comments that signalled Washington would likely back a
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