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Andrew Arenge

@mrarenge.bsky.social
469 followers 70 following 530 posts

Penn Program on Opinion Research & Election Studies | NBC News Decision Desk | Usually analyzing digital political ads

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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 11h
Just published a new update to the interactive dashboard tracking paid digital ad spending in all 435 CDs ahead of the midterms: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD... Seems impt that both the pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund & the pro-Dem House Majority PaC are spending the most money in #VA02
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
NEW: We saw a big uptick in spending on Facebook/Instagram ads linking out to ActBlue last month, as we wrapped up Q3 fundraising Talarico has spent $10.3M on Meta ads linking to ActBlue this year. Outside Harris/Biden pages, no candidate broke more than $2.4M in the 2024 cycle
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Latest update to the dashboard tracking digital only ad spending by political advertisers in all 435 CDs ahead of the midterms - ~$108M spent this cycle so far - #CO08 still leads the way - American Prosperity Alliance is outspending others More: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
With all the elections going on, it might surprise folks that the largest spender on Meta political ads on Weds was New York Delivers (paid for by Five Borough Jobs Campaign - and they're bankrolled by Amazon) Here's their spending over time
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We're seeing an uptick in the use of the word "corrupt" or "corruption" in Facebook/Instagram political ads this year Daily spending is on the rise (highest since '20). It's also making up a larger percentage of daily overall Meta political ad spending (over 4% - which is a lot)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Just published an update to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending targeting all 435 Congressional Districts: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD... Here were the top CDs with the largest amount spent over the previous 7 days + the advertisers spending the most in CDs
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
We're approaching the point where the amount spent on Google political ads daily is going to cross the max amount spent from 2022 cycle 3 causes - influx of $$ in '26 - cord cutters leading to platform change - Kalshi's spending is considered political, despite some being sports
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Just published the latest update to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending across all 435 congressional districts: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD... - Up to $103M spent in CDs - First CD to cross $4M (hello #CO08) - First advertiser to cross $7M
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What do the states SC, NV, NH, NM, MI & VA have in common....cause that's where Andy Beshear's PAC (In This Together PAC) has been geotargeting digital ads like this for the last few weeks on Facebook + Instagram Let the race for 2028 begin...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
At this point, the data indicates that James Talarico has spent more money than Jon Ossoff running these joint fundraising ads on Facebook + Instagram Ossoff - ~$8.2K - $9.3K Talarico - ~24.4K - $25.5K
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Earlier today, Jon Ossoff + James Talarico started running joint ads across both of their Facebook + Instagram pages raising money for a joint fund Contributions are split between Ossoff, Talarico, Georgia Federal Elections Committee, & the Texas Dem Party (videos below)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
We're about 2 weeks out from the total amount of spent on all Google/YouTube digital political ads in 2026 surpassing the total spent platformwide on all Google political ads from the 2020 prez election Approximate daily spending this year is also higher than the equivalent day from 2024 as well
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Here's the digital political ad spending on Meta + Google's platforms in #FL27 - Maria Salazar's district (includes data thru Sept 8) It's likely underestimating the true number a little - there are ads geotargeting only a few zips that aren't included aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Google political ad archive is saying over $38M was spent on digital ads on their platforms over the past week. If you had to guess - which state do you think saw the most spending? (the answer will likely surprise you)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Was curious how spending on Facebook & Instagram political ads mentioning "data center(s)" has evolved Def capturing recent prevalence (~1% of all 2026 spending is included) 2020 outliers are Meta ads about COVID (not sure how they got included) 2nd graph is spending by advertiser from past month
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
It's been a while since I've been able to publish an update to the dashboard tracking digital political ad spending in all 435 Congressional Districts: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD... Just passed $100M spent in CDs this cycle & we haven't quite seen the money bomb that we're expecting
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Outside of the days surrounding the Biden -> Harris swap in July 2024, estimated daily spending on Google digital political ads this year is essentially tracking (or beating) spending from the last presidential election
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
James Talarico's campaign spent $366K on Facebook + Instagram ads on Friday (the most recently available daily spending data) This is his 2nd highest day of spending (only beat by the day his interview with Colbert got pulled) Over 80% of the spending was out of state #TXSen
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This started running a few hours ago & he hasn't spent much money on it (thus the "Low impression count" flag) but seems notable to flag that Dem Senator John Fetterman is running this ad on Facebook/Instagram based on his appearance at yesterday's GOP Convention www.facebook.com/ads/library/...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Google has reversed themselves. Last night when I looked, these digital political ads from America PAC going after James Talarico were "removed for a policy violation" by Google. This morning, they are back up and running on their platforms.
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
NEW: Google has flagged & removed some digital ads the Elon Musk backed America PAC is running in Texas going after James Talarico for violating their political ad policies I believe the ads removed were this one (which is still running as an ad in Texas on Facebook + Instagram)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
NEW: The Elon Musk backed America PAC started running paid digital ads in various Senate races over the weekend largely focused on the transgender issues Here's a🧵of some of the ads They're running on Facebook, Instagram + Google First up, #TXSen ad going after James Talarico
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
UPDATE: Digital political advertisers spent ~$66.7M on Facebook/Instagram ads linking to ActBlue so far in 2026 This is far more than on Meta ads linking to WinRed (~$2.1M in 2026) James Talarico & Abdul El-Sayed were top spenders in Aug (~$1.1M each on ActBlue ads last month)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
According to the individual ad data released by Google in their political ad archive, cumulative spending on all digital political ads across Google + YouTube in 2026 recently surpassed the **total** amount spent on similar ads during the last midterms (in 2022)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
I keep tweaking the dashboard that's parsing the digital political ad data & tracking spending across all 435 Congressional Districts for the midterms This week I added spending by party across all advertisers to each specific CD page Dig into the data: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
We have seen a recent uptick in the amount being spent on Facebook + Instagram political ads mentioning "socialism" or "socialist" but its far less than spending from 2020 Back then, over 1% of all spending on Meta political ads mentioned it. Right now it's 0.33% of all spending
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Elon Musk's America PAC just started running their first paid digital ads this year on Facebook/Instagram, including this one featuring NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani This ad is only running in Maine Data indicates their Meta ads are targeting specific folks in ME, MI + NH right now
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
We're up to ~$93M that's been spent on Meta/Google digital political ads targeting specific CDs this cycle Seeing uptick in spending Dem + GOP advertisers are roughly equivalent in daily spending (~$225K per day right now) Dig into CD + advertiser trends here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Steve Kornacki is live right now on YouTube for another Election Night Kornacki Cam: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVQV...
youtube.com
Steve Kornacki analyzes results from South Carolina's GOP Senate runoff | Kornacki Cam | NBC News
YouTube video by NBC News
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Steve Kornacki is breaking down the FL, WY + AK primary election results live on YouTube right now. Tune in: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVFy...
youtube.com
LIVE: Steve Kornacki analyzes primary election results in Florida, key updates from WY, AK
YouTube video by NBC News
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Daily spending on digital political ads running on Google + YouTube this year has been in line or higher than the comparable day from the 2024 cycle (outside of Biden/Harris switch at the end of July) Super curious to see how this evolves as we get closer to the November election
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
One thing I'm incredibly excited about: we've added a new way to break down the targeted digital political ad spending in 435 CDs You can now look at the data by which party advertisers are supporting (Dem/Rep/None). Allows you to see nationwide trends - but also trends in each CD!
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
For folks interested in #MISen Dem primary, here's spending on Facebook/Instagram political ads linking to an ActBlue page [Year to Date] Mallory McMorrow - $1M Abdul El-Sayed - $1M Haley Stevens - $39K [June 2026 only] McMorrow - 0 El-Sayed - $639K Stevens - $17.5K
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Everytime I run this analysis, I’m always blown away by how much Pete Buttigieg is spending on fundraising and list building right now. He’s the fifth largest spender on Facebook & Instagram ads linking to ActBlue right now and isn’t currently running for anything
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Spending by Troy Jackson on Facebook + Instagram political ads linking to ActBlue January 2026 - June 2026 ~$5.5K July 2026 ~$237K
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Digital political advertisers have spent ~$57.2M on Facebook/Instagram ads linking out to ActBlue so far this year (~$9.3M spent in July). This is far more than the amount spent on Meta ads linking to WinRed (~$1.5M so far this year, ~$218K in July)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
With ~100 days to go until the midterms, it's a good time to reshare this dashboard tracking digital ad spending in every CD across the country Can see trends by district or advertiser ~$80.5M has been spent across Meta + Google so far this cycle aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
While there's been a significant drop off in spending after the June 2 primaries, seems notable that spending this year on Google political ads is still pretty elevated We're only just seeing daily 2024 spending consistently surpass 2026 spending (increase in 2024 is pegged to Biden->Harris switch)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Fundraising ad running on Facebook + Instagram from Dr. Annie Andrews that was launched within the last hour She's 11th on my list of top spenders on Meta ads linking to ActBlue so far this year. Has spent ~$862K on these ads in the first half of 2026: bsky.app/profile/mrar...
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Within the past few hours, the Maine Democratic Party started running this paid digital fundraising ad on Facebook + Instagram. It's only running in state. "Our principles do not bend based on party affiliation. We told our own nominee to withdraw. Now we have zero dollars and zero days to waste."
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
🚨 Graham Platner's campaign has paused all of their Facebook + Instagram digital ads. When I looked last night, they were running 10 fundraising ads. This morning, that number had dropped to 7. When I just looked, all of them have been paused
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
I just got this Katie Porter political ad - over a month after the primary and in a state that is no where near California
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
NEW: DNC has stopped running any digital fundraising ads featuring Graham Platner within the last few minutes Took a screenshot of fundraising ads they were running at 3:31 PM - there were 3 versions running at that moment in time About 5 minutes later, they had been removed
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
McMorrow spent $1.2M+ on Facebook/Instagram political ads this year Should have probably seen this coming when we didn't see a significant uptick for Q2 fundraising deadline (she spent $1M on Meta fundraising ads: bsky.app/profile/mrar... & was the 7th largest spender on these ads this year!)
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
For folks interested in #MISen Dem primary, here's spending on Facebook/Instagram political ads linking to an ActBlue page [Year to Date] Mallory McMorrow - $1M Abdul El-Sayed - $361K Haley Stevens - $21.5K [June 2026 only] McMorrow - $128K El-Sayed - $75K Stevens - $3.4K
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Digital political advertisers have spent ~$48.1M on Facebook/Instagram ads linking out to ActBlue so far this year (~$7.9M spent in June) While there was a surge around yesterday's Q2 fundraising deadline, the peak isn't as large as peak from end of Jan 🧵with other insights
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Just published an update to the interactive dashboard tracking spending on paid digital ads geotargeing all 435 CDs: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD... A few insights - ~$76M spent so far this cycle on paid digital in CDs - Saw huge spike around NY races last week that has dissipated
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Reposted by Andrew Arenge
NBC News @nbcnews.com · 01/07/2026
LIVE Kornacki cam: Watch Steve analyze Colorado primary results. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW1h...
youtube.com
Kornacki Cam: Watch Steve analyze Colorado primary election results | NBC News
YouTube video by NBC News
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Got this ad from NRCC on Twitter Went to go find it in the Twitter political ad data - but it’s not there Despite publishing 3 new datasets a week, if you look at the raw data, the Twitter political ad data hasn’t been updated since March Quite concerning going into the midterms
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Andrew Arenge @mrarenge.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Been tracking spending on digital political ads targeted at specific CDs for a while Saw a significant uptick in spending last week (driven by NY + MD primaries) Due to how Meta releases things, data is always delayed. Chart is thru June 21 More here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
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