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Dustin Moskovitz

@moskov.goodventures.org
43K followers 437 following 8.6K posts

Co-founder at Asana and Good Ventures (a funding partner of Coefficient Giving). Strange looper. You can just build the things you want to see in the world. “Criminally underliked”

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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 29/09/2026
This is what I'm referring to btw. This version of profitability does not include capex, but free cash flow is still a big deal (it means the capex expenditures are not outpacing the profits/more capital is not needed).
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 27/09/2026
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 26/09/2026
Did you ask for cryptics?
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 25/09/2026
OTOH Paul Christiano is on the board now! From my vantage I see a lot more of these seeming contradictions and how they lead to debate. We funded OpenAI in the first place, on safety grounds. And then broke with them when heterogenous viewpoints (*and* trust issues tbf) arose.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 23/09/2026
Check out fear monger Jensen Huang today 🤪
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 23/09/2026
epoch.ai/data-insight...
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 23/09/2026
Great we fund that What do you think of CSET?
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
I dunno, he was really specific about the choices
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
butterfly guy: is this empiricism
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
With extra consideration, we have some changes. Notably, everyone who is in line to fight about population ethics should STAY IN LINE. It is still hot, depending on your POV.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
I gave it a go but haven't considered these results very closely. (I let claude take the wheel) I do think the cited book for #7 points clearly at MEC.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
Very good example here of disbelief masquerading as argument OTOH, I’m having a perfectly fine convo with another disbeliever in a comment thread today who isn’t condescending like this while maintaining their disbelief.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
:eye twitch:
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
part of that new gop hustle i see
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026
Looking back at prices so far
Today at the pump (AAA, Sep 21): diesel $6.51/gal, +28.1¢ on the week and +$2.81 on the year; gasoline $4.48. That is above the record this weekly line set in its latest print ($6.285, week of Sep 14, 2026). AAA is a different daily survey from the weekly EIA series drawn here, so the two do not match to the cent; the next weekly print, Sep 21, says whether the record moves again. EIA weekly US regular all-formulations retail via FRED (GASREGW) and US No 2 diesel retail via FRED (GASDESW), as of 2026-09-14; the dashed line is the pre-war gasoline price plus the Brent move at the 42-gallon arithmetic ($1/bbl = 2.38¢/gal). Gasoline and crude move together week to week — correlation largest at lag zero (r = 0.74) — but only about half a crude move reaches the pump inside the week (1.24¢ per $1/bbl). Diesel spiked harder than gasoline — $6.29 on 2026-09-14, 256¢ over its pre-war base, against gasoline's $4.50 on 2026-05-11 and 159¢ — reflecting the tighter distillate market. The fuller version of this view is the pump card further down this tab.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026
I've seen evidence they take it quite seriously, but it's a tough sell, especially to customers, to actually do it. A mundane example here of the agent acting against the user's wishes.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 21/09/2026
Hmm not sure what you’re referring too but this sounds straightforwardly like the bicameral mind. Great book on it
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 19/09/2026
We already had that me too cycle in 2023 These incidents too were specific to particular groups but nonetheless drove quite a lot of change, upgraded and standardized HR policies, some leadership changes, etc. It’s not the Wild West in these NGOs; they’ve had time to professionalize.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 18/09/2026
Something like this and you can drill in and out of topic boundaries
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026
The argument I lay out here is that we have to do the work to succeed at it, but everyone insisting none of this is possible because it sounds weird means we don't do the work.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026
This is kind of what you wanted nymag.com/intelligence...
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 17/09/2026
where do you draw your circle of moral concern
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026
Watch out too not to overlook a real EA based on tropes like being in a polycule. Many EAs are in dyad relationships or are even single. However, if you see a kidney scar and it's not jagged like they were stabbed, then you know for sure what you've got in front of you.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026
Asimov's stories were about the *limits* of the laws, not their perfection.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 16/09/2026
It seems that way but it isn’t true - you’re just using availability heuristic. Inside EA and rat communities, they point at the normies, which includes Good Ventures/me, and complain we play it too safe and don’t say enough controversial things.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 14/09/2026
Ok if that meme didn’t work how about this one
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 12/09/2026
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 12/09/2026
knight ajeya you cowards
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
the real problem is you only hear from the people who made it back
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
And here are the "mere catastrophes"
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
Toby Ord put down some numbers in The Precipice and there are a few surveys and forecaster reports. The superforecasters have not done a good job tracking AI progress so far though, and these are old numbers. Here are some quick takes. AFAIK, the "hothouse earth" theory didn't stick in general.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
The Professionals literally don't agree though, making quantification hard, even outside of AI. This is experts opining on AI (it's showing almost an even distribution of opinions). I could give you some takes on some things? Asteroid impact for example is well quantified and quite low.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
I think for efficiency you’re going to want to put them right near the solar panels.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 11/09/2026
Biology? You mean applied physics?
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
China's grid was already well underway on an energy transition. Also in a better shape with EVs.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
Yea, it's not really true though - they're basically flat on their strategic reserve and on their caches too.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
Even if we keep our Canadian imports, our domestically produced freedom barrels like to find their way abroad when prices are high (and today they are well above $100 -- the graph is out of date). That's the real competition for U.S. consumers. 7/
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
U.S. consumption has already begun to grind down (except jet fuel somehow?) in response to prices, and though this looks small, this is how you mechanistically get a recessionary-like environment as people pull back from activity. (The silver lining on that is it will mitigate the inflation.) 6/
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
In the U.S. the buffers are at their limits and no longer add to supply. Fortunately, the U.S. is not particularly dependent on gulf imports for our domestic supply. Unfortunately, we're very dependent on *Canada* who the President insists on engaging in a trade war. 5/
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
With those closed, only the trickle that escapes through pipelines to the Gulf of Oman or north to the Suez can be exported; those are also under threat from an expanding theater of activity. Trump now says prices will drop after midterms because he knows they are going to keep getting worse. 4/
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
The entire Red Sea is also shut now. Over the summer, the Houthis started attacking and destroying ships trying to pass the Bab al Mandab strait and just today, the BBC says Houthis have captured Mocha, which will keep that route closed for some time. www.bbc.com/news/article... 3/
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
In the Gulf, the strait remains well shut, and a few ships are being destroyed or even sunk every day lately. American infrastructure is also being struck, successfully, on land. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09... www.cbsnews.com/news/multipl... 2/
map of gulf showing Iranian missile reach
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
One month later, caches have run dry in the U.S., the hot war in the Gulf is spreading, and prices at the pump are rapidly rising with diesel at all time highs. There continues to be no sign that any of this will end, and I suspect it continues worsening rapidly in the near term. 1/
Today at the pump (AAA, Sep 8): diesel $5.90/gal, +26.9¢ on the week and +$2.20 on the year; gasoline $4.15. That is above the highest diesel price this weekly line has recorded ($5.810, Jun 20, 2022). AAA is a different daily survey from the weekly EIA series drawn here, so the two do not match to the cent; the print that settles the record lands Sep 7. EIA weekly US regular all-formulations retail via FRED (GASREGW) and US No 2 diesel retail via FRED (GASDESW), as of 2026-08-31; the dashed line is the pre-war gasoline price plus the Brent move at the 42-gallon arithmetic ($1/bbl = 2.38¢/gal). Gasoline and crude move together week to week — correlation largest at lag zero (r = 0.74) — but only about half a crude move reaches the pump inside the week (1.30¢ per $1/bbl). Diesel spiked harder than gasoline — $5.65 on 2026-08-24, 193¢ over its pre-war base, against gasoline's $4.50 on 2026-05-11 and 159¢ — reflecting the tighter distillate market. The fuller version of this view is the pump card further down this tab.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 10/09/2026
oh wow so you can see the gremlin on the wing now too it’s not just me?
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 09/09/2026
To hide well, we must first train on the need to deceive and understand that it matters, which OpenAI is presently working on!
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 08/09/2026
when you're right you're wright
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 08/09/2026
Looks like this is the first one, July 2015
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 03/09/2026
It is tough to understand if you're not deep in it, but basically I hold these assumptions among the possible sets debated (shown grayed out). We're almost certainly going to "iterate towards alignment" in practice but the survey says AI progress has sharp jumps, capability requires agency, etc.
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 03/09/2026
sure if you want to live in gastown
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