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Note that even if Reggie Gilliam and Austin Hooper qualify, any 7th round compensatory pick the Bills and Patriots would be eligible for would likely miss the 32 pick limit.

One other team that could potentially get a 2027 compensatory pick is the Patriots. It all depends on whether Reggie Gilliam qualifies against them. If not, this is their chart.

An absolutely proper decision. 49ers/Seahawks is way too good of a game to not be the featured late doubleheader game. And the NFL/Fox were likely gambling on a big market Giants/Commanders showdown to lead early, but that's now turned into the 2015 NFL Draft top 2 QB fest.

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Still a 5th rounder. My guess as of now is that Wan'Dale Robinson needs at least 70% of the offensive snaps to get back into 4th round range.

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Obviously, with alternate history this game could have taken many different paths altogether, so take this analysis with plenty of caveats. But they call it a game of inches in multiple ways....

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Meanwhile, if the Broncos kicked the 1st one (or got the 1st 2 pointer but not the 2nd), then it comes down to a 2 point attempt after the Hufanga pick six. Make that, and overtime would get sealed. Miss it, and the likely Rams regulation win odds described above trigger.

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Going for 2 twice ended up being the only way to seal a Broncos regulation win. But if they failed the 1st one, the only way to avoid a Rams regulation win needed a LAR 2 point failure after the Mumpfield TD *and* a DEN 2 point success after the Nix TD. Not great DEN odds…

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Should Sean Payton have gone for 2 on Sunday night? Here's a flowchart of how I think the scenarios could have played out. My gut in real time said it was a no brainer to go for 2, but perhaps it ended up being a high reward but high risk decision.

Meanwhile, for Vikings observers...this is about as close as it gets. MIN fans should root for Klint Kubiak to keep feeding him snaps--it looks like 60% is a reasonable minimum to aim for.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Jaylen Watson injury obviously hurts for the Rams. But it could hurt the Chiefs as well, as missing snaps could cause KC's 2027 compensatory pick for his departure to LA to fall from the 4th round to the 5th round.

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The Vikings swapped a 4th and a 5th in exchange for a 6th to move up just one spot in the 2024 NFL Draft for JJ McCarthy. They now recoup a 5th in trading him to the Giants.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Broncos finally end the longest active drought they've had against beating another team. Until tonight, they hadn't beaten the Rams since 2002. Unless I'm missing some other team, I think the new team that replaces LA is the Ravens, last defeated by Denver in 2015.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Due to an injury to PJ Locke, this now gets the 49ers on the 2027 compensatory picks board for the first time, as a 7th rounder for Jordan Elliott going to Nashville supplants the Broncos for the Mr. Irrelevant pick for now.

Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Thus, this is what the Giants' 2027 compensatory picks cancellation would look like if that holds. Cor'Dale Flott opens up instead, due to the Giants signing Isaiah Likely to now cancel out Wan'Dale Robinson.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Wan'Dale Robinson played considerably fewer snaps in Week 2, to the point where the compensatory picks program downgraded his contract to the 5th round. Not sure if this will be an anomaly or a trend for him.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I'm glad that the Broncos are high on being willing to do in season extensions. Obviously data points are being entered in real time that make matters more complex, but it's not good to completely take a tool out of the box if it could be useful to the team.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

There was an alternate history where Joe Thomas gets traded to Denver in 2015 to cover for Ryan Clady's season ending injury. That would have gotten him a much deserved ring, avoided playing in this disaster in 2016, and the Broncos wouldn't have been able to draft Paxton Lynch.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

2027 compensatory picks projection after 1 week of snaps. Changes: •LAC: 4th⬆️3rd (Oweh) •KC: 5th⬆️4th (Watson) •BUF: 5th⬆️4th (Edwards) •GB: 4th⬇️5th (Doubs) •BAL: 6th⬇️7th (Kolar to Ricard) •MIA:➕7th (Bailey) •CIN: ➖7th (Volson)

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

But two other Falcons to keep an eye on for compensatory picks are Cameron Thomas & Samson Ebukam. They got 51% & 58% of the snaps as they fill the holes left behind by Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. at EDGE. Later this week we'll see if they get to the qualification bubble.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

There was an outside chance that Da'Shawn Hand could have cancelled out a 2027 compensatory pick to the Falcons if he had played enough snaps in 2026. In a way that no one wanted to see, that will not happen.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The Broncos wisely got Patrick Surtain II extended before the CB market exploded. Can they also fit in Riley Moss & Ja'Quan McMillian to the budget? Well, the Patriots are fitting in 3 CBs, as follows: •Christian Gonzalez: $33.75M APY •Carlton Davis: $18M •Marcus Jones: $12M

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The Packers did here what I think is more practical in structuring roster bonuses that are due early in the league year, instead of agreeing to injury only vesting guarantees that can give an incentive to bench players if things go wrong.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Note that in OTC's database, we only classify contracts as extensions if they were signed before the previous contract expired. Thus, this does not include contracts aided by tags or tenders, or contracts agreed upon after free agency started.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Number of rookie contract extensions that occurred between the Raiders extending Hunter Renfrow & Michael Mayer: •11: BUF •9: HOU/DET/GB •8: NE/DAL/PHI •7: SEA/SF/PIT •6: MIA/BAL/JAX •5: DEN/NYJ/ARI/ATL •4: CAR/CHI/MIN/NO/CIN/LAC •3: TEN/LAR/IND/WAS/TB/KC/CLE •2: NYG

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Next up, I take a look at the possibility of extending Marvin Mims. I wrongly worried for a bit of finding a good comparable to his career, but as it turns out, Rashid Shaheed's career arc is very close.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Baker Mayfield lands right on the $55M APY firewall that only Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott has surpassed. CJ Stroud could also be another possible contender to breach it, along with the 2026 rookie class quartet of Maye/Nix/Williams/Daniels.

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You can take a look at the Bucs' spending in their history right here: overthecap.com/historical-team-spen…

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The most money anyone has earned from the Bucs is Mike Evans, at almost $155M. Depending on the cash flow of this new contract, Baker Mayfield is likely to surpass this by the end of 2027, at the latest.

I always find it charming that teams stress their depth chart is always "unofficial" even though they are the official source. "Unofficial" is clearly being used as a euphemism for "We don't want to publish a depth chart but we're being forced to.".

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Looks like PJ Locke could be pushing for snaps from Malik Hooker, even with Caleb Downs emerging as a starting rookie. That could make the difference as to whether the Broncos' 7th round 2027 compensatory pick from Locke going to Dallas makes the 32 pick limit or not.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

As I start to look at a few possible extensions for the Broncos before the regular season starts, consider the safety depth chart: There are 5 currently on the active roster. 4 are slated to be free agents of some sort next season. A bit concerning.

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Broncos fans will find much to like about the preseason ELWAY projections. But there's good stuff in here for all NFL watchers. Great work by Nate as always, give it a look.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

This is an excellent game going on in Eugene. Next week, Boise State should be ranked even if they lose, and Oregon should not fall much at all in the rankings if they lose.

Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Also, while you do want to be player heavy with nominees, more than one coach should be allowed to become finalists. The current logjam there is that Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan should be Hall of Famers, and it's bad that one of them will have to wait another year.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

You can see the whole list here: overthecap.com/cap-dollars-by-colle… Conferences have been updated for the latest crazy wave of realignment. Can someone tell Northern Illinois and Sacramento State that they're in the wrong conferences and need to switch places?

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

With cutdowns mostly handled and college football commencing, here's the Top 25 schools by cap dollars allocated to 2026:

Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

I don't know what the Broncos need to change--hire different scouts that know tight end well, alter how the current staff is evaluating the position, place a higher priority on salary/draft capital. But they simply have to do better at this position.

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Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

So this opens up the possibility of becoming a repeat of Greg Dulcich, a tight end Denver gave up on that found better performance in Miami. I certainly will wish Justin Joly well, but this remains a less than stellar look for the Broncos at getting TE talent.

Nick Korte @nickkorte.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

I am confused as to what the wire is saying with these two Packers trades. I don't have GB with an extra 2028 7th rounder beyond their own, and the wire does not distinguish which one came from which team.

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And indeed, the Texans got another 2027 7th from the 49ers that could have been used for Nathan Thomas instead. And this could either be SF's own, or KC's from the Skyy Moore trade. x.com/AdamSchefter/status/209416680…

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The 7th rounder the Cowboys are getting for Nathan Thomas could be the Patriots', which the Texans got in the Marte Mapu trade. Their original 7th went to the Browns in the Cam Robinson trade. However, the Jarret Patterson trade could provide an alternative.

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Aaron Donald wouldn't be available for games against the 49ers, Giants, Broncos, and Eagles if this move was made.

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Tight end will need to be addressed in the 2027 rookie class *and* veteran free agency, barring some very unexpected surprise during 2026. Again.

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Justin Joly not even making it out of his first training camp is extremely disappointing. The Broncos' scouting department has been excellent...except for tight end. They really need to completely revamp what they're doing at that position, because it isn't working.