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Matthew Savill

@mtsavill.bsky.social
1.2K followers 96 following 88 posts

Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute; recovering former civil servant; all views expressed here are my own.

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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Of course the brilliant @kschake.bsky.social cuts to the heart of the problem.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
'A move by Putin to shift the dynamics in Ukraine could pose a significant challenge in Burnham’s first six months, but if he is able, also allow the Prime Minister to further burnish his foreign policy credentials' writes Rosalind Roberts in the latest RUSI Commentary.
rusi.org
Andy Burnham’s International Debut: Key Challenges and Opportunities
Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces a challenging international context, with intractable problems, but also opportunities to lead and exert UK influence on world events.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
'The Defence Investment Plan offers a sugary hit of headline-grabbing announcements that will drive much of the initial discussion. But on first inspection, there will inevitably be dissatisfaction with many of the answers it provides.' Read for more thoughts and comments by @mtsavill.bsky.social
rusi.org
Matthew Savill Reacts to the Defence Investment Plan
This is a bold bet on technological solutions with no margin for error if procurement is not speedy and implementation rapid.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Can the UK's new Defence Investment Plan deliver on its ambitions? In this analysis, @mtsavill.bsky.social examines the government's latest defence investment priorities, from uncrewed systems and artificial intelligence to the challenges of balancing innovation with military capability.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
'Since the release of Mythos and the promotion around Project Glasswing, we have seen a more widely publicised expression of a growing pattern in the AI industry, ... the gatekeeping of model releases under the premise of security concerns.' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.
rusi.org
Gatekeeping the Frontier: When AI Access Becomes a National Security Concern
The export controls directive limiting access to Anthropic's latest AI models may be the tip of the spear, securitising development in the industry.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
There's plenty more in the article, but it takes a cynical tone because the delay does not bode well for the type of change and ambition set out by the SDR, and matched against the government's own rhetoric.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Spending tricks/honesty: as well as the profile and CDEL/RDEL issue, is the DIP clear about compromises? And what claims does it make about savings and 'efficiencies'? Past reviews (especially 2015) foundered on optimistic assumptions.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Enablers: as well as sexy weapons, what does the DIP say about enabling capabilities and systems, like expanded logistics capacity, information, space-based capabilities, the Digital Targeting Web. If they can't use information more effectively, the Forces won't be more 'lethal'
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Transformation pace and scale: the SDR was a shopping list. The DIP makes that reality, and what it says about new technology, and the skills and concepts required to make them useful, will something about where we are really placing our bets.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Personnel: if 'people are our most important asset', where is money being put on training, terms and conditions and support. If the argument is 'that isn't investment' then we are once again looking at equipment instead of capability.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Focus for investment: before buying equipment, can improve the deployability of the capabilities the UK already possesses. Munitions types and stockpiles, logistics, storage, basing, infrastructure all help make the forces more effective.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Spending profile and type: when is money being spent; is it all in later years (especially after elections)? And how much is resource (RDEL) v capital (CDEL)? If resources are starved, we are bringing in capabilities and services we can't run or sustain.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
It appears we aren't getting the Defence Investment Plan today, and it is back to being published 'soon'! Either way, there are some things to look out for and traps to avoid. 🧵
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
An important point made here by @justin-br0nk.bsky.social: combat power isn't power if you don't have the weapons. One area upon which to judge the Defence Investment Plan (whenever it appears) would be to see what it says about munition types and quantities.
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Dr. Dan Lomas @sandbaggerone.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
💬 "Intelligence was the bedrock of Epic Fury’s short-term success, yet the impact of intelligence on US policy appears to remain limited". ✍️ Comments with @mtsavill.bsky.social for @rusi.bsky.social on US intelligence and the #Iran War. @nottspolitics.bsky.social www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran and the US Intelligence Community
Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dan Lomas (@sandbaggerone.bsky.social) and @mtsavill.bsky.social.
rusi.org
Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran and the US Intelligence Community
Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
As the week wraps up, so does a chapter of GSB. Through the series, Dr Neil Melvin has scrutinised key security shifts since 2021, and in his final episode, he speaks with @shelter-jones.bsky.social on shifting geopolitics across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Tune in: bit.ly/42C0ja4
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
'The use of proxies would help significantly scale attacks against underwater infrastructure in relatively shallow waters, as well as prepare cover positions for strategic sabotage at great depths while denying Russian sponsorship', writes Oleksandr V Danylyuk in the latest RUSI Commentary.
rusi.org
Seabed War: Russia's Secretive Defence Units and Undersea Sabotage Architecture
Classified Russian government document revelations add to concerns that the adversarial nation's undersea threat is both acute and invested towards a further-reaching campaign.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
While you are trying to work out if US and Iranian forces firing at one another means the ‘ceasefire’ is still in effect, read this and consider the challenges both face in achieving their objectives.
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Dr Emma Salisbury @salisbot.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
"All below the threshold of restarting major combat operations" is such a ridiculous thing to say
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
This and most days!
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Listen to @mtsavill.bsky.social discuss the Iran ceasefire on BBC Radio 5 Live with Nicky Campbell. Full episode available here: bbc.in/41hBuzA
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
'If there is less confidence that the US would come to Europe's aid in the event of future war, then that does affect deterrence of Russia and indeed others.' Watch @mtsavill.bsky.social interview with The Sun.
youtube.com
Iran celebrates its own defeat as Trump seeks to  punish Nato allies in dream come true for Putin
DONALD Trump is reportedly demanding Nato forces send warships to unlock the Strait of Hormuz and take on Iran within the next few days. Top European diplomats fear Trump is offering a major ultimatum to the alliance demanding that they fight alongside...
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
When the Chief of the General Staff announced at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference that the Army would ‘triple its lethality’ I was sceptical this was measurable. Here, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds argue that it can and recommend how to do so.
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Dr. Jonathan Schroden @jjschroden.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...
taskandpurpose.com
Here's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to do
The units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
'It is . . . unclear why the UK should divert scarce resources from Europe that would neither be decisive nor influence a mercurial US Administration that does not need them.' writes @mtsavill.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.
rusi.org
Iran War Delivers a Tough Lesson in Hard Power to the UK
Aside from policy differences with the US, the UK's Armed Forces' size and capacity make difficult any large UK involvement in war with Iran.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Throughout the week we've sat down with some of our researchers to capture their insights as the conflict in Iran develops. We have now distilled these conversations into a single video for you. For excerpts from each interview see the below thread. www.rusi.org/news-and-com...
rusi.org
RUSI Experts Assess Escalation and Regional Risks in the Iran Conflict
As the United States and Israel conduct major strikes against Iran, four RUSI experts provide their thoughts after the first few days of conflict.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
An attempt by me to summarise the impact of Israeli and US operations on Iran's capabilities, with thanks to Times radio for having me on. youtu.be/9NCBTxmY-8w?...
youtu.be
How Much Of Iran’s Military Capabilities Have Been Destroyed? | RUSI Military Expert Analyses
YouTube video by Times News
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
New research by Dr Sidharth Kaushal argues Europe must use conventional prompt strike to degrade Moscow’s missile defences or risk the credibility of Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents.
rusi.org
Conventional Prompt Strike in European Military Power
This research paper explores the critical role of conventional prompt strike capabilities in enhancing European military power.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing you can hear from Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Dr Jonathan Eyal on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Listen to the episode: bit.ly/4tTHfR3
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Earlier today Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social & Dr Jonathan Eyal gathered at RUSI HQ to mark the 4 year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Watch the recording; bit.ly/3OLHDkp Not a RUSI Member? Join today: my.rusi.org/membership.html
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Comments from me based on my experience with security clearances (and working in vetting a lifetime ago!).
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Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
What are the takeaways from MSC for Germany, UK, Poland, and France? @rikefranke.bsky.social, @mtsavill.bsky.social, @susmonika.bsky.social & yours truly:
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 15/02/2026
Given budgetary constraints in the UK and France, I expect more stories like this going forward. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
European allies ‘frustrated’ by UK defense paralysis
The U.K. rearmament efforts are hobbled by the country’s fiscal difficulties, which is angering the arms industry.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, what are Ukraine's prospects for peace? Join Maryna Vorotnyuk, Neil Melvin, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Jonathan Eyal on 24 February for an insightful discussion as we mark the anniversary. Not a Member? Join today: my.rusi.org/membership.html
my.rusi.org
Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia’s Invasion
Join an expert panel as they reflect on the prospects for peace, four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
'they [the US] could go after the centres of military power, including Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and maybe the militias that are suppressing the protesters' @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in the below BBC article.
bbc.co.uk
US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?
Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
A few comments from me here. The headline is that the choice of targets and how much the US can strike are both growing, but the question is what can realistically be achieved, especially if President Trump wants both 'decisive' and 'short'. How brittle is the regime? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran?
Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
A good list, and pleasing to see Jack Watling’s ‘Arms of the Future’ recommended.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
'Most governments do not disclose offensive cyber operations. Boasting about capabilities is not the usual game' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.
rusi.org
Layered Ambiguity: US Cyber Capabilities in the Raid to Extract Maduro from Venezuela
The US operation to remove Maduro succeeded despite fundamental ambiguity about what cyber delivered but that opacity has strategic consequences.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
A powerful story from @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social last night, adding details on the human impact of the Iranian regime's behaviour.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
🎙️Tune in to the latest Talking Strategy episode, where we explore how Western nations are evolving their strategies - from historic Cold War approaches to today’s cutting-edge innovations in technology and defence: bit.ly/4pjXumN
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
🚨📅Join us this Friday for an in-depth webinar exploring the future of Venezuela. Our experts will analyse the regime’s trajectory and the pivotal role of external actors. Open to all RUSI members.
my.rusi.org
Webinar: Venezuela’s Crisis: Regional Dynamics and Global Consequences
Join us online for a briefing and Q&A, with a panel of RUSI experts discussing the evolving security implications of the US strikes on Venezuela.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
An important update on previous work, to highlight that the air superiority that underpins so much of Western military power (see recent highly successful operations!) is increasingly challenged.
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Start your week by looking at this; given the initial statements from the US Administration, there must be some doubt as to whether there is even a plan for a transition to democracy, let alone how feasible it will be.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
NEW RUSI Paper, ‘Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence’ by Lukasz Kulesa is out now! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence
To reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, states must narrow their nuclear doctrines, utilise non-nuclear deterrence alternatives and engage in risk reduction.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
🎄Merry Christmas from all of us at RUSI!
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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Detailed but important analysis, with lessons for NATO and integrated air and missile defence planners.
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
🎙️Gen. Robinson brings her military expertise to the Talking Strategy podcast, offering valuable insights that shape foreign policy and drive innovative strategic thinking. 🎧Listen here: bit.ly/4i6uUn3
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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
#HIRING We are seeking a Senior Research Fellow! The role will focus on Russian and Eurasian issues, delivering research projects and enhancing our profile in this critical area. Interested? Apply now or share with your network: bit.ly/3LOmeFJ
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