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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Insightful new study on Colorado’s West Slope Basins! Using a novel model, it shows how small climate shifts may lead to a drier regime where extreme droughts become routine, impacting local water needs and downstream deliveries to Lake Powell. multisectordynamics.org/2024/11/14/e...

multisectordynamics.org

Exploring the Spatially Compounding Multi-Sectoral Drought Vulnerabilities in Colorado’s West Slope River Basins

David F. Gold, Rohini S. Gupta, and Patrick M. Reed Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract The state of …

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 06/11/2024

Researchers have developed an uncertainty-informed method to select CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) for impact modeling. With CMIP6’s large model archive, selecting models that preserve the full uncertainty range in temperature, precipitation, and more is crucial. multisectordynamics.org?p=13071

multisectordynamics.org

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract Ea…

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 23/10/2024

Water management (WM) in Texas plays a key role in shaping hydrological drought dynamics. A new study shows WM reduces drought frequency but increases duration and severity in many areas. Impacts vary by season, with attenuation in summer and intensification in winter/spring.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 16/10/2024

New study reveals how varying population projections can dramatically affect future urban land expansion in the US, even under the same global constraints (SSPs). Results show localized demographic info leads to more extensive urban sprawl, posing pressures on rural areas.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 10/10/2024

Introducing the FRNSIC framework ("forensic")! 🌍🔍 This new scenario discovery tool dives deep into diverse outcomes, helping identify key dynamics and stakeholder impacts across systems. Applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, it explores drought storylines and aids future adaptation planning

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 11/07/2024

Global ag markets rely on aggregate supply, not individual countries. New weather datasets (GMFD, ERA5-Land) help estimate weather-induced shocks on production and prices. For US corn and soybeans, capturing daily temperature extremes proves crucial.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 03/07/2024

As Texas decarbonizes, widespread adoption of electric heat pumps for heating could spike winter electricity demand. Combined with rising summer cooling needs due to climate change, this raises uncertainty in peak demand patterns and grid reliability.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 19/06/2024

US cities rely on civil infrastructure to access food, energy, and water (FEW) from distant watersheds. In 2017, virtual water transfers via crops and electricity to major cities were 53B & 8B m³, respectively, surpassing physical water transfers. Highways are key for FEW imports.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 12/06/2024

The 2008-2015 Colorado Basin drought in Texas highlights multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses. Despite severe conditions, advanced economy and water infrastructure mitigated economic and societal impacts. Understanding these dynamics aids future planning.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 05/06/2024

New research develops a synthetic multi-risk test case to assess decision-making under deep uncertainty, using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk framework. This approach reveals non-linear effects of multi-risk interactions, crucial for developing effective adaptive strategies.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 22/05/2024

Hydrological extremes like droughts and floods cause complex, cascading impacts across systems. Current decision-making often overlooks these interdependencies. The paper led by Mariana de Brito calls for methodological pluralism to better understand and adapt to these risks.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 16/05/2024

New research from Brian O'Neill and authors highlights the need for shared community scenarios focused on outcomes for human well-being and resilience, rather than just drivers of change. This approach can enhance the comparability of studies and improve risk assessments across sectors.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 08/05/2024

The relevant paper of this week unveils a flood risk model, merging hazard, exposure, and vulnerability considerations, crucial for robust flood projections. Through a practical case study, it sheds light on key uncertainties and offers a methodology for flood risk assessment

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 24/04/2024

Evaluating E3SM and CESM models' performance in simulating climate variability, the paper underscores improvements in global and extratropical modes across successive model versions. multisectordynamics.org/2024/04/24/m...

multisectordynamics.org

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

John T. Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Adam Phillips, Hui Li, Jadwiga H. Richter, Richard B. Neale, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, Sasha Glanville, Yuanpu Li, Flavio Lehner, Gerald Meehl, Jean-Christophe G…

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 27/03/2024

New research integrates adaptive farmer agents into MOSART-WM hydrological model, capturing dynamic feedbacks between water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. Results suggest US water shortages could drop by 42% with farmer adaptation.

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 13/03/2024

Graham et al. delve into market integration's uncertainty impact on virtual water trading and regional water demands. Virtual water trading could increase by over 500% by 2100. Check out the findings: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Multisector Dynamics @multisector.bsky.social · 23/02/2024

Urban extensification could displace agricultural lands, leading to compromised crop production and reduced yields. Incorporate dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework to examine the implications of future land-use transitions globally. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

nature.com

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium - Communications Earth & Environment

Urban land area is projected to increase by the end of the century, which may impact crop production, and increase land carbon emissions, according to an analysis that combines a market equilibrium mo...

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