Reposted by Ned Beauman
Ned Beauman
@nedbeauman.bsky.social
261 followers 23 following 3 posts
Author of five novels including Venomous Lumpsucker, winner of the 2023 Arthur C. Clarke Award. www.nedbeauman.co.uk
Author of five novels including Venomous Lumpsucker, winner of the 2023 Arthur C. Clarke Award. www.nedbeauman.co.uk
![Feb 2024: "I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be."
Wrong4
March 2024: "Have We Reached Peak AI?"; another prediction that hallucinations mean that AI progress is limited to then-current levels
Wrong
April 2024: "As I previously warned, artificial intelligence companies are running out of data ..."; another prediction that models can't improve because there's no more data
Wrong
June 2024: OpenAI growth is stalling (with the implication it will continue to stall), which will lead to some kind of collapse of OpenAI
Wrong (it could be the case that OpenAI will collapse but, if so, it won't be due to any kind of growth stall from 2024)
July 2024: "Generative AI, as I said back in March, is peaking, if it hasn't already peaked. It cannot do much more than it is currently doing, other than doing more of it faster with some new inputs"
Wrong
July 2024: "Generative AI models aren’t getting more energy-efficient, nor are they getting more “powerful” in a way that would increase their functionality, nor are they even capable of automating things on their own [July 2024]"
Wrong5
August 2024: "generative AI is a dead-end technology that has peaked”
Wrong
August 2024: re-iteration that the AI bubble has 3 quarters to prove itself (from March 2024) or there will be a collapse
Wrong6
September 2024: "o1 shows that OpenAI is both desperate and out of ideas", with a re-iteration of the idea that models can't improve due to lack of data
Wrong
Oct 2024: OpenAI's forecast of $3.7B revenue in 2024 and $11.6B in 2025 and $100B in 2029 are absurd, "a statement so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud"
Wrong (2025 goal exceeded, 2029 TBD but not an egregious financial crime level of implausible)
Oct 2024: "[OpenAI revenue] growth is already slowing…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2mrgzk6xlemfv6yugn644xxy/bafkreigvfeplyc2h64aigu3v7bryiwedhemivwghrxyqyji4nuqs347tde)