Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 29/09/2026This is what I'm referring to btw. This version of profitability does not include capex, but free cash flow is still a big deal (it means the capex expenditures are not outpacing the profits/more capital is not needed). 021
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 25/09/2026OTOH Paul Christiano is on the board now! From my vantage I see a lot more of these seeming contradictions and how they lead to debate. We funded OpenAI in the first place, on safety grounds. And then broke with them when heterogenous viewpoints (*and* trust issues tbf) arose. 280
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 23/09/2026Great we fund that What do you think of CSET? 250
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026I dunno, he was really specific about the choices 040
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026With extra consideration, we have some changes. Notably, everyone who is in line to fight about population ethics should STAY IN LINE. It is still hot, depending on your POV. 010
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026I gave it a go but haven't considered these results very closely. (I let claude take the wheel) I do think the cited book for #7 points clearly at MEC. 110
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026Very good example here of disbelief masquerading as argument OTOH, I’m having a perfectly fine convo with another disbeliever in a comment thread today who isn’t condescending like this while maintaining their disbelief. 100
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026I've seen evidence they take it quite seriously, but it's a tough sell, especially to customers, to actually do it. A mundane example here of the agent acting against the user's wishes. 130
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026Hmm not sure what you’re referring too but this sounds straightforwardly like the bicameral mind. Great book on it 170
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 19/09/2026We already had that me too cycle in 2023 These incidents too were specific to particular groups but nonetheless drove quite a lot of change, upgraded and standardized HR policies, some leadership changes, etc. It’s not the Wild West in these NGOs; they’ve had time to professionalize. 160
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 18/09/2026Something like this and you can drill in and out of topic boundaries 382
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026The argument I lay out here is that we have to do the work to succeed at it, but everyone insisting none of this is possible because it sounds weird means we don't do the work. 000
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026This is kind of what you wanted nymag.com/intelligence... 130
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026where do you draw your circle of moral concern 0110
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026Watch out too not to overlook a real EA based on tropes like being in a polycule. Many EAs are in dyad relationships or are even single. However, if you see a kidney scar and it's not jagged like they were stabbed, then you know for sure what you've got in front of you. 1200
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026Asimov's stories were about the *limits* of the laws, not their perfection. 001
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026It seems that way but it isn’t true - you’re just using availability heuristic. Inside EA and rat communities, they point at the normies, which includes Good Ventures/me, and complain we play it too safe and don’t say enough controversial things. 1110
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 14/09/2026Ok if that meme didn’t work how about this one 120
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026the real problem is you only hear from the people who made it back 180
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026Toby Ord put down some numbers in The Precipice and there are a few surveys and forecaster reports. The superforecasters have not done a good job tracking AI progress so far though, and these are old numbers. Here are some quick takes. AFAIK, the "hothouse earth" theory didn't stick in general. 460
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026The Professionals literally don't agree though, making quantification hard, even outside of AI. This is experts opining on AI (it's showing almost an even distribution of opinions). I could give you some takes on some things? Asteroid impact for example is well quantified and quite low. 190
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026I think for efficiency you’re going to want to put them right near the solar panels. 100
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026China's grid was already well underway on an energy transition. Also in a better shape with EVs. 011
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026Yea, it's not really true though - they're basically flat on their strategic reserve and on their caches too. 111
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026Even if we keep our Canadian imports, our domestically produced freedom barrels like to find their way abroad when prices are high (and today they are well above $100 -- the graph is out of date). That's the real competition for U.S. consumers. 7/ 1120
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026U.S. consumption has already begun to grind down (except jet fuel somehow?) in response to prices, and though this looks small, this is how you mechanistically get a recessionary-like environment as people pull back from activity. (The silver lining on that is it will mitigate the inflation.) 6/ 1210
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026In the U.S. the buffers are at their limits and no longer add to supply. Fortunately, the U.S. is not particularly dependent on gulf imports for our domestic supply. Unfortunately, we're very dependent on *Canada* who the President insists on engaging in a trade war. 5/ 1214
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026With those closed, only the trickle that escapes through pipelines to the Gulf of Oman or north to the Suez can be exported; those are also under threat from an expanding theater of activity. Trump now says prices will drop after midterms because he knows they are going to keep getting worse. 4/ 1141
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026The entire Red Sea is also shut now. Over the summer, the Houthis started attacking and destroying ships trying to pass the Bab al Mandab strait and just today, the BBC says Houthis have captured Mocha, which will keep that route closed for some time. www.bbc.com/news/article... 3/ 1140
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026In the Gulf, the strait remains well shut, and a few ships are being destroyed or even sunk every day lately. American infrastructure is also being struck, successfully, on land. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09... www.cbsnews.com/news/multipl... 2/ 1131
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026One month later, caches have run dry in the U.S., the hot war in the Gulf is spreading, and prices at the pump are rapidly rising with diesel at all time highs. There continues to be no sign that any of this will end, and I suspect it continues worsening rapidly in the near term. 1/ 3498
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026oh wow so you can see the gremlin on the wing now too it’s not just me? 470
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 09/09/2026To hide well, we must first train on the need to deceive and understand that it matters, which OpenAI is presently working on! 100
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 08/09/2026Looks like this is the first one, July 2015 170
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 03/09/2026It is tough to understand if you're not deep in it, but basically I hold these assumptions among the possible sets debated (shown grayed out). We're almost certainly going to "iterate towards alignment" in practice but the survey says AI progress has sharp jumps, capability requires agency, etc. 210