iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 22/09/2026

🚨🚨 UPDATE RELEASED 🚨🚨 nflfastR package 📦 v6.0.0 is now live on CRAN. Updates include -- a completely revamped database function update_pbp_db, -- full support for 2026 pbp data, -- various bugfixes, and -- lots of improvements to the stats function calculate_stats()

nflfastR 6.0.0
CRAN release: 2026-09-18

New
Added new function update_pbp_db(), a fresh approach to the database helper. (#544)
Breaking changes and deprecation
nflfastR stopped supporting the 1999 and 2000 seasons because of inconsistent data sources. Data is still available through load_pbp() but we will not fix any issues related to those old seasons anymore. It’s possible to install nflfastR v5.2.0 (with pak::pak("nflverse/nflfastR@v5.2.0")) to parse those seasons if necessary. (#568)
nflfastR now loads raw play-by-play data from season based releases in the nflverse/nflverse-pbp GitHub repository. The legacy repository nflverse/nflfastR-raw is deprecated and won’t update in future seasons. This means that previous nflfastR versions won’t be able to download 2026+ seasons! (#589)
The legacy player stats functions calculate_player_stats*() have been deprecated in 2024 with the release of nflfastR 5.0. They are now defunct and calling them will throw an error. (#590)

Minor changes and improvements
Added "game_id" to the output calculate_stats() if summary_level == "week". (#566)
Fixed a bug where fixed_drive did not increment after a muffed blocked field goal attempt. Yes this happened in "2025_10_NO_CAR", play id 2504. (#567)
Implemented a fresh approach to compute play_type based on play_type_nfl for faster and more consistent output. (#568)
Fixed a bug where nflfastR overwrote the kickoff_attempt variable in the event of a penalty on a kickoff. (#569)
Added various definitions of ‘explosive’ plays to the output of calculate_stats(). It counts passes, runs, and receptions with 10+, 20+, 40+ yards gained as well as 12+ yard runs and 16+ yard passes. (#573)
Added several punting stats to the output of calculate_stats(). (#574)
Added overall fumble counters to the output of calculate_stats() because it was missing some edge case fumbles on offense. (#575)
The play_type variable now possibly shows "pass" or "run" on 2 point conversion plays with a post-snap penalty enforced between downs. This is different from play_type_nfl (which will show "PENALTY" in these cases). (#579)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted fumble recoveries in fumble_recovery_yards_own and fumble_recovery_yards_opp instead of the corresponding yards. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() counted some blocked punts as punt attempts that officially do not count as punt attempts. (#584)
Fixed bug where calculate_stats() overcounted first downs in some edge cases. (#587)
Updated teams_colors_logos after 2026 Titans and Rams rebrandings. (#592)
Added defensive blocked kicks and 2 point attempts to the output of calculate_stats(). (#596)
Fixed bug that led to missing pbp related team stats in calculate_stats() because an internal function did not standardize team abbreviations. (#599)
Thank you to @jdpretorius123, @JoeMarino2021, @lancejames35, @naymikm, @rayrosales66, and @TheMathNinja for their questions, feedback, and contributions towards this release.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 13/09/2026

Almost 100% series conversion rate, sounds like you are right

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/09/2026

Using the market implied team strength, we can also plot each team's opponent team strength over their schedule. I know this viz is overkill but it's fun to look at

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/09/2026

Happy #NFL kickoff day! I looked at the betting markets and determined the implied probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_te...

A table of implied NFL betting market probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule before the start of the 2026 season.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 04/09/2026

🏈 2026 NFL Cap Texture 🏈 @overthecap.bsky.social flipped the switch to 53 player rosters and I summarized their cap texture breakdowns. I like this viz because it shows how teams spread their money. The viz is sorted by cap space. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_ca...

A stacked bar chart where the differently colored bars show how much percent of the salary cap each NFL team spends on rookie, low figure, middle, high, and elite figure contracts as well as dead cap and cap space.

A table shows how much percent of the salary cap each NFL team spends on rookie, low figure, middle, high, and elite figure contracts as well as dead cap and cap space.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 14/08/2026

Testing the boxscore site on rbsdm.com/stats/box_sc... with 2026 preseason play-by-play data. Looks good. So I think we are back for the next season!

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 18/05/2026

Based on all 272 spread lines provided by DKSports, I have computed implied team strengths of all teams (in points above average on neutral field) and plotted them against their average opponent strength (i.e. strength of schedule, adjusted for home field advantage).

NFL team strength vs. schedule strength for the 2026 season, based on DraftKings lookahead spreads. Teams higher on the chart are rated stronger by the betting market, while teams further right are projected to face tougher opponents. The Rams, Bills and Seahawks rate among the strongest teams; the Cardinals and Dolphins face the hardest schedules.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 11/05/2026

We are close to the 2026 NFL schedule release so let's look at the strength of schedule based on Vegas win totals. (Data from DKSportsbook, FDSportsbook, and BetMGM via RotoWireNFL)

Chart showing the 2026 NFL strength of schedule based on Vegas win totals: the Arizona Cardinals are projected to face the toughest schedule (.547), followed by the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. The Detroit Lions are projected to have the easiest schedule (.464). Bar chart ranks all 32 NFL teams from easiest to toughest schedule.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 23/04/2026

Final draft pick probabilities of the picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of now. Sorted by highest remaining probability per pick.

A table shows 2026 NFL draft prospects along with pick probabilities according to DraftKings Sportsbook for picks 1-10.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 21/04/2026

Wow. Jemma looks exactly like my dog. I was completely confused for a second.

Laika. A mixed-breed female dog whose exact lineage is unknown. Her sisters look like Golden Retrievers

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 15/04/2026

Today's update of market implied odd of draft picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 10/04/2026

The #NFL draft comes closer so here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 20/02/2026

Didn’t expect seeing Hadley getting sandwiched so bad today.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 10/02/2026

~~ nflverse data update ~~ 2025 participation data is now live thanks to @ftnfantasy.com and @realfrankbrank.bsky.social. Access with nflreadr nflreadr.nflverse.com/reference/lo... or with nflreadpy nflreadpy.nflverse.com/api/load_fun...

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 10/02/2026

Well, actually 😅 10+ rushing yards correspond roughly to the 90th percentile, while 15+ passing yards are below the 80th percentile.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 26/01/2026

-- Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker -- It feels like we'll be mostly done by tomorrow. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 24/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. 6 down, 4 to-go. News are slowing down until the candidates of the remaining playoff teams are allowed to conduct their next interviews. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 23/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 21/01/2026

Here are OC and DC variants but the data source isn't 100% reliable so there might be stuff wrong or missing.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 21/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. McDaniel may or may not become the Chargers OC. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 20/01/2026

Also took a shot at a OC interview tracker but I am not sure about data quality.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 20/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. No Bills yet, but hopefully soon. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 19/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. No Bills yet, for obvious reasons. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 18/01/2026

This year's #NFL divisional round feels like there are a lot of turnovers? That's correct! Counting in the 8 turnovers in the Texans @ Patriots game (so far!), there have been 17, which is tied for 3rd most since realignment! #HOUvsNE

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 17/01/2026

at least 50% of all remaining openings want Stefanski for a second round interview

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 17/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 #NFL head coach tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam. Please @ me if I am missing something.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 15/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. Harbaugh hasn't been officially announced yet, but I'll take the risk. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 15/01/2026

-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Divisional Round Geo-Rooting Map -- Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location. This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S. Yes, you HAVE to root for your biggest rival. I didn't make the rules.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 15/01/2026

Today's table will start like this

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 14/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 13/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. No Steelers yet, for obvious reasons. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 12/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach interview tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and @cbssports.bsky.social (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 11/01/2026

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/01/2026

-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Playoff Geo-Rooting Map -- Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location. This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S. Enjoy the playoffs!

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 head coach and general manager interview trackers. Data per AroundTheNFL and @cbssports.bsky.social (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 08/01/2026

Today's update of the 2026 #NFL head coach and general manager interview trackers. Data per AroundTheNFL (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 07/01/2026

It's NFL job interview season, and I'll be posting daily updates on the current status. Data per AroundTheNFL

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 05/01/2026

Each NFL team's regular season point differential in the Super Bowl era through the 2025 season. The Seahawks and Texans have reached new high points, while the Raiders and Jets have nearly matched their worst seasons ever.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 04/01/2026

Myles Garrett made history by recording 23 sacks in a single season. Here is the list of games and how he arrived at the number 23.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 04/01/2026

With the 14 remaining #NFL 🏈 games, there are 2^14 = 16,384 Week 18 outcome combinations (ignoring ties). If we calculate playoff seeds for all combinations, we get the following results. It was only today that I realized the Jaguars could still get any seed except #4.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 23/12/2025

-- WEEK 17 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 17/12/2025

-- WEEK 16 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

The chart shows NFL team logos. Their position corresponds to the current probability that the team will make the playoffs this year.
Comets go from the logos to the right and left. Their final position corresponds to the probability that the respective team will make the playoffs if it wins or loses in the current week.
At the end of the comets are the probabilities in percent.
The probabilities are based on 50,000 simulations of the remaining NFL season.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 16/12/2025

-- WEEK 16 #NFL 🏈 Seeding Probabilities -- For many teams, it is practically certain that they will play in the playoffs. This makes the question of possible seeds more interesting. The following table shows seed probabilities based on 50k simulations of the remaining season.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 10/12/2025

-- WEEK 15 #NFL 🏈 Seeding and Pick Probabilities -- Here you can see 1.) The probability per team and seed of finishing the season in one of the seeds #1 to #7, and 2.) the draft pick probability of the top 10 overall picks in the upcoming draft (doesn't show trades).

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 10/12/2025

-- WEEK 15 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 02/12/2025

-- WEEK 14 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 25/11/2025

-- WEEK 13 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

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Sebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 19/11/2025

-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

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