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Ron

@mrwx4caster.bsky.social
562 followers 179 following 6.5K posts

Atmospheric-Physicist/Professional Meteorologist in applied meteorology & forecasting in the public, private and non-profit sectors. Past President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Professional member of the AMS and RMetS (UK), AGU

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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 3h
Looking at the mid-level pattern and flow (at 500mb), along with cool Low level temperatures (at 850mb) -the rotating upper Low+TROF-e-ness keep's most of ONT cool, breezy during the day & unsettled with some instability showers at times-for the rest of the week. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 3h
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. Since no precipitation is expected overnight added expected low temps. Active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/GFMbI #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 3h
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 16h
Gotta run... very busy week ahead for me, on/off this platform...will try at least for the 12Z/00Z Syno's. Have a good, safe week. 👍 🏎️........
static.klipy.com
Busy Cat: Can't Talk Now, Got Stuff To Do
ALT: Busy Cat: Can't Talk Now, Got Stuff To Do
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 16h
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 16h
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 16h
I thought I'd drop these "Soil temp maps" (model estimated - 4" down or 10cm at 8AM this morn). #onwx #onstorm The GFS hi-rez does an OK analysis and get thrown off in highly dense urban areas...Rural- not too bad. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 18h
Current radar loop + added the leading edge of the 0C line at 850mb (or ~5k/ft. above you) showing a batch of showers/some embedded storms (thanks to the warm lakes) moving ESE-SE & sinking south. This batch of activity will continue to move SE thru the morning. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Took the latest RAP run- Radar 4cast (P-type) from ~now till 8AM Mon. Scattered showers/mixed with snow in the far north/NEONT, all wrapping around the Low in N. Que. In SONT-the next push of colder air arrives Mon. AM with scat. showers & cool, unstable windy WX. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Next shot of colder air aloft arrives in SONT Mon. AM-which will set the stage for lake effect showers (maybe some graupel mixed in) & a widespread frost Tues. AM. Wet snow further north in the far north of ONT/Quebec. - All short lived,-but a cool week ahead. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Latest hourly HRRR -Radar 4cast~now till 1AM Mon. Scat. showers along a pre-cold front TROF -they weaken, and we end up with widely scat. instability showers for the day. 2nd shot of colder air (mainly aloft) will move into SONT Mon. AM with even more unstable WX. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: Frost Alerts will expire #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Latest regional radar loop for Ontario, zoomed in 4 SONT. Cold front is very evident on this loop, keeps moving East-NE, scattered showers/odd rumble of thunder, no big deal, it's weakening tho. This is the 1st wave of cooler air pushing thru -Next wave Mon. AM #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
...while I brew my coffee🙌...Quick look at RTMA Temperature Analysis (of real data) this morning at 6:15 AM. Coldest air in mid areas of EONT. Probably some patch frost, especially in frost pockets. #onwx #onstorm (Mmmmmmm...the smell of coffee on a Sunday Morn😋)
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
That cold front will usher cooler at first, showers. maybe a local storm, but the arrival of the colder air aloft happens Mon. AM. Lot's of instability sets up post front (warm lakes) both Integrated graupel which helps Lightning production + lake CAPE ramps ups. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Latest 0Z HRRR- Radar + Cloud cover% 4cast from ~now thru 8PM Mon. Cold front crosses SONT ~mid-day Sun. (few showers/risk local storm) cooler air floods in at first,-then even colder air Mon. AM. Instability showers/LE streamers pop up. HRRR also thinking some⚡️ with the front #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/Mfiuo - frost #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
....Well that ramped up faster than I thought, lol Frost alert just released... don't worry, there will be more in the next couple of days😬. 👉 shorturl.at/FPWYK #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Still on track for frost risk-Shot of colder air late Sunday thru Tues AM. for Ontario-But short lived. (blue=below 0C, Black= at 0C, warm colours=above 0C,-all at 850mb)-added mid-level (500mb) contours for air flow + Surface 4cast Temp. Maps for Mon. & Tues. AM (attached to post) #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Latest hourly run of HRRR-Radar + Cloud 4cast (>50% and up) from Now till 1AM Sun. Most of that energy with this system will be focused in NONT, -only risk of a few showers on SUN. for some regions of SONT (mainly SC/EONT) #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Latest hourly run of the HRRR -Radar+Cloud cover % (>50% & up) from ~now till 1PM Sat. Next weather system will likely move from ~west to east across NWONT thru NEONT over the weekend, bulk of the weather (showers) will remain there-slight chance of showers in SONT #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
ONT Summer 2026 Review-Overall-temperatures were higher than normal across the province. Summer rainfall exhibited 3 distinct regional zones: below-normal-across much of NW Ontario & the Far North, near-normal in NEONT & above-normal across SONT #onwx #onstorm (source ECCC/MSC)
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sept. 2026 Monthly review by ECCC/MSC- “Quick Overview” - Mean overall temperatures were warmer than normal across the province, while rainfall amounts below-normal precipitation across nearly the entire province. Attached Chars,Table summary & Sig. Weather review. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Latest hourly run of the HRRR - Radar + Cloud cover % (>50% & up) from ~now till 1AM Sat. Cold front moves, taking the rain cloud out, -cooler air begins to flood in Sat. We needed the rain tho. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Quick look at the current radar loop from the overnight till 6:37 AM EDT-rain continues to move ENE thru SONT. Back edge showing up in N & W of SWONT. A quick look at Radar Estimated rainfall (in inches) last 12 hrs. till 6AM-some random spot checks/values. (attached to post) #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Current HRRR 0Z run -Radar 4cast + Total rainfall "trail" (in inches-scale on top) look's like most places will get a decent shot of rain overnight. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Shot of colder air late Sunday thru Tues for Ontario.-But short lived. (blue=below 0C, Black= at 0C, warm colours=above 0C,-all at 850mb) added mid-level (500mb) contours for air flow. ''Tis the season"...now that it's October.🍂🍁🎃 #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Latest 12Z run of the HRRR18 -radar 4cast-from ~now till 2AM Fri. During the day- patchy light showers, a more concentrated "bunch" later today into the overnight, -main focus is the lower 3rd of SWONT. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Latest regional Great Lakes radar composite-zoomed into SONT. Area of patchy, light showers moving thru SONT, almost due east. On/off showers during the day, more showers arrive later today into the overnight thru SONT. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/0k5Qo -local fog #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The just in HRRR model-Radar 4cast + added total rainfall "trail"-(in inches-colour scale at top) from ~now till 8PM Fri. A fairly active & moderately strong Low & cold front will ride an upper level impulse & develop a large area of rain/showers/storms? for Fri. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Latest Radar + Water Vapour imagery loop keeps the bulk the moisture (scattered light showers) in the ~lower third of SWONT to Niagara for the overnight into Thurs. morning, but the risk for a few light showers will be there for the rest of SONT. (3-8mm SWONT) #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Latest hourly run of the National Blend of Models (Ver. 5.0)-Radar (super blend) + cloud cover% (>50% & up) 4cast -from ~now till Thurs. 8AM. Look's like patchy areas of showers move's into S. NEONT and SONT, again more focused in SWONT. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Latest radar/satellite loop for the Great Lakes zoomed down to SONT. Scat. Area of showers continues to move thru MI moving East at 50 to 60 k/hr. #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm
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Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Latest 0Z of the National Blend of Models (NBM Ver. 5.0) run -Radar (super blend) + cloud cover% (I only plot >50% & up) 4cast from ~now till Thurs. 8AM. Scattered showers move into SONT mid-Aft. #onwx #onstorm
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